3164

I’ve never got round to looking up the text myself, but the word always used about the Budapest agreement was that it was a “guarantee”. We (the US and the UK) didn’t just promise not to violate Ukrainian sovereignty - we collectively guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty.

Edit: well there you go, the price of laziness is always being wrong.

3165

From Wikipedia:

According to the memorandum,[16] Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they would:

  1. Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.[17]
  2. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
  3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to influence their politics.
  4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they “should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used”.
  5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
  6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments
3166

BTW, Poland is openly allowing Ukraine aircraft in to land/probably resupply in Polish airfields. Poland is aggressively supporting Ukraine and will be a supply chain conduit. Cutting off Polish airspace from all Russian planes. Real hotspot.

3167

Ah, well here’s the loophole. Putin’s just asking questions, guys!

3169

Seems like the only actual repercussion is that Ukraine can now develop nuclear weapons, which isn’t going to do them much good.

3170

Russia just openly threatened sweden/finland if they join nato.

3171

Because clearly countries that aren’t joining NATO have nothing to worry about.

3172

I think you make a lot of good points, and I think a lot of us do know this, but I don’t see that experience applied to anything Putin has done.

As others have pointed out, if we had responded more strongly after the first Ukraine invasion, we might not be here today, and even though Putin has all but declared war on the West, and even threatened to start the nuclear apocalypse if we intervene, there are still European leaders who are on the fence, which only increases the credible threat to the Baltics.

The time when one might claim that the Russians would respond to diplomacy is long since past. They’ve gotten more than their share of concessions and goodwill, and they still haven’t moved an inch.

A person would have to be deaf and blind not to see that, which makes me think that these leaders are in denial. It’s early days, they might come around. I hope they do soon.

3173

China stopped buying Russian oil.

Well someone has to uphold Western humanist principles!

I’m joking, they’re just not sure it’s safe to buy now.

3174

Technically, the NPT doesn’t say nuclear weapons holders can’t attack treaty members who don’t have nuclear weapons.
It just says that the folks with nukes won’t use nukes on the folks who don’t have them.

3175

It’s fine to understand European fears. But I think germany is pretty emblematic of the hypocrisy I find galling. Block arms delivery to Ukraine but light up Brandenburg gate in Ukraine colors to show support!

Gee thanks for light show. Why would anyone take German will seriously to resist invasions?

3176

Thoughts and prayers y’all

3177

All European countries were traumatized by WW2, but Germany possibly most so. They’re like the big bully who severely injured someone in their youth and swore off violence to the point where they won’t use it even in an obviously good cause because they’re afraid of where that could lead.

3178

Strange to talk about how Germany is traumatized by WW2 while the aggressor is the country that suffered the most.

At the moment even pro-Putin analysts are angry with the Russian army. Billions were spent on it and at the moment it performs abysmally. It will still probably win but it’s more embarrassing than the Winter War. If anything, this will soothe the fears of Eastern European countries.

3179

Every NATO country saying they’ll defend NATO members from Russian attacks?

3180

Taiwan, the major source of semi-conductors in the world, has joined the international sanctions regime against Russia. That’s gong to hurt new weapon development and deployment. But that may not matter if China comes calling.

3181

And still the question remains. After they win the war, then what? Are they willing to stick around and prop up the puppet government?

3182

If this was a game of Civilization, we’d be facing this guy.

putizuma

3183

Certainly all of the former Warsaw members who are part of NATO understand that, and assuming no Trump in office, I trust the US, UK, and France to be good for defense. Germany might be the only ostrich in that situation and even then, what big loss would their dozen poorly maintained tanks and aircraft be?

3184

Well, the war did leave Germany in ruins and humiliated by the end. All countries learnt things from the war. For example, in Denmark and Norway, one of the lessons was “Never Again an April 9” which led to an abandonment of neutrality ideas and aggressive NATO participation. In Sweden, the lesson was the opposite. Germany’s lessons led to the almost extreme pacifism that we’ve seen over the past 30 years.

It’s early days yet, but let’s hope this is the case. I just wish I could see a possibility where this gets stopped before more thousands of innocents get injured or killed.