Maybe it is right, but at the end of the day, so what? The alternative is to acknowledge that the countries in the orbit of Russia don’t really have a say in some matters, that they’re independent-ish, wink wink.
If the entire neighborhood is trying to get guns to protect from one dude, maybe it’s the dude that’s wrong.
draxen
2682
Further to my earlier post. This one is a few days old now but still relevant.
Yes, I think this is the right take.
It’s always a mistake to pull options off the table. I’ve felt that way forever, but apparently, few political leaders feel the same way. Despite time after time finding out that promising not to do something is no deterrent.
Also, military responses by NATO would have a near zero chance of sparking a larger escalation because Russia can’t afford it. The elites are not going to immolate themselves. NATO air strikes and interceptions on Russian forces in Ukraine, though I agree they are not going to happen, would not prompt any escalation at all because Russia simply loses at every stage. But without the will to take even that minimal risk, the West again is going to spend more time hunting for whom to blame at home than doing anything effective abroad.
Nobody’s going to say that yes, we will go to WWIII over this matter, please lob nukes as as soon as you can.
And from all the people saying that Putin went nuts, who knows, maybe they’re right, better not to tempt fate.
Again, the history of nuclear weapons since 1945 has shown that pretty much no one, not even the Israelis, the North Koreans, or the Pakistanis for God’s sake have resorted to nukes even when the circumstances were far more dire than they are now in the Ukraine. Nukes cancel each other out in most cases. The only nuclear threat would be if Ukraine still had them, as an existential threat is widely acknowledged as the only legitimate use case for nukes.
Aceris
2687
Putin is implicitly threatening nuclear retaliation if that happens. Maybe it’s a bluff but you’d have to be pretty brave to call it.
Well, you then choose surrender of all principles of collective security and international order to fear. At some point you have to decide what you really want out of the world. If this sort of posturing from Putin is enough to dissuade people from intervening, we should be honest and admit that we don’t really care about a system of international law or principles, and agree that might makes right. Otherwise we are epitomizing hypocrisy once again. Mind you, this is not surprising, as we have been hypocrites ourselves for many years.
I’d honestly rather us just admit that we don’t give a shit about anything other than our own immediate interests and that we don’t mind if the world goes to hell, than posture about principles we are not willing to actually defend.
Aceris
2689
I think if we were willing to intervene in Ukraine we should have more actively made that clear by extending NATO membership or some facsimile thereof and staging forces ready to act. Military intervention now would be too little, too late.
Also, does anyone else find the CCP statements on this really chilling? They’re clearly loving this and talk of a complex historical situation is clearly getting ready for Taiwan.
Everywhere that might be next - we need to make sure we are ready and put troops there so that if an attack occurs - it’s war. We need to cut Russia out of the international order, put troops in Taiwan and the baltics, get Sweden and Finland in NATO, and reduce dependence on China economically - US needs to sign up to the TPP.
You have to pick your battles. If we were going to threaten military action over Ukraine, we had to prepare for that a year ago. Instead we clearly said “You can have it, and we’re gonna make sure you pay for it.”.
Putin has plainly threatened nuclear war if NATO intervenes, and you’d have to be out of your gourd, like David Davis, to want to call a bluff like that. That’s not something any sane person would do.
Ukraine is done. The frontline is now Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, especially given Putins fucking insane speech the other day.
Of the two major political parties in the US, one is on the side of the Russians, and the other knows they would be effectively politically nullified and then ousted from power if they tried to take an active role in defending Ukraine militarily. I don’t like that situation, but it is the situation.
Oh, yeah, y’all are correct in that we missed our chance to do anything already, and what’s done is done. And definitely there is zero leadership or will in Washington anyhow. Those things alone though should tell us how fucked we are in the long run.
Aceris
2693
Canada needs to occupty the US and install a puppet government. It’s the only way to fix this. /s
I don’t know if it’s a problem of will on both sides. It seems more like FDR in 1939 to me, only worse. The people on the right keeping the US out of the war in 1939 weren’t actually blaming FDR for the war, were they? Maybe, but I don’t recall that.
Aceris
2695
I think the current GOP largely resists historical analogy, to be honest.
I don’t blame Biden at all. I do blame Merkel.
draxen
2696
Out of curiosity please could you explain your reasoning?
Is it because of German reliance on Russian gas?
It’s too early to say how everyone feels about the new normal, but I think the will to pony up is there.
I’m from Denmark, and we’re already looking at breaking defense paradigms that are close to a century old, specifically the stationing of NATO-US troops in country, and most likely on the island of Bornholm, which is the most sensitive place in the kingdom relative to Russia.
The Soviets occupied Bornholm after the Second World War, it wasn’t liberated until 1946, and there’s been an unspoken agreement that we wouldn’t station NATO troops there, in order to avoid poking the bear. That’s going out the window now.
It’s also worth noting just how much of a threat Putins speech was to the Baltic Countries. The way the Soviet Union treated Ukraine is nearly identical to the way it treated the Baltic States, so if the idea is to reestablish the Soviet Union, they are under serious threat at this point.
Enidigm
2700
I would now expect Russia to tip toe violate a NATO country’s sovereignty just to test the alliance’s response.
