Because this is a syndrome we’ve seen repeatedly. Pre-war comparisons between NATO and Russia would compare Western tanks with T-90s and T-14s. In fact the T-90 has barely been in combat, and the T-14 barely exists. The mainstay of the Russian army is still the T-72.
Pre-war comparisons were between the SU-35 and Western aircraft, with talk of how awesome the SU-57 was going to be. But in fact, SU-35s are still outnumbered by Migs and Sukhois from the eighties, and the SU-57 might never get to production.
So the Konkurs ATGM is a decent wire-guided missile that went into service in 1974. Russia has lots. The modern Kornet is the ATGM talked about as the huge threat to the Abrams tank. It even has at least one Abrams kill from Iraq. But again, it turns out that Russia didn’t have the money for mass-production of the new shiny thing. So very few are being issued.
Enidigm
23113
I think the point is that obviously Russia will win if you just sit there and let them go on for a decade trying different things, the same way France would win a war against Belgium, eventually, if given enough time, even if it’s down to people hitting each other with swords.
That’s why the Western powers need to provide enough equipment to Ukraine to enable the kind of next generational capabilities to attack and destroy Russian divisions, not just hold them back.
JonRowe
23114
I worry that the longer this conflict drags on, the more time Russia has to get over all of their fuckups and finally get organized and properly armed and mobilized. The more time they have to get their shit together, the more they will get their shit together.
There will always be corruption, failure and greed in Russias army, but as the conflict drags on, and the Kremlin continues to push, their Army will just get better through sheer attrition and time on the lines.
It is clear that sanctions haven’t done enough to slow down Russia thanks to China and India, among others.
Ukraine really needs to push Russia back to their borders ASAP, or this will never end.
What’s the pathway to Russian forces being ‘properly’ armed? I don’t see it.
JonRowe
23116
Time to get their shit together.
I just don’t think they have the industrial base / capacity to crank out modern weapons at the pace they would need to in order to be ‘properly’ armed. And I don’t see China doing it for them; they may have the industrial base and capacity, but they’d far rather use it to make consumer products for the world.
JonRowe
23118
I mean, the worry is, as time goes on, they can get that industrial base together. China or other allies might cave a bit more, help out somewhat. China sells goods to Russia too.
And they don’t need modern weapons to be properly armed. As long as they can provide artillery shells and guns and men to fire it, they can dig in for a long time and fuck up Ukraine.
They have so many men and natural resources to toss into the grinder. Giving them more time makes it easier to tap into that well.
Yeah; getting ALL of their forces “properly armed” will likely never happen. Rather, it’s a question of whether enough will eventually be. There’s still some value to the poor slob with crap gear either being cannon fodder or reinforcements as long as their military has enough more effective units to be the point of the spear.
Sure, but I was following the thread about the very large difference in capability of modern weapons vs. Soviet-era equivalents. If the western democracies are willing to provide Ukraine with the former, the Russians can’t match them, and they won’t be able to match them in any foreseeable future IMO. They can’t e.g. convert a lot of car factories into tank factories to build modern tanks, because they have damned few car factories relative to the western democracies. China could, but won’t, because China isn’t going to wreck their economy to help Russia conquer Ukraine.
It’s just my view. I could be wrong!
Latest ISW assessment:
Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wagner Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut after the Wagner Group’s offensive in Bakhmut culminated with the capture of Soledar around January 12. The Wagner Group’s assault on Bakhmut has likely culminated with its surge on Soledar. Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut have not made significant gains since capturing Soledar around January 12. Conventional Russian units are now participating in fighting in Bakhmut to reinvigorate the Russian offensive there. Combat footage posted on January 20 indicates Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) are operating around Bakhmut as the footage shows a Russian BMD-4M – niche mechanized equipment exclusively used by the VDV.[1] A Russian source reported that Wagner and VDV elements conducted joint operations in Bakhmut on December 27.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense has been increasingly reporting that Russian VDV are operating in the Bakhmut area since early January 2023, indicating conventional Russian forces are augmenting if not replacing likely culminated Wagner forces in the area.[3] Wagner Group forces - particularly convicts - have taken heavy causalities in Bakhmut since the fall of 2022. One anonymous US official reportedly stated on January 5 that the Wagner Group’s forces have sustained more than 4,100 deaths and 10,000 wounded, including over 1,000 killed between late November and early December near Bakhmut.[4]
Enidigm
23122
Sadly i think the most likely outcome - I mean my first instinct when i heard of the invasion - is that Ukraine loses all its territory east of the Dnieper river, including Kyiv, and is forced to turn Lviv into its capital.
I don’t know what Russia gains though except an empty steppe and the tombs of its soldiers - by that time most Ukrainians will have left when it becomes clear that is going to be the outcome of those territories.
But most likely isn’t certain. For one thing, the death of Putin will send Russia into a tailspin, and it’s not clear how long he has to live. 5 to 10 years? Certainly at this point millions of people, and many nations, want him dead, and this is entirely his war that has no reality outside of his despotism. Second if Ukraine gets enough equipment that can start really taking Russian units to task - i’m pretty sure US planners are pulling their hair out thinking how relatively easy a full US expeditionary force, supported with air and sea assets, could turn the Russian invasion into a big pothole.
I think a plausible theory about the current power structure is that corruption is the unifying ideology. (Maybe corruption and nationalism.) You can’t remove corruption and lies from the system (without an enormous top-down shock) because corruption is the main unifying incentive structure that keeps everyone pointing in the same direction.
What’s more, any version of Russia “getting its shit together” requires an outbreak of selfless behaviour on the part of, e.g. supply officers actually issuing kit instead of selling it on the internet, contractors properly building military and industrial facilities instead of half-assing on manpower and materials in order to keep their personnel cuts, or industrialists actually doing the hard work of building domestic supply chains when historically the path of least resistance has been to buy Western goods and paint the Russian flag on them.
But all the people capable of genuine patriotic selflessness have been expelled by the system; because people who won’t play the game are always a threat to the majority who do.
Still, and very recently, we’re reading about Gerasimov firing subordinate Generals; not because they’ve done a bad job, but because they’re not “his” people. I’m not sure that a system that’s still exhibiting this behaviour is capable of real change.
JonRowe
23124
I guess my worry is that as time and the conflict drags on, the corruption might ease a bit because it simply has to.
As an outsider it is obvious how much corruption fucked up their army and its ability to wage war, but what does the Russian population think?
Can they keep up the facade in a long term conflict? Or does the pure necessity to actually act like an army mean they are forced to be less corrupt?
I am sure there will be cronies willing to rise up the ranks now by being competent and using the war to further their careers. There just have to be. The longer this drags on, the less sick and corrupt their army gets, just out of neccessity
Janster
23125
I think it’s utterly naive to think people are selling stuff on the black marked in these war times for Russia, that would not only be dangerous but also be detected rapidly and get you shot.
The damage that has been done was done in peacetime and was hard to notice, now however I would expect corruption to be gone except perhaps people bribing their way out of conscription.
As others pointed out, Putin is in the long hold, they are gearing over to wartime production, we who live in the west, will be faced by the fact that we’re going to have to be in for the long haul aswell.
So lets give them Amraams and F-16 , sooner the better.
I can think of at least one other guy who made the mistake of thinking the same. JK!
I have no idea what Russian industry can or can’t do - they certainly seem to be having issues - but I think @JonRowe has a point in that time seems to work for the Russians.
If the Ukrainians can’t move the lines, either the Russians will smarten up, and move them themselves, or, in the case of stalemate, the Ukrainians may end up having to give up some of their land in negotiations, because we genuinely do not care about Crimea or Donbas in the way they do.
This I doubt. Unless Putin takes a page from Stalin and institutes a regime along the lines of “Anyone caught stealing gets a bullet” there are going to be massive inefficiencies.
It would be an especially gutsy call to make, because Putin steals his ass off. As does everyone around him.
The thing that makes corruption so horrible and insidious is that people genuinely have no qualms about taking stuff that isn’t theirs, regardless of the consequences. There is no conscience. Short of the threat of death, they’ll keep stealing.
JonRowe
23127
I mean… really? They are not going to hold themselves to the same standards as the people not in the inner circle. The army is large, and there are plenty of cronies not popular enough to get the axe to scare the rest of them.
Enidigm
23128
That’s why (imo) Putin really needs to be taken out. Many people worry that this will cause additional chaos and a more murderous response, but really, Putin has completely destroyed the ability of Russian political civilization to exist without him. From the very top to the very bottom, everything now exists in service to vague precepts pushed from on high. But there’s no political structure on the top, it’s just the whim of one guy. All these generals, heads of “states” (Federal Constitutent Entities), news media heads, oligarchs, anyone with any power at all, all of that power was granted explicitly by the hidden Tsar and can be taken away at any moment by him. The whole political structure is a sham from top to bottom with no legitimacy. Whoever or whatever exists when that guy goes will likely cause all these spinning plates either to fall, spin away, or stop spinning altogether.
I could be wrong, but I’m very sure they hold themselves to the same exact same standards as the inner circle.
No one in any position that matters would have their jobs if they hadn’t paid the inner circle to have them. You know?
It’s like a biker gang. You want a vest, you need to add to the treasury. Responsibility and ownership is for people who don’t have the required money or clout.
It’s not naive, it’s documented every week.
Janster
23131
Would only agree to this before the war, it was documented well then, but now? They won’t imprison you now, they will shoot you or send you to Bakhmuth. The stakes are too high for that kind of corruption.
Anyway, Perun newest video should be viewed in its entirety, its very important.
