23992

The best way for this to end is for Russia to suffer a crushing defeat as soon as possible. We should give Ukraine whatever means they need to make that happen.

23993

Haven’t they kind of been selling the whole convict strategy by promising people at home that they’re gonna feed them all to the Ukrainians, so they won’t have to deal with them coming home?

Some of those guys were plenty dangerous before they ever went to the front. Judging from the shovel incident, I’d say they’re pretty dangerous to their officers too.

23994

Seems like that would be a counterproductive message in their ongoing efforts to recruit more prisoners.

23995

From what I hear of the Russian prison system, it sounds like a “Do you want to die quick or slow?” proposition.

I’m not sure how many cellphones or radios they have behind the walls, but I’ve seen rumors that members of the mob have been able to pay to avoid combat once they sign up.

23996

Interesting, what do you hear? Any good links or sources? I know the gulags of the soviet regime had an unsavory reputation, but I wasn’t sure what the intervening decades had wrought any changes into the Russian prisons.

23997

You hear things here and there. Usually when someone important ends up in the system. Navalny, Pussy Riot, Brittney Griner.

From what I hear, the system is set up deliberately to punish, not to reform anyone. Suffering is a feature, not a bug.

This is a Polish think tank financed by the state, so take from that what you will, but it tracks with what I’ve heard at least.

Most Russian penal colonies and prisons were built back in Stalinist times. Despite several attempts to reform the prison system in Russia, they still resemble the Soviet Gulag: human rights violations and torture are common, the prison service is a machine that knows well how to hide pathologies and earn extra money (for example, by taking bribes and engaging in financial swindles). Among the most alarming statistics regarding the Russian prison system is the high rate of recidivism. It has increased over recent years and is proof of the inefficiency of the prison system as a whole.

However, this inefficiency is not a problem for the government because in Russia the prison system is mainly a part of the machine used for exerting control over society and ensuring the stability of the system of power.

23998

Got it, so basically like the US prison system. Thanks for the link!

23999

Probably just the way it is worded, but my question would be why hasn’t the increase already happened (guessing it has, hopefully, been ramping up since we started giving them artillery) instead of being planned.

24000

Yeah, but more like the Texas version :)

You’re welcome!

24001

I think I’d rather be in prison in the US than in Russia.

24002

They always have more than you think they do. Especially in a state where corruption is commonplace.

24003

A less than optimistic view of the future of the war:

24004

I found this to be odd framing.

Russia has chosen to stand and fight for the areas they’ve withdrawn from. The point of strangling supply to Kherson was to make that choice untenable and force a withdrawal. Same thing with Kharkiv. Russia didn’t choose to give up that territory, Ukraine was able to find and exploit weaknesses in the line and forcing their hand.

I think I get what he’s trying to say, but to me it read a little like “Sure, they’ve had successful counterattacks, but wait until Russia really starts trying to hold the territory!” which seems silly to me.

24005

This would be best for all of us. Peace would also help with the economic concerns, and help stave off domestic fascism. Biden needs to let Ukraine have everything, including a pony, if it helps them win.

24006

I think it’s a little more nuanced than that. Russia didn’t have the manpower to simultaneously rigorously defend their gains and also continue to push elsewhere, so they opted to barely defend certain areas. Ukraine, benefiting by way of near omnipotent intelligence from allied nations, was able to exploit that.

So I think it’s less, ‘wait until Russia really starts trying to hold the territory’ and more, ‘let’s see what happens when Ukraine tries to take something Russia wasn’t holding onto via paper only.’

Kherson was certainly the closest to that, but it was always going to be a tenuous defense at the end of a long and vulnerable logistics chain. That and their rear guard was surprisingly adept at holding off the Ukrainians until the bulk of the Russian forces had successfully retreated. That retreat, more than anything else that Russia has done over the last year, gives me concern that they’re still a competent force that could be dangerous in the right situation.

24007

I mean, the article isn’t wrong to poke holes in General Milley’s statement that Russia has already lost the war. There’s a ton of uncertainty in war, e.g. at the start of the invasion Putin, the CIA, and most of the West thought that the war would be over in a matter of days or weeks. And a year on, I don’t think anyone knows for certain what the eventual outcome of the war will be. All we can really do in the West is shower Ukraine with weapon systems and give them the best chance possible.

Edit: oh right, I finally found the quote I was looking for:

“The outcome corresponds less to expectations in war than in any other case whatsoever.”
– Creative Assembly

24008

I think that his statement is correct when you consider that Russia has already failed in it’s probably goals, which was to quickly take over Ukraine and install a friendly government.

Russia could, in some theoretical sense, orchestrate some military victory at this point (I do not believe they will), but I do not see any ending for this confirmation which has Russia “win” in the sense of actually being better off in any way compared to their starting situation.

At this point, the best they can hope for is to minimize their losses… And really, doing anything other than withdrawing is going to fail at that.

Every day that this goes on, Russia loses more.

24009

On a strategic level, Putin has absolutely lost. NATO is stronger, the EU is stronger, his military is received to be incompetent and weak. It’s not unlikely some of the Federation members that were members solely out of fear are going to take the opportunity to leave.

Even if he manages to crush the Ukraine military it’ll be as calm and peaceful after as Afghanistan was. And so damaged economically, it’ll never be the power he was hoping to steal, at least not without grotesquely expensive rebuilding, which good luck with that.

Oh yeah, and the sanctions and Europe weaned off his his supply.

He remains a strategic genius.

24010

Yeah, I believe it. I can’t imagine that the convicts are oblivious to their purpose as cannonfodder, and I don’t think Prigozhin has been doing much to obscure it either.

I just think given the general level of brutality, some might see an out there, even if it seems crazy to us over here.

24011

This video is pretty intense. Pretty close quarters fighting from a trench with enemy forces very close.

Just a warning that while it’s not gory, you can see someone get shot in the video.

I think about all the WW2 documentaries and footage I’ve seen over the years. Given how common video recording devices are these days, the amount of footage from this war is going to be crazy.