newbrof
3185
I live here in Germany, and I would take the hit to suffer higher energy costs, or freezing in the next winter, if we could have hard sanctions agains Putin (SWIFT)… I think we need the hardest possible sanctions to maybe put the russian war machine to a halt…
On that part it might be that Putin’s clique is a hostage of their own propaganda. Everything suggests they really believed that after the first few hours the Ukrainian government would collapse and they will have their puppet regime with a few new independent republics. Today their Ministry of Foreign Affairs, press secretary and Putin himself all say different things, from declaring that they will destroy Ukraine to basically asking for white peace. Ministry of defense reports no losses at all, Putin asks Ukrainian army to topple their government of drug addicts and neonazis. It’s macabre.
So I’d say now there’s no plan, none at all. It is not clear if Russia comes out of this war in a better position than Ukraine even before we account for sanctions.
We also need to pull our head out of our posteriors and finally take defense, the Russia threat and the concerns of our neighbours and allies seriously. Any talk of trauma is just a cheap excuse, we’ve taken the very comfortable solution of hiding behind a naive pacifism that lets us stay completely passive and even feel morally superior at the same time.
Isn’t that just “say anything” whilst we get on with surround Kyiv and getting rid of the govt? And the Russian Army not doing well? I think I just read something from the Brit Govt saying Russian Army is still not achieving objectives but are you getting information from somewhere else or rather, on what basis do you assert this? Promise am not challenging you, just interested to learn more.
I’m reading what people journalists from Russia and Ukraine write. Pro-Russian journalists aren’t happy about it too. A lot of very chaotic fights. Plenty of videos of Russians taken prisoners. Russian specops people capture some places and then get destroyed.
As far as I’ve been able to tell they’re only using a fraction of the troops they have, so I don’t see Ukraine holding out much longer. I believe that’s also why Zelenskiy is asking for negotiations.
If the Russians are willing to talk, they could be aiming for a pledge of Ukrainian disarmament and neutrality, in an attempt to save what’s left of their reputation, and appear reasonable on the world stage - while avoiding a painful occupation and a repeat of Afghanistan.
That’s all speculation though, obviously.
Do you really think the Russians care about losses though? To me they seem virtually indifferent to how their troops fare, as long as they get what they want in the end.
He doesn’t.
Yes, I think so, because for me Russians are not just those dudes from WW2 videogames.
Good to know. Heartening indeed.
wahoo
3195
Russian aims have been in conflict with political aim different from military strategy. Thus Russian military taking longer to achieve objections b/c they are trying to minimize damage. Goal was swift strike.
Everything I’ve read points to Ukraine resistance being much stronger than anticipated but Russia will grind them out. Russia hasn’t launched main forces and just landed amphibious troops. They are staying out of cities and goal is to end Ukraine govt without city warfare.
If Russia gets sucked into urban warfare will be bad for everyone.
No one knows end game except Putin. Russian govt not on same page with different briefs from different ministers.
The key thing to keep in mind when the Kremlin claims that they are willing to negotiate is this:
Putin lies all the time.
There is literally no reason to trust anything these people say on any subject.
This is from 5 hours ago, so maybe something has changed, but Reuters has this report:
“The Kremlin on Friday noted Ukrainian President volodymyr Zelenskiy’s willingness to discuss a possible neutrality pledge by Ukraine, but said it could not say anything about possible talks between the two countries’ leaders.”
I don’t mean the people, I mean the regime.
It’s an interesting case of slight misinformation. Let me translate the original quote, not what Kremlin has imagined and answered to:
“Today we heard from Moscow that they are ready to talk about Ukraine’s neutral status. <…> I asked 27 European leaders today whether Ukraine will be in NATO. All of them are afraid, they do not answer. We are not afraid, we are not afraid of anything, we are not afraid to defend our power, we are not afraid of Russia, we are not afraid to talk to Russia about everything: about security guarantees for our country, about the neutral status”.
I think this is very different from asking for negotiations.
If you believe the British sources this campaign is already the worst military operation of Putin’s Russia. He came to power with the promise of stability and every Russian military operation was short and bloodless. Up until now Putin was very hesitant to lose people. That’s why Donetsk and Lugansk remained unrecognized for so long, and only volunteers unaffiliated with the Russian government went there. I think Putin was only doing this all thinking it will be a free victory just like the others where Russian people got something to be proud of with no direct losses.
JonRowe
3199
The regime only cares if losses turn public support.
This was sold to the public via propaganda that Ukraine was a threat to Russia and Russians living in Ukraine, and that they had to stop the neo-nazi (jewish president) corrupt (democratically elected) leadership.
Like the US, 50% of the population drinks the Kool-aid of populist leader, and accept this.
Part of that populism is showing strength and power… a long campaign with little gains and lots of losses really hurt that. I am sure the Russian propaganda machine is spooled up with so many “mission accomplished” style statements at this point.
If this turns into a long term occupation style military campaign with lots of casualties…
People won’t see that as strength. That is bad. That is when the regime begins to care.
Along with sanctions hurting citizens in the pocketbook… this could be real bad for Putin.
wahoo
3200
Germany now publicly saying they open to blocking Russia from SWIFT. That would be a BFD.
JonRowe
3201
It is pretty obvious Putin rolled the dice on this, thinking it would be another Crimea. Little resistance, easy capture and quick regime change.
Not happening like that.
If you thought the German military was bad, the head of our intelligence services had to evacuated from Ukraine by special forces because he didn’t get the memo and didn’t get out in time.
JonRowe
3203
To be fair they are 0-2 in world wars.
A stalemate almost makes this weirder or scarier in the short term. What would Russia do, and how would they save face? A quick victory would’ve been awful long-term for Ukraine but the possibility space would’ve been simpler.
