The Russia is getting more evil thread

[Timex]

Alejandro Alvarez

[vyshka]

I’m surprised they’ve got it down to 25%

[Istari6]

@Houngan

I would imagine a ton. As long as you’re not leaving gear with serial numbers on the battlefield I would assume it’s no problem. One guy with a phone back to Germany or wherever whispering in their command and control’s ear has to be more or less in invisible.

Yup. If the full weight of modern US and UK intelligence capabilities are being shared with the Ukrainian armed forces, they’re going to be able to punch quite a bit above their weight. Just ELINT aircraft flying along the borders and the full range of satellite surveillance should help offset loss of air superiority. In past wars, if you lose air superiority you’re blind. But with a superpower patron feeding you networked space data, it may be less of a disadvantage.

[vyshka]

It’s be nice if they started fucking with their comms too. I know my tlq17 got phased out and replaced with airborne assets

[abrandt]

I sure hope it’s true. Seems like one of the most direct things we can do and really not something Russia can push back against

[Thrag]

I would assume we’ve still got global hawks in Ukrainian airspace, not to mention satellite assets, and we’re sharing everything we can with Ukraine.

Also I would hope that the Ukrainian military planned not so much for a front line defense but for independent units waiting and attacking supply lines after the initial blitz. Russia has to be hoping for a quick and total capitulation. They likely can’t sustain the type of extended folly we experienced in Iraq after our “mission successful”.

[abrandt]

I also hope that asymmetric warfare was planned and trained for.

[Istari6]

@Thrag

I would assume we’ve still got global hawks in Ukrainian airspace, not to mention satellite assets, and we’re sharing everything we can with Ukraine.

Also I would hope that the Ukrainian military planned not so much for a front line defense but for independent units waiting and attacking supply lines after the initial blitz. Russia has to be hoping for a quick and total capitulation. They likely can’t sustain the type of extended folly we experienced in Iraq after our “mission successful”.

I’d be surprised if any US aircraft are inside Ukrainian airspace, even unmanned Global Hawks. But to the larger point you’re making, I agree it’s hard to figure out Putin’s plan for a quick win if the Ukrainians are willing to resist inside Kyiv.

Perhaps he was hoping that airborne assault would work and they could storm the capital quickly before the defenders could react. But that’s a big gamble to base the entire warplan around. So now what? Can the Russians really take Kyiv “on the run” with conventional ground forces without triggering a long, grinding urban battle like we faced in Fallujah?

Obviously the parallel isn’t exact, since the defenders of Fallujah had much more time to prepare. But the apparent will to resist in Ukraine is strong, and it’s probably hard to just rush a large capital city if the defender is highly motivated.

[Dejin]

Tweeter is Washington Post reporter covering US military.

Dan Lamothe

[vyshka]

They are running their tracks on the NATO side of the border. You can see them on the flight tracking sites. I have no idea why that info is allowed to go on there.

[abrandt]

I get the optics of not fleeing the capital but I sure hope the Ukrainian government doesn’t put all of their eggs in that basket. At least get the #2 who would take over for Zelensky somewhere safer? Continuity of government seems important for this to not all unravel in a hurry.

[Dejin]

@abrandt

At least get the #2 who would take over for Zelensky somewhere safer? Continuity of government seems important for this to not all unravel in a hurry.

Absolutely!!!

[Strollen]

@Istari6

I wonder how much NATO is sharing intelligence with the Ukrainian government. That would help quite a bit in fending off surprise raids like the airborne assault if they were forewarned by US or other SIGINT.

I know we sent AWACS planes to both Romania and Poland weeks ago. From Moldovo, AWACs can cover almost to Donestk, and Kiev can be covered from Poland, Kharkov is just out the stated range of 400Km. So I’m sure we are sharing AWACS information, with Ukraine. Satellite I have no idea. We seem to be really good at intercepting and crack Russian communication, how much and how quickly we are sharing that is another good question.

[Jaws_au]

@vyshka

They are running their tracks on the NATO side of the border. You can see them on the flight tracking sites. I have no idea why that info is allowed to go on there.

The Global Hawk and Stratotankers are flying in controlled airspace - perhaps the decision was made to have them squawking ADS-B to avoid any issues with commercial flights. Might also be a bit of a show-of-force to the Russians to see a Global Hawk lurking around the Black Sea.

EDIT: Looks like an Extender is coming on station too.

[Thrag]

At least yesterday as the invasion was unfolding you could see global hawks in the airspace with their transponders on showing up on FlightRadar24. Today not so much. Still, why not keep them flying? If Russia shoots one down that’s a major escalation on their part and not such of a loss for us.

[vyshka]

Yeah, I’m seeing less on the site tonight, so guessing things aren’t squawking.

[Timex]

Turns out, javelins fuck up Russian tanks.

We sent them 300 javelins a month ago.

[abrandt]

And may many more continue to find their way over the Polish border in the days ahead.

[Dejin]

Years of oppression under Putin’s government have made the risks of taking part in any anti-Kremlin activities very high for public and private citizens alike. Still, thousands of Russians across the country are defying their government’s warning and have organized and attended large protests in cities that include Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, and Novosibirsk.

The exact number of arrests made wasn’t immediately clear, but OVD-Info, a civil rights group that monitors protests in Russia, estimated Thursday afternoon that more than 1,700 had so far been detained in connection with the demonstrations. That number was expected to increase.

Thousands Of Russians, Including Celebrities, Are Risking Being Arrested To...

[abrandt]

FORTE12 out in the western Black Sea is.

And I’d think that tanker in eastern Poland isn’t refueling nothing.