2701

It’s more than just the economic side - Merkel never attempted to confront the “appeasement is good” view in German politics. At every step Germany has undermined efforts to hold Russia responsible for its actions. In the end she was in a position to strongly influence not just German policy but EU-wide policy to Russia in response to Syria in 2013 and Ukraine in 2014, and at every step she favoured empty protests and futile negotiations. She placed an incompetent in charge of the German defence ministry annd refused to even pretend to try to meet NATO military spending targets, while at the same time preaching a “strategic autonomy” which meant the EU states became less reliable allies to the US.

If Germany is doing the bare minimum and protecting it’s economic interests - as it has up until now, that doesn’t only affect German policy but means the other European states ended up saying “why should we make sacrifices if the largest richest state won’t”.

I mean in effect Merkel was “leader of the free world” while Trump was in power. I don’t think she ever really understood that or the responsibility it involved.

What happened last night has shocked a lot of people who thought this would never happen and Putin just wanted frozen conflicts on his borders and to be treated like the leader of a superpower rather than a third-rate kleptocracy. So as @MelesMeles said the old “don’t poke the bear” consensus is dead - we just have to hope something effective replaces it.

2702

All I want is Gerhard Schröder on an EU sanctions list.

2703

Yeah, I didn’t really wanna mention it, because it’s almost too depressing to think about, but clearly, if Trump beats the confused mummy that will apparently be representing the democrats in the next election, then all bets are off.

He seems more dedicated to Russian interests than American ones.

2704

Come on, man.

2705

Understood - thanks :)

2706

Part of me wants to say is this really necessary? and another part of me wants to say fuck right off. If I’m being honest.

2707

Maybe Europe shouldn’t need American help to deal with a third rate kleptocracy.

2708

It’s not quite harsh but true, but America is a winner-take-all system with a minority-majority party in lock step with one another and a majority-minority party unable to move or function without the other party screaming about the end of the world - maybe the worst possible arrangement for a functioning democratic political system. So you end up with compromise candidates like Biden that exist and win only because of these peculiar American political dysfunctions. In a more functioning democracy, younger more dynamic Democratic candidates would win.

So i understand the frustration of observers from foreign countries looking aghast at American’s increasingly institutionalized incompetence.

2709

I expect it will be some time before the Russian military will have the excess capacity to try something like this.

2710

Can I just make a request to us all to please not turn this thread into a US politics thread. Especially not right now.

2711

Seconded. And if you insist on blaming any of this on Joe Biden, maybe start by explaining what, exactly, he did to cause it, or what he could reasonably have done to prevent it, and how.

2712

Ideally not, although I think the kleptocracy angle has gone out the window with the invasion of Ukraine. This is gonna cost Putin and his friends a lot of money. Either Putin has lost his mind, or he views himself as a Soviet revivalist.

It would be extremely easy to take the Baltic States if NATO didn’t intervene. That’s what we’re speculating about, and events in the US are crucial to that question.

One candidate clearly wants to promote Russian interests, the other one doesn’t.

If NATO didn’t trigger Article 5 in the event of a threat against the Baltic States, it would be the easiest thing in the world for the Russians to take them. Far easier than Ukraine. It would also be the end of NATO as an entity, but that was already in question during the last Trump presidency.

2713

I mean kind of this is the time to test those waters, is what i mean. In a few years NATO’s military capacity will be improved.

I think the logic of testing is to see if NATO defend a NATO country when nobody wants to fight and nobody has any equipment. I suspect Putin wants to just take what everyone who rolls over will give them. I suspect Belarus is about to roll over and admit they’re just a Russian province at this point.

2714

Sanctions worked to get Iran to do what we wanted.

Yeah, and that motivates them to want to change who is in control of the government.

In terms of that article, I don’t think that massive economic sanctions are going to work “swiftly”, but they’ll work if we don’t half ass it.

2715

Then the thing to do was not full invasion of Ukraine to tie up your military for who knows how long. It’s not like poking NATO in the Baltic doesn’t have giant risk.

EDIT: to be clear, I could certainly be wrong. I didn’t think what is happening now was going to happen because I thought Putin was smart enough to know that this could easily be his undoing over the next several years.

2716

It really depends on if Ukraine just surrenders and the rest of Europe tut-tuts but does nothing substantial. The whole fait accompli principle. Europe basically did nothing during the Crimea.

It actually makes Russia’s involvement in US politics vis a vis Ukraine more interesting, as it might well have been a long bet on preventing arms sales.

I’m sure Ukraine - Lithuania - Poland had wished they’d gotten the band back together again now.

2717

In fact, if you think that NATO won’t defend the Baltic States, they’re probably an easier conquest than Ukraine. Ukraine is being invaded because it isn’t in NATO.

2718

I’m hearing talk about Putin’s speech re: the Baltic states but i don’t see it online. Can someone post a link which speech is being referenced?

2719

I fear you may be thinking in decidedly pre-2022 terms here. The world is going to be fundamentally different now and I’m not sure that Putin or his friends actually think this is going to cost them anything in the long-run.

2720

If the western democracies are just going to watch and be inactive, then they should shut up and don’t spill any moral speeches