2982

It seems likely 5eyes had knowledge of enough of the Russian invasion plan that the only surprise was that the go order was actually given.

Yeah. I do wonder what the Russian answer will be to the thousands of advanced LAW weapons the Ukrainians have from various sources is. It seems to me that armoured columns heading into urban environments are going to be super vulnerable to that kind of thing.

Indeed - it sounds like the runway was inoperable (possible had been mined?) so they couldn’t use it as an airbridge - even if the UKR forces didn’t have hundreds of MANPADs around Kyiv that could be used against transport aircraft anyway. The sheer hubris of the entire ill-concieved plan, resulting in the loss of the entire elite airborne force, warms my twisted heart.

Ukraine is big. And Russian military superiority isn’t so absolute that they can just drive tanks around at full speed.

2983

Welp.

2984

Kind of a random tweet, but this person is a police officer in Slovakia. He runs a fan club of European Avalanche (NHL) fans. Has a big following, but he’s been tweeting this morning as he’s been moved to the Ukrainian border. Has some live streams right now. Nothing dramatic, but you see refugees trickling in.

2985

That’s the idea, to eventually collapse Putin’s system and re-enact the early 90s in Russia. Regime change is the only way to change the fundamentals. THis is Russia’s strategy to deal with us, and it’s been pretty effective the past few years.

2986

Every ukrainian I’ve met has struck me as determined. I don’t see them rolling over any time soon.

2987

Also, if there is full insurgency, they will be very well supplied insurgents, with a very friendly Western border into Poland. Russia will have an Afghanistan on Steroids if Ukranians are willing to fight it out.

2988

Respect. Probably more anti-war demonstrators than the US could bring together these days.

2989

I hope that is true, though it would also be horrible to be in that position.

2990

Well they also have the history of resisting the Nazis, and that is within living memory just about.

The longer this goes on the worse it becomes for Putin.

2991

As much as I would love to see Russia caught flat-footed, I seriously doubt this invasion is going to be anything other than a formality. They’ve been fighting Ukraine for nearly a decade. I suspect they know exactly what they’re up against and how to manage it.

I would love to be wrong, but as a military action, I expect this invasion is going to be over very quickly.

-Tom

2992

Just got a package – a game insert I’d ordered from Etsy – and the return address is Kyiv.

I hope the person who created this and sent it to me two weeks ago is doing OK.

2993

“If President Zelensky is captured by the Russians, would Joe Biden send in a rescue operation to save him?”

Guess who asked this question at the White House press conference just now! Hint: his name rhymes with “juicy” and the outlet for which he works rhymes with “cocks”.

-Tom

2994

The response I dream of would be:
“Who would you recommend we send? Steven Seagal? Oh, wait… he’s a Trump supporter who is already buddies with Putin. I bet he could easily sneak in to get the job done, and especially if we talk about it on the news with you!”

2995

Zelensky seems pretty awesome.

2996

My favorite part of the press conference earlier was when Biden started to respond to him but stopped himself and started over with a different more diplomatic response. Although I’d love to know what his first response was going to be.

2997

No one wants that risk, but if the alternative is to simply let the Russians take whatever they want, is that acceptable? Where, the question is, do you draw the line? I’m willing to agree that perhaps Ukraine isn’t it, but where, then? Ultimately, if you are going to oppose Russia you have to take the risk of nuclear war. It’s been that way since 1949.

2998
2999

Oh, I agree. It’s just that in terms of bad things happening, internal collapse of Putin’s regime makes it far more likely that he will lash out even more dangerously. Undermining and destabilizing Russia carries its own risks, too.

3000

I know it gets chalked up to aging, but I love seeing Biden’s filter at work. He’ll frequently start to say something folksy or begin an anecdote, only to trail off and then say something like “…well, never mind that–” before circling back to an earlier point. I think it’s an endearing quality.

-Tom

3001