The thing to remember about this “third-rate kleptocracy” (not that I necessarily disagree with that characterization) is that it’s a third-rate kleptocracy with nukes. That’s the one key reason why we can’t put US troops on the ground in Ukraine, or establish a no-fly zone, or any of those other things we can normally do to a third-rate kleptocracy.
And the whole point of NATO is that it extends the US’s nuclear umbrella over NATO members, and not over non-members, which is why Putin feels he can invade Ukraine, and not e.g. Estonia.
Yeah, a lot of Ukrainians and other people will become disillusioned with all the speeches.
Nukes do not force Belgians and Italians be worried about how sanctions against Russia harm their diamonds and fashion industries.
It was indirect. The logic he applied to Ukraine could just as easily be applied to the Baltic States.
The logic was that Ukraine was a construct of the Soviet Union, and didn’t have any right to sovereignty, which is how the Soviet Union viewed the Baltic States after WW1 and WW2, completely ignoring the nations who lived there, who had various forms of national aspirations (many of whom went on to become partisans like the Forest Brothers, and fought Soviet dictatorship for a while).
(The Germans had similar designs during the Russian Civil War, relying on ethnic German landed gentry in the Baltics to establish German dominion, but that’s a different story)
Like Ukraine, during the Soviet years there was a deliberate effort to settle ethnic Russians within the Baltic States, and since Putin is using those minorities to justify his invasions, that’s now cause for concern.
Sure, I’m saying nukes are the reason we can’t (or shouldn’t) get involved with direct military action. The reason for toothless sanctions is mendacious greed and cowardice, I agree.
Aceris
2726
Oh, I entirely agree.
But although it changes the calculus of what we can do now wrt Ukraine (and I agree with what you say about that), it doesn’t change the calculus of “why can’t Europe deal with this”. France and the UK have their own nuclear deterrants, after all.
I don’t understand? Who’s saying “why can’t Europe deal with this” and what are they proposing? (Honest question, I don’t think I’m parsing you correctly.)
Aceris
2728
I don’t think anyone here is saying that, but:
- There’s quite some emphasis on what the US should be doing.
- European policy over the last 10 years or so has not placed an emphasis on being ready to deal with this.
That was what I was trying to say as part of the posts you responded to I think :)
I feel we are largely in agreement anyway.
I think NATO nations feel some obligation to defend other NATO nations, and I think EU nations feel some obligation to defend other EU nations, but I think that’s about as far as it goes. It should not come as a surprise that neither NATO nor the EU wants to militarily defend a non-EU non-NATO country against a nuclear power, or that they don’t have any mechanism to do so if they did. That mechanism is NATO and (presumably) the EU.
The lack of military support provided for Ukraine is an unfortunate, horrific impetus for other nations to formally join alliances and meet obligations.
Meanwhile…
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1496858198615236610
Aceris
2731
The EU explicitly does not involve collective defence (as if it did Ireland would have found ti much more politially difficult to join (EDITED: I had misunderstood the legal basis of Irish neutrality).
Finland and Sweden have been depending on Russian weakness and implicit security guarantees until now (And their own competent and defence-oriented military forces). They should make that explicit and join NATO. Finland has no desire to return to “Finlandization”.
@Aceris is right. We’ve definitely been skating in Europe. Some of our defense budgets were five times higher during the Cold War. We’ve been spending that cash on a lot of other things.
It doesn’t really matter how Europe feels about the US, or how the US feels about Europe, the US doesn’t want to deal with a Europe under Russian control, and Europe also doesn’t want to be a province in Russia, so even if we’re not, we’re still best friends 4ever. Heart emoji.
We also have little things in common, like freedom and democracy.
That said, it’s now going to be a lot harder to justify our low spending on defense, and I hope we’re smart enough to realize that it’s time to arm up.
Thanks, makes sense. And yeah, a lot of foreign policy since, well, 1945 has focused on what the US can and should do militarily, but for sanctions to work on a European country (Russia), then for sure other European countries are going to have to step up to the plate.
Alstein
2734
Europe has to worry about what happens if we go fascist as well. Europe should be very afraid of that. Trump almost killed NATO.
That said, Europe’s seriousness to me is going to be judged by SWIFT sanctions. If they do that, then Russia feels real pain. I don’t see Europe doing that though.
Yes, I understood that. What I mean is that one can imagine a desire on the part of EU member states to defend a fellow EU member state, but it’s difficult to imagine them wanting to do so with a non-member state.
abrandt
2736
Yes, and I think it would be entirely justified to rush NATO membership to any of those states that would request it in the wake of this.
This invasion is some serious Red Dawn shit with the helicopter attacks deep into Ukrainian territory. I hope Western militaries are paying attention. Man-portable AA seems like it’d be useful just about everywhere right now.
Good luck to Ukrainians. It’s going to be hard to enjoy Elden Ring today without thinking about crazy ass Putin killing errbody.
The whole speech, transcribed and translated.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-transcript-vladimir-putin-s-televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24
Here’s Ben Rhodes and what else needs to be done beyond sanctions. Putin didn’t turn into a madman over night, Russia has been a mafia state for a long time - it’s just that the West didn’t care enough to do anything about it.
No point in talking about military action when countries of the world aren’t ready to pay slightly higher gas and oil prices.
KevinC
2740
I know. :( I’m having a hard time focusing at work, thinking about what’s going on over there.
