The tweet (not you) mentions they “innovated” but the setup looks the same as something out of the Vietnam War.
Grifman
23093
They learned the netting reinforced by wire can defeat Russian Lancet droves, and that is now SOP. You have to read more than the first post in the thread. Posts 6-10 in that Twitter thread describe how the UA learned and adapted to the threat of Lancet drones.
One thing we maybe haven’t appreciated as much as we should is the work and competence of Ukrainian journalists.
I read this story in a Danish journo trade rag about the Kyiv Independent - I dunno how well it will translate - and it was quite an eye-opener for how difficult all of this is for people who are serious about their work as independent journalists.
It’s impressive how skilled, and mature and dedicated these kids are. They’re the real deal, and it sounds to me like they’re making the right decisions, and putting out some great stories.
I tried looking for an English language story on these guys that was equally good, but I couldn’t find one that was as focused on the journalism itself, so I did a rough and tumble translation and put it in a pastebin:
Strollen
23095
I had the same reaction as @jpinard. What am I looking at, now after reading the whole thread, which was terrific, I understand. I really appreciate your super informative posts, but heads up that there is more than a single tweet to read would be helpful.
The adaptation speed of the Ukranian army is amazing. The US army used to be considered the best at this cycle, but I think the Ukrainian army, with a looser less ridge command structure is doing even better.
To be fair, the US Army hasn’t had to adapt like that in ages, either. We haven’t fought a conflict like this one since Korea.
Russia conspiring with Turkey to keep Finland & Sweden out of NATO?
Dejin
23098
Unfortunately unsuccessful (or so claims Tehran)
[Edit] More at WSJ
Shards
23099
Thanks for taking the time to translate that
You’re welcome man. I thought it was a really good article and I couldn’t find one in English I liked more :)
Grifman
23101
Apologies, I thought when a Twitter post says it is 1/16, it would be clear that there’s a thread of 16 posts that should be read to get the whole story. But I will note so in the future.
Grifman
23102
I think it is great that Ukraine is getting Western tanks, but I don’t think they are going to be game changers. I do think they are better than Russian tanks - at least anything other than the T-90 which may be their equal, but from the videos we see (which may not be a good sample) tank on tank fighting isn’t as common as we may think it is. Most tank kills seem to be from precision artillery directed by drones or ATGM, both of which the Russians have plenty of.
On a related note, I think this is going to be a long war. Everything I have read says that Putin is digging in and planning to fight this out as long as it takes.
Despite their mobilization issues, poor logistics, lack of proper training, poor morale the Russian army continues to fight, and in some cares to advance, be it ever so slowly. There are no indications that it is going to collapse. In the two Ukrainian offensives we saw no large surrenders of Russian troops which would be an obvious sign, but that didn’t happen.
Of course I could be wrong - an army doesn’t collapse until it does. The German armies in Stalingrad and Normandy were fighting hard and looking strong - until they didn’t. But I just think this is going to go on a lot longer than most of us think it is. My question is the West really prepared to continue to supply Ukraine in a long drawn out war? Because they are going to need a lot more tanks, guns, and ammo if this is what happens. The current set of western tanks will only be the first installment.
Ex-SWoo
23103
A lot of factors at play - probably safe to assume that the West will fund the war throughout 2023 but 2024 is a crapshoot. Will depend on the economy and how much progress Ukraine makes post Winter. I expect this to be a key issue in the US 2024 elections if it drags on past this year.
Aceris
23104
Hahahahahahaha nope.
You need a genuinely good ATGM to take out a modern western tank. How many of those do the Russians have? How many operators trained and willing to get into position to use them.
I’m not saying the Western MBTs are wonder weapons or will change the course of the war, but they are very impressive platforms and have the potential to really demonstrate why the tank is not obsolete. (At least not against the Russians).
Also with HIMARS, Brimstone and drone spotters the Russian armor is going to have to be mobile near the line of contact, which is going to cost them a lot of their defensive advantage.
The Russians don’t have any precision artillery, as far as I know.
Offensive operations are in fact hard, especially if you want more than a small advance. So I do agree that this will be a long war unless Ukraine is able to develop either a successful deep operations concept (which I think is unlikely given a more organised Russian defence, relative numbers and limited modern MBT quantity and logistics) , or able to cripple the Russians ability to supply and coordinate their defensive forces - HIMARS is a good start but not enough. Bring on the F16s.
Alternatively the Russians might just totally run out of tanks and IFVs and collapse. Their losses so far are absolutely astonishing, and we don’t know what proportion of their stockpile are serviceable. This is one of those questions we can’t know the answer to until it happens.
Really? Why would everyone suddenly change their mind in 2024? Are the contiental Europeans really that flakey and useless?
I can see the US changing course in 2025 post presidential election of course, but that’s a whole other disaster.
Yeah, I can’t see any clear reason for a sea change in 2024. It may well be a campaign issue in the US, but the election is at the end of 2024, and nothing will change before that, if at all.
Ex-SWoo
23106
Well - certain countries like Germany seem to take its cues from the US so if the US signals a draw down, they may follow suit and start a separate chain of events. But to be fair I was primarily thinking about the level of US support potentially tapering off after 2023 but Europe is its own beast.
Even the US draw down is predicated on the scenario where the US falls into recession and even the democrats start to question the war spend going into the election cycle - we’re quite a ways away from that right now but who knows what the year will bring.
I suspect that if the Ukrainians get sufficient Western MBTs they can concentrate them more effectively and use them as a spearhead more successfully than they have been able to do with their existing systems. We haven’t seen epic tank battles so far for a lot of reasons. So far the Ukrainians have been able to, either by choice or necessity, engage Russian armor with a variety of systems, many of which are far cheaper and probably more effective than their existing tanks. The arrival of a bunch of modern MBTs though might change that equation dramatically. Tanks are not always the best way to counter other tanks, but when you can field something like an Abrams or a Leo 2 against, well, most anything else, the calculus can definitely change.
Janster
23108
Russians have the Krasnopol Krasnopol (weapon system) - Wikipedia
I also agree with Grifmans assessment, Ukraine are in narrow straits now.
I’ve seen a Russian source saying that they’re very short of the new generation ATGMs. What’s getting issued is older weapons of dubious ability against modern armour. Probably another case of Russia developing new modern systems but not having the money for full production.
Janster
23110
I don’t get this, Russia is short of this and that, I don’t think they are short of anything, let alone Konkurs anti-tank missiles…they were short of manpower…that’s being fixed now…
