24212

yeah those extra 4 seconds of ICBM flight time will make all the difference.

edit: …actually no, it’s not like the ICBMs are taking off from the absolute border, are they. No flight time difference. I’m a dumdum, he’s a dumdum, everybody’s a dumdum.

24213

I mean, he’s not wrong. The quickest way to ensure a “lasting peace” would be for Russia to antagonize a NATO country (and especially Poland as they’ve literally been preparing for exactly that for around 50+ years now) and bring the full force of NATO down upon themselves. However, I’m pretty sure his version of “lasting peace” doesn’t include the fall of his own government, destruction of his country’s military and economy, or the ultimate “lasting peace” of a nuclear winter, so he should probably just STFU.

24214

This means a lot of additional jumps for a Russian person to see something that does not resemble his own home, as in a wasteland ruled by bandits.

24215

Imagine his horror, after pushing back Poland’s borders and expanding their own, to discover that Poland is right on their border again!

24216

It feels like Medvedev has decided that his role is going to be bad cop, so he and Putin are playing bad cop/worse cop with the world.

24217

Here’s some Dutch trolling:

24218

This video is a fantastic bit of propagandizing:

24219

Medvedev seems like the Russian version of our MTG.

24220

During his presidency Medvedev was a funny naive guy who blogs and tweets and keeps Putin’s chair warm. Basically this:

440_1673f

Navalny did a lot to change his image by exposing his corruption schemes and vast wealth. During the pandemic he started writing in Telegram and quickly got a “Kill off the survivors” nickname. His transformation is very bizarre.

24221

Good trolling, from the Dutch.

24222

Poland giving more tanks to Ukraine.

24223

Hey, Medvedev, could you keep talking about Poland’s borders? Maybe we can get Poland to donate an extra armored division or two if you keep it up!

24224

A good report by a well-known newspaper on the evolution of the Biden-Zelenskyy relationship.
Gifted link

24225

This was an interesting point that I hadn’t thought about before:

Why did Zelenskyy, of all people, not buy into US intel and warnings?

Because the diplomatic relationship had been compromised by Trump, and worsened by the incoming administration’s (understandable) tendency to treat Ukraine as lower priority.

24226

Dutch ambassador tells the Chinese they are full of it:

24227

I found that very interesting also. It is the flip side of what I told Janster. If you’ve grown up in a good government country like the Scandinavian countries, it is really hard to understand a place where corruption is the norm. The converse is true, Zelenskyy was born in the corrupt Soviet Union and grew up in almost as corrupt Ukraine. He had to assume that Trump’s pressure was the norm and not actually the most corrupt President in American history by a huge margin.

So naturally, Zelenskyy thinks the Biden warnings are part of a chess game involving both the US enemy Russia as well as internal politics.

Donald Trump is not only an ongoing weapon of mass distraction but also a weapon of mass destruction to US foreign policy, the fallout from his presidency will last for decades.

24228

This agrees with what I have seen hinted at - the Ukrainians are holding their lines now with a mix of Territorial forces and remnants of veteran units, while amassing veteran retrained trained units for an offensive with Western armor.

A Ukrainian offensive, either late spring to mid summer, will be the defining moment of the war. If the Ukrainians can break through and engage successfully in mobile warfare, they could roll up and collapse the entire Russian line.

But this is high risk and I think they only get one shot at this. The West is depleting much of their military inventory to make this possible. If they fail, the West may continue to support defensive efforts, but another offensive is unlikely, and there will inevitably be push for negotiations from some quarters.

May/June will tell the course of the rest of the war.

24229

For sure. The reality is that the most likely result is probably that this war could drags on for 3 or 4 years more.

Both sides have huge tracts of land they need to recover, if they are to achieve their respective objectives. They need not just one major successful objective, but multple successful offensives

Russia is not capable of this. There is nothing to suggest that they have the capability to defeat Ukraine at all with conventional means unless something drastically changes. They have neither the men nor the material to carry out a decisive offensive - or at least all evidence points to this not being the case. Even if they could successfully mobilize and arm the infamous million men, there is little to suggest this would move the needle. Pressure Ukraine? Yes. Defeat them. No.

But conversely, it is very questionable whether Ukraine will be able to achieve their goals. Their need for material and supplies is also great. They can’t afford to throw their troops away in a meat grinder the way Russia is doing. And they’ll probably only have equipment for one really good offensive - if that is ground down by the Russians, it will probably be a long time before they can build up forces for another one.

I suspect the most likely path to a quick peace at the moment is still Putin being removed from power (either by coup or age).

24230

The Russians need to take and hold land. The Ukrainians need to break the Russian line, encircle significant numbers of troops, and force the Russians to retreat, probably in chaos. While difficult, to be sure, the latter is far more doable than the former at least.

24231

I feel like the US should be giving Ukraine longer range missiles to use in their counter artillery batteries.