2761

The German military in general is a paper tiger. Which was inevitable if you look at and agree with the links above discussing German public attitudes to the usefulness of military force.

NATO is not - in terms of the larger European states the French, Spainish, Italian and British forces are in much better shape than the Germans, although they do have their own issues. And the Poles are not to be discounted either. So while the european forces in NATO are a shadow of what they once were it’s not like the 2022 Red Army bears any kind of comparison with the 1985 Red Army either.

2762

Thread is moving super fast, but the translation was posted upthread earlier, I believe. At least if it’s the same statement I’m thinking of.

2763

Germany is the main weakness. The US has been badgering the Germans since W’s administration to maintain the 2% GPP defense spending that all NATO nations agreed to.

UK has had issues but is trying.

The French seem to be in the best shape. The Poles and other Eastern European NATO nations also recognize the danger (with good reason).

2764

imho, a much needed impetus to cut our dependency on oil.

I am willing to eat less and pay more if it fucks up Putin.

2765

Also really disappointed by the lack of effective area air defence in the Ukrainian military. It seems like this should have been a real priority to deter Russian aggression. Then again this has had so little emphasis in Western militaries that there may not have been an off-the-shelf system they could buy?

Would be good if someone with more knowledge could cast light here - I was shocked to see Russian helos brazenly flying over Kyiv

2766

Thanks for response for NATO. Learned something. But yeah, I should say German/paper tiger. From reports I’m reading, a lot of self-reassessment in Germany today. I do think Merkel/Obama legacies take a bit hit.

One thing I’m seeing is about GOP supporting Putin. Most of the GOP elected are pro-sanctions including those with presidential aspirations. Cruz/Rubio/Hawley are pro -sanction and some case maybe going stronger like Hawley calling for arming Ukraine. I think most GOP voters will be with them so interesting to see Tucker/Fox/JD Vance go more pro-Putin. I think they are out of step but we’ll see.

2767

I think the UK has consistently met it’s NATO target in terms of % of GDP assigned to defence?

2768

Yes but how much of that has been spent on APCs that don’t work, and ships with no way to attack other ships, and strike carriers with planes with no strike weapons, etc. etc. :( Been a massive lack of joined up procurement, largely stemming from a desire to develop stuff in house.

2769

Our staunch allies! george_w_in_2003.gif (I can’t find the exact quote right now.)

2770

They’re pretty special cases. I’m not sure how much it matters. It would be surprising if the Russians started messing with Finland and Sweden. They could, but the Baltics are a far more likely target.

The thing about the Swedes is that they’ve spent way more on neutrality defense than they ever would have if they were in NATO, so it’s based on some really deeply rooted values.

It worked reasonably well for NATO, because we would buzz their air defenses and play tag with their subs (there are some funny anecdotes about Swedish Viggens trying to light up SR-71 Blackbirds heading to the Soviet Union) and I think both sides got some good training out of that.

I don’t know how easy or hard it would be to integrate Sweden or Finland into NATO command in the event of a great war, but I would be very surprised if no one had given it consideration on either side.

The French were outside NATO for a while, but I believe there were specific plans for how they’d jump back in if things got hot.

2771

I don’t really know how you are measuring ‘most’. And in any event, those same guys are blaming Biden for Putin’s invasion.

2772

It has indeed, but in recent years, the army has been massively scaling back in terms of numbers and attitude, and as a soldier my impression is that morale is generally low.

Some of that is because there is no major mission like Afghanistan left, and also a lingering question of just wtf was the point of 20 yrs in Afghan. I know several people with lingering mental health issues and several more veterans who feel used and discarded :(.

There has also been some serious bean counting and cost cutting in the form of lowering the regular army numbers and pretending that increasing the reservist numbers somehow makes up for this.

My battalion and regiment is one of the very best in the Army Reserve but it is a fcuking shambles compared to our regular/parent battalion, and if I was mobilised right now I’d be useless for about 3 months, and that is as a relatively physically fit veteran who has served in a warzone.

Our capacity to respond meaningfully has been kneecapped because it is an easy thing politically to divert spending form the military and towards something like the financial blackhole that is the NHS.

Plus with Covid no one has been thinking about the military.

It takes time and consistent effort to upgrade and maintain military capability, and a huge part of that is down to training and keeping the right personnel, and the army has been haemorrhaging soldiers.

The one silver lining is that if shit hit the fan, there are thousands of veterans like me, and it is easier to retrain a soldier than start from fresh.

The really scary thing imho is that the UK really has only 1 peer competitive military, that of France.

Russia is overall a grade above us I think, as they have been practticing in Georgia, Crimea, Eastern Ukraine etc, in a manner we have not, and the USA is several grades above, becuse of resources, manpower and a general support of the military that is definitely lacking in the UK.

And if the UK/France are the best in NATO (USA aside, which arguably they are (also Turkey does look tough!) or at least the most capable of projecting that force, which the other Europeans will struggle with, then yeah I am not too confident a war would start well, with what we currently have.

HOWEVER, if the will to maintain the war were to hold, then the UK has a history of adapting to things and simply getting better and better, and then throwing that all away once the war is over…

Once again, I am not a defence analyst, just an Infantry soldier who has served, is serving and would actually be very willing to go to the Ukraine.

2773

In a way this is a “beliefs hitting reality moment”, at least for the people lucky enough to be far enough way from it not to be personally involved.

We believed that this sort of thing couldn’t happen again, because the system of trade would make it painful. That self interest would make sure armies weren’t going to be the solution to problems.

Ooops?

2774

The US is lending the UK a couple of US Marine F-35 squadrons because the UK doesn’t have enough F-35s for its own carriers.

2775

I think the point is by the time you know you’re a target it’s too late.

Staying neutral in the Warsaw Pact days made sense for both countries. But the world has moved on. They are EU members. Are they really going to do nothing if Russia invades the Baltics?

2776

The US doesn’t really do air defense missiles that much. You’ve got Patriot on the high end, and then Stingers for the ground pounders. But decades of air dominance has made the Army neglect any medium-range options or AAA systems. (Sgt York basically killed all those efforts in the early 80s)

2777

I really really hope that Europe can collectively step up. GWB squandering our military in Iraq, us spending 20 years in Afghanistan, and the election of Donald Trump has really shaken my faith in our capability and willingness to deal with a situation like what is unfolding in Ukraine. Watching Tucker Carlson, Tulsi Gabbard, and others, it’s clear to me that there is a segment of the US that are effectively agents of the Russian regime. I really worry about a Trump 2.0 who is aligned with Putin and what that means for NATO and Europe.

2778

Reports coming in that the provincial capital of Sumy has fallen.

2779
2780

Yeah. The new British system would have been perfect for Ukraine, but it’s only just entering service - and it works because they were willing to buy the off-the-shelf Saab radar system to go with the excellent missile they’d developed with the Italians. The more traditional UK procurement option would be to enter the systems into service without radar while the UK-designed radar was developed, estimated to enter service in 2030.