Grifman
23912
I really hate this message, because what it means is that Ukraine has just one shot at this. If they don’t break through then at best, the war will be stalemated, at worst they will be forced to the negotiating table with a losing hand. All Russia needs to do is hang on to what they have, and they will keep it.
I hear you, although it’s an important message deliver; I just wish it hadn’t been so publicized. I guess they’d better not miss their chance to blow Russian soldiers up. This opportunity comes once in a wartime.
(sorry; couldn’t resist that last part)
Bremerhaven was IIRC one of the big REFORGER ports, and a lynchpin off US logistics planning back in the day. No surprise it can handle all of those tracks.
vyshka
23915
I would hope they can get enough republicans to vote yes, and pressure to McCarthy to bring it up for a vote.
I could’ve sworn this was linked earlier, but either way, this is the most detailed description of the air war I’ve been able to find.
It sounds very cat and mouse, using the threat of HARMs to temporarily take down Russian radars, but I think the worry is giving the Ukrainians the ability to pull off some kind of raid that might conceivably start a war between NATO and Russia.
I don’t know how to gauge the ability of F-16s to pull off something like that, but suppose the Ukrainians start losing, suppose that Western support starts to wane, how would that affect their decision-making?
Either way, to hear Juice tell it, it does sound like F-16s could make a difference. I’m not sure long range artillery wouldn’t be better overall, but since the grunts and the pilots are both saying they want this, you have to believe them.
Tank fishing for drone operators:
Ukraine’s defence minister looking cheerful:
Igor Girkin continues to be pessimistic:
So, the prospects for an offensive on the “Belarusian Front” are assessed as unlikely from the point of view of common sense, but possible precisely because (as the practice has shown) “there are no idiotic decisions that our General Staff could not make.”
From the point of view of common sense, to re-advance on the Kyiv, Chernihiv and (possibly) Volyn regions means extending the front by another thousand kilometers without hope of decisive success.
Much more probable and much more meaningful than the creation of an active “Belarusian Front” are the broad offensive operations of the RF Armed Forces from the territory of the border regions of the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions. Firstly, such an offensive in any case can make it possible to re-create a “foreground” on the territory of the enemy, which makes it difficult to strike at Russian own territory.
The third (and last) likely theater of operations for a major offensive by the RF Armed Forces is Zaporizhzhia. From a theoretical standpoint, the offensive should be carried out there in any case, simultaneously with the strike from Belarus and/or the Russian border area. But it can also have independent significance or become the direction of the main blow (whereas all other actions will be distracting).
General conclusion: at the moment, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation DO NOT HAVE A SUPERIORITY OVER THE APU ANYWHERE, that would guarantee the success of a large-scale strategic offensive. It is possible (theoretically) to create only one “shock fist” in one of the above directions, using the rest as auxiliary ones. (Diverting and restricting attacks can continue, of course, on the Donetsk front).
But, in any case, a full-scale offensive battle will very quickly and inevitably lead to very large losses and the depletion of those resources that have been accumulated as a result of previous mobilisation and other preparatory actions. And, regardless of successes, it will not lead to the complete defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (precisely because of the lack of strategic reserves).
Of course I have no clue, as no one in Kyiv has returned my calls, but I would imagine that if something happened and Ukraine felt its back was to the wall, there would be little incentive to hold back on anything.
abrandt
23923
Well clearly Putin needs to be careful/restrained(maybe start negotiations) out of fear of escalating the conflict and causing Ukraine do something crazy.
Ramzan Kadyrov asked governors and mayors to stop talking about losses. There’s a practice of public acknowledgments of dead heroes, governors send condolences to widows, kissing babies etc. Last week using such reports independent media counted more than 1000 dead Russian soldiers. Again, it’s not some estimation, it comes from official sources.
It seems that the million Russian soldiers are already on the frontline and attacking in full force. Ukrainians report record losses on Russian side too. It’s very likely Russia needs some sort of victory to commemorate the anniversary.
KevinC
23925
Interesting to see the Ukrainian numbers corroborated. I always assume they’re inflating or “rounding up”, like most nations do in war.
KevinC
23926
According to the UK, Russia has committed 97% of it’s army in Ukraine.
Also says no fighter jets from the UK. Guess we’ll keep kicking that can for a while yet.
I have no doubt Ukrainians are inventive with some of the numbers. But Russian losses are still staggering. 1064 dead last week I’ve mentioned are the lower number, those are people that officials mentioned themselves on different occasions, it’s safe to assume plenty were not mentioned.
abrandt
23928
I saw something about Russia having removed most of the troops stationed in the Kola peninsula in order to send them to Ukraine. Pretty clear they don’t actually think NATO is a threat to attack Russia. Also pretty clear Russia isn’t actually going to be a threat to launch a conventional invasion of any other neighbors for quite some years.
During protests in Belarus in 2020 this guy fought a lot to let Hockey World Championship happen in Belarus. Alas he failed but it seems he liked the country.
I’ve heard some political scientists making theories about new agreement between the state and elites in Russia. Previously the idea was that you support the authority and can live the Western way of life, bring your family to London or New York, all that matters is loyalty. Nowadays the part about living in the West no longer works so the theory is that there’s even more money going to the elites and that the persecutions are stopped. Previously Russian mayors and governors and senators very often ended up in jail, mostly for “corruption”, but really due to FSB showing who’s boss or some form of internal struggles. According to this theory, all of this will disappear and Russian elites will also get guarantees of safety in exchange for the lost opportunities in the West. This makes Russia a good retirement plan for its allies, especially for Europeans who might not lose their homes in Europe.
So when can ya’ll take Tucker and Rupert back?
