The Russia is getting more evil thread

[Timex]

@dtolman

Some of the Russian troops are conscripts - cannon fodder - there to distract and pin down Ukrainian soldiers away from the professional army that is doing the heaviest fighting.

Yeah, but those Russians who took, and then lost, that airfield were not conscripts. They were the best Russia has to offer.

[abrandt]

@Timex

This is definitely the case, but honestly the initial attack on Iraq was so one sided that it didn’t really come down to the Iraqis wanting to fight or not… Our ability to conduct networked warfare was a

This was definitely the case the second time around, but Gulf War 1 seemed like it was going to be a lot closer on paper and then most of the Iraq army melted away. Speaking from memory, I’m not very well read on either war.

[Woolen_Horde]

There’s also the Wagner Group, which is Russian mercenaries. They’re essentially deflagged Spetznatz that Moscow uses openly, but can always claim “they’re contractors, not us” if any countries asked. Wagner Group has operated in Syria and Libya and a lot of other hot spots. They’re definitely battle-hardened.

Interestingly, it’s believed that hundreds of them were killed in a battle against US-backed forces in Syria, with US airstrikes called in. But since they were “contractors”, Moscow couldn’t really raise a fuss.

[dtolman]

And those soldiers had training and adequate supplies. The problem there was hubris on the part of whomever planned the mission.

[roguefrog]

Can we just lob some tomahawk missiles into a Russian tank column. Oops, fat fingers. Sorry (not sorry).

[Thrag]

Those missiles were simply on vacation.

[dtolman]

I could see a scenario where the US/NATO establishes a protected zone in the far west - a no fly zone essentially. Turkey did the same in Syria.

[Houngan]

Right, crack troops, but a plan that fell apart. They were only supposed to hold it until the reinforcements came, which failed. It keeps feeling like Russia is a lot less overwhelming in the air or Ukraine is a lot more effective at AA and aerial combat than anticipated, or both.

[sillhouette]

Paul McLeary

[Tim_N]

So CNN is saying the explosion over Kiev wasn’t a russian plane but a ukranian plane that was shot down by Russian anti-air in the suburbs…

How could that be possible unless Russia has already encroached on the city? Haven’t seen any other info suggesting they had already reached Kyiv, beyond the sabotage forces that the president mentioned.

[abrandt]

And if Russia can’t sustain their air operations to the degree everyone expected then that at least gives Ukrainians on the ground to cause some real hurt.

[Houngan]

Can a thirty second-old post not age well?

[abrandt]

The range on Russian SAMs are pretty crazy. It’s an area where they are very advanced.

[Timex]

@abrandt

This was definitely the case the second time around, but Gulf War 1 seemed like it was going to be a lot closer on paper and then most of the Iraq army melted away. Speaking from memory, I’m not very well read on either war.

My description was the first gulf war.

You are right that the PREDICTIONS were that we were more evenly matched. We were not.

1991 was the first time that the US really leveraged its new capability to link sensors and direct attacks without the shooter seeing the target.

It was the first time we used things like BVR engagements with air to air. Iraqi migs were destroyed without even knowing where they were being shot from.

We shot down tons of Iraqi aircraft…I think we lost one? I’m not even sure that it was lost to enemy fire.

[Istari6]

@Houngan

Right, crack troops, but a plan that fell apart. They were only supposed to hold it until the reinforcements came, which failed. It keeps feeling like Russia is a lot less overwhelming in the air or Ukraine is a lot more effective at AA and aerial combat than anticipated, or both.

I wonder how much NATO is sharing intelligence with the Ukrainian government. That would help quite a bit in fending off surprise raids like the airborne assault if they were forewarned by US or other SIGINT.

[dtolman]

There are conflicting reports on the aircraft (or missiles) shot down over Kyiv today. Fog of war - it may take a while for the real truth to become known

[Dejin]

@dtolman

I could see a scenario where the US/NATO establishes a protected zone in the far west - a no fly zone essentially. Turkey did the same in Syria.

Here’s a video with some retired Navy Fighter pilots (actually one of them was an F14 RIO not a pilot). I haven’t finished it all yet, but they say this talk of No Fly zones is definitely not realistic. Most of the country can be covered by Russian Anti-Aircraft which is very sophisticated and very good (as @abrandt says).

Russia Invades Ukraine! (Now what?)

[Houngan]

I would imagine a ton. As long as you’re not leaving gear with serial numbers on the battlefield I would assume it’s no problem. One guy with a phone back to Germany or wherever whispering in their command and control’s ear has to be more or less invisible.

[charmtrap]

Wow, that’s a lot if true.

The Kyiv Independent

[Mark_Weston]

It turns out that about 25% of almost all Russian front-line units are conscripts; even elite and special forces. And it turns out that the conscription period is now down to 12 months, which implies that that 25% is mostly half-trained dead weight.