2961

Tanks are great, but only if the air is contested. If Russia establishes air control first, and there’s no reason to think they won’t unless NATO fully steps in, then tanks are doomed.

2962

that’s really beautiful. It would be a true miracle if the russian people would overthrow their government.

2963

So true! And even their figures of speech. I told a Russian once that I slept like a rock. She looked quizzed and asked me what it meant. When I told her she said, oh, yeah, we have a phrase that means the same thing, but it’s literally, “I slept like someone murdered me.” Sooo dark.

2964

This morning when I saw all the videos of those massed helos just “leisurely” flying into that airport near Kiev I assumed there would be a followup and big planes would be offloading BTRs straight into the capital by now, but many reports seem to imply those guys seem to have just been left there in a very bad position.
Despite all the superiority, I wonder how many blunders can Putin afford before having real trouble at home. For now it’s just bunchs of very brave protesters, but when some mothers of dead soldiers join them… who knows

2965

Poland’s also getting a couple Patriot batteries, and they have F-35s on order.

2966

Honestly, im not that worried about Ukraine - but what China might do amidst the crisis.

2967

Poland is in NATO, right? Putin isn’t going there, and if he is, they’re not going to be without air cover.

2968

There’s going to be a lot of completely innocent dead people in Ukraine. You should worry about Ukraine, even as you’re worrying about China.

You should also worry that a democracy may end up with a puppet government controlled by a oligarchy not of their choosing.

2969

On top of that, does discipline hold up for the Russian troops if this thing isn’t over in a hurry?

2970

I guess the question isn’t “is Poland up to the fight?” because they ARE a NATO member, yes? If they were attacked then NATO has to join in, more or less. My big worry there is Poland and Ukraine constitute a proper border with/in Europe geographically. Putin can’t get that with any other two countries. I’m sure he really, really wants Poland but that would be an exponential escalation.

2971

Russia can most definitely size territory, but the big question is they, just invaded a nation full of people who hate them and who grew up on stories about their grandparents and great grandparents giving the Germans nightmares.

We in the US are very familiar with how difficult occupying a country that doesn’t want to be occupied can be, and Russia is much more heavy-handed, which will just breed even more resentment among those being occupied.

2973

Right, and thinking about it, so is Lithuania which would accomplish the same thing, poke the same bear, but not poke it nearly as hard as Poland.

2974

The whole thing is very strange. I guess I figured there’d already be tanks rolling through the capital within the first 24 hours. Maybe that’s unrealistic.

They mentioned a decapitation strike. Maybe they were hoping for a quick capitulation.

2975

That is impressive. Let’s hope the tear gas/water cannon/guns don’t come out.

2976

Yeah; they went there

2977

Well, there’s this German saying that goes way back to the Cold War times: It’s the Bundewehr’s purpose to stall the enemy at the border until military arrives.

Makes of that what you will. :)

2978

I don’t know what to predict here, but I see it going one of two ways:

  1. Under the Russian blitz, the Ukrainian army quickly (within days) collapses, and so does all the will to fight and Putin either takes over Ukraine or installs his puppet. There is no significant insurgency. This is what Putin needs and what he is counting on.
  2. The Ukrainian army gives the Russians a bloody nose, but Russians eventually over come resistance (because I don’t see the Ukrainians realistically coming out on top in any way). But there aren’t enough troops to secure a country of 40 million+ people the size of Texas. - 200k isn’t enough, it’s less than what the US invaded Iraq with the second time. So with troops spread too thin, and a hostile population in most areas, the Ukrainians make it a bloody occupation for the Russians with all sorts of unforeseen consequences.

It really comes down to how badly the Ukrainians want to fight. It’s one thing for a group like the Taliban (who don’t live easy lives to begin with) to fight a long bloody insurgency but people accustomed to a more modern Western lifestyle . . . I guess we’re about to find out.

2979

Sean Penn is on the case!

I can’t imagine what sort of footage he thinks he’s going to get. It sounds like he’s mostly supporting Ukraine’s government as a PR opportunity:

-Tom

2980

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2981