The Russia is getting more evil thread

[lordkosc]

Apparently the Chernobyl site is now under Russian control.

Russian forces seize control of Chernobyl nuclear plant, Ukrainian official...

[scottagibson]

@DarthMasta

From what I understand, cutting Russia off from SWIFT means no payments to Russia and Germany and Italy at the very least depend on Russia for gas.

I’m sure this is true, but if the tanks were rolling into Germany I imagine they’d be OK with cutting Russia off from SWIFT. I get that they’re between a rock and a hard place, but there is surely some line they won’t cross?

[Alstein]

I think Putin would have done it back in 2014. I don’t think he’d do it today.

Crimea access was existential to Russia.

[KevinC]

@Mark_Weston

The US has a lot of power to act unilaterally. It’s amazing how regulation of US bank transactions can effectively become a policy that affects all European banks (because of their own needs to make transactions in the US).

I’ve mentioned on this forum before how a British-Iranian friend of mine had her personal bank account closed by a British retail bank that was effectively enforcing US sanctions against Iran. Not because US sanctions had any legal force in Britain, but as I guess some kind of risk management decision that having Iranian customers risked drawing the attention of US regulators.

Good points and interesting anecdote (sorry about your friend’s account, though). Thanks!

[Thrag]

I wonder if Germany’s stance on swift might change with warmer weather.

Today is quite lacking in levity (for good reasons of course). I keep trying to tailor a joke about SWIFT but I’ve got a blank space.

[triggercut]

@Thrag

I keep trying to tailor a joke about SWIFT but I’ve got a blank space.

shake it off

[MelesMeles]

@Thrag

SWIFT

You think Putin would just shake it off?

edit

I suck

[Istari6]

@MelesMeles

@Timex has overthrown a lot of violent dictatorships, you see.

It’s really quite easy. You just have to accept the death of yourself and your entire family, or at least their possible torture and imprisonment. You have to come to grips with the possibility of the loss of their lives and their happiness.

Once you get over that, standing up to brutal regimes is easy.

(This is all entirely sarcasm, just to be clear)

Thank you. I admire Timex’s commitment to principle. I agree with him that sometimes you need to be willing to sacrifice everything to protect important principles. I just wanted to highlight that holding the average Russian citizen responsible for Putin’s regime also needs to acknowledge the incredible costs and risks they face in opposing it.

[DarthMasta]

I mean, sure, but it isn’t, so, what are you gonna do? I imagine Germany thinks chances of being invaded to be pretty much nil, unless it’s tourists during Oktoberfest.

In any case wishing doesn’t change facts on the ground, those countries need to buy gas, and for the moment, Russia is where they’re buying from.

There’s a possibility to buy from Nigeria, Portugal imports from there, Spain probably too, but there’s a project to build a pipeline that’s stalled for some reason, and there’s probably practical issues that would mean not enough gas from Nigeria for the whole of the EU.

The US could also probably be a seller, no idea how practical that is, since geography hasn’t changed.

At the end of the day, the time to fix this was when Russia first invaded Ukraine, years ago, instead of kicking the can. And I think, if at all possible, many people would love to engage in some can kicking even now.

[KevinC]

@scottagibson

Context: Doocy’s ‘question’ was actually just an opportunity to observe that the stock market was down and gas prices were up and what was he (Biden) going to do about that.

I hate this shit so bad. The S&P is down… 0.37% right now. Oh noes.

[TheWombat]

@strategy

Assuming we actually do what most affected governments have been saying - strong sanctions on Russian economy and freeze of Russian assets - how do you equate that with USA/EU not giving a shit about anything but our own interests? There are many ways much more effective than getting into a shooting war with the fourth largest military in the world to strike back if the West is serious - and united - about doing so.

You have a point. I doubt the efficacy of sanctions, because we have not demonstrated the willingness to use them to there full effect, nor have we been willing to take the economic hits to make them fully effective. If we do, perhaps it will be for the best in the long run, I agree. “Serious and united,” however, has been far from the case so far.

[sincilbanks]

A huge proportion of cross border payments use it…something like 50%

[scottagibson]

@KevinC

The S&P is down… 0.37% right now. Oh noes.

The total market index (CRSPT) is basically flat for the day.

[DarthMasta]

I imagine Putin thinks there’s a good chance will for sanctions will only hold for a couple of years. And he’s probably right, if history is any guide.

Maybe I’m talking about what happened the last time Russia invaded, maybe I’m talking about the next POTUS not wanting to sanction Russia, maybe both. :D

[vyshka]

They should use some of the cyberattacks to knock Fox off the air, and add Murdoch to the people being sanctioned. At the very least send him back to Australia or wherever the fuck he came from.

[MelesMeles]

@Istari6

I just wanted to highlight that holding the average Russian citizen responsible for Putin’s regime also needs to acknowledge the incredible costs and risks they face in opposing it.

I completely agree. I think it’s pretty important that we don’t associate the average Russian with the actions of the government.

Likewise, when it comes to psyops and misinformation, some of the people buying into Russian propaganda simply may not know any better. That’s not the same as being cruel or knowingly complicit, that’s simply being misled.

I would also add that a lot of popular uprisings have been met with slaughter, like the Green Revolution in Iran or the popular uprising in Belarus, or the recent uprising in Kazakhstan. Having thousands of good people doesn’t mean much when the regime has thousands of bullets and bombs that will cut them into pieces.

[Soapyfrog]

@alekseivolchok

A week ago even those who said that the invasion is imminent mostly imagined Russian tanks moving borders of rebel-controlled regions, not airstrikes on Kiev.

A week ago the US president explicitly predicted air strikes on kyiv so idk about that

[TheWombat]

Even if sanctions bite hard, what do people think will be their result? Will the Russians withdraw from Ukraine and let things go back to before the invasion? Um, no? In effect, folks are saying that Ukraine as a democratic, European state is dead, and we have instead a new Russian empire to the east. All sanctions may do is at best prevent more incursions, but seems there is an equal chance if they bite too hard they will simply convince Putin that military action is the only foolproof solution to their problems, as as long as he keeps the ball in the court of war he gets to play unopposed.

I mean, unless sanctions prompt a revolt in Russia that ousts Putin and all of his cronies, what is going to change? Nothing, nothing at all. I don’t have an answer, but no one else does either it seems. I’ve seen zero proposals from anyone that offer much beyond damage control. Is that where we are now, is that the most we can hope for? Rather depressing.

[ReptileHouse]

@scharmers

Is anyone freaked out? I’m freaked out.

I’m more freaked out than I had realized yesterday. Had nightmares about this shit going nuclear. The kind I haven’t had since the cold war. I wasn’t missing those.

[alekseivolchok]

@TheWombat

I mean, unless sanctions prompt a revolt in Russia that ousts Putin and all of his cronies, what is going to change?

I think a lot of people who do not see how the dictatorship works from the inside are under the impression it works as advertised. An iron hand controls the country and all that.

Russia is a huge decentralized mess. Putin’s regime is not nearly as stable as your average representative government. Lack of checks and balances and direct influence by the people means that he can not fear people not electing them on the next election, but every night he can fear the elites conspiracy against him. If the leader of some autonomous republics feels that the federal government can’t control him he’ll break away. Plenty of regions in Russia are basically not under control of the federal government.

This operation right now is part of legitimacy ritual. The lack of response to it will keep Putin and his regime in power. This is much more important than any geopolitical considerations, Russian people have to know it’s pointless to fight Putin, he can do whatever he wants, he’s the strongest leader of them all.

Edit: sorry for the rambling, I guess what I’m trying to say is that it’s a colossus on clay feet. It’s more Austria in WW1 than Germany in WW2.