I do think we should be very wary of the fog of war. I very much want to believe that the Russian military is bungling things, for sure, but it’s so easy for misinformation or even just isolated anecdotes to spread and seem much larger than they are.
There’s a reason why the US Army’s tooth-to-tail ratio is what it is. Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.
Yeah, Russians are actively working to make everybody no longer afraid of Russian threat beyond nukes. Poland and Baltics might not need help of NATO to deal with all that.
Got me there; there are not any, really. Doesn’t mean we should telegraph our helplessness though. The longer term problem is not just about Russia, it’s about the world order in general. Right now, we face the reality we have been dodging since 1945, which is that nuclear weapons allow aggressive states to do anything they want to any other state that either is not a nuclear power or isn’t part of a strong nuclear-armed bloc. No one seems to actually be thinking about how to deal with this situation, because everyone is paralyzed by fear. That’s understandable, but what is not nearly as acceptable to me is the refusal to simply recognize this and stop pretending that collective security at any level short of NATO-like agreements and interoperability is utterly useless.
OK, I guess I just have to disagree. I think everyone knew that NATO was not going to spring to the defense of Ukraine, so I don’t think anything was lost there.
I just don’t think there’s as good solution here. I think the risk of escalation of a conventional shooting war between two nuclear-armed powers is just too high. We do the best we can with sanctions and covertly arming the opposition.
Houngan
3313
Looking at geography first, I think Ukraine is going to be a Russian puppet state, no questions asked. It forms too strong of a border with Belarus stretching from sea to sea, Lithuania notwithstanding. Best case is probably as peaceful a transition to that situation as possible. I don’t see Russia stopping with Ukraine still able to become a NATO state in the future. Hope I’m wrong, of course.
I don’t know where Russian forces are at today, I haven’t read very much about their modernizations, but they’ve had systemic problems since the Soviet era, and those modernizations were badly needed for at least three decades before they actually started.
A good example is the culture of “dedovshschina” which allows any Russian service member to beat up and abuse any service member of a lower rank. I can almost hear my marine buddies yelling “That’s every military!” but the Russians are on a level of their own.
I read about the wars in Chechnya, where entire units would be taken off the frontline because their soldiers had too many broken bones and injuries that had been inflicted amongst themselves.
There were rumors that it went all the way to the top of the officer corps, generals beating up colonels and majors, although they’d do a better job of covering it up than the enlisted men. But really, that has to influence their overall effectiveness.
I don’t think you turn that around overnight. I think it’s safe to assume that they still have serious problems.
But I also think you underestimate them at your own peril. The fact that they keep fighting, in spite of conscription, a bullshit regime and dedovshchina says something. Never underestimate a Russians ability to suffer.
Djscman
3315
Of those three examples, at least with this compared to Iraq, I don’t feel like preemptively cleaning blood off my hands because I voted for Nader and Bush won instead. Here I don’t feel responsible for awful things happening elsewhere. Of course the old Cold War nightmares of instant nuclear annihilation are coming back.
Russia has too much strength to bear, I fear. They will likely eventually bludgeon their way to “victory.”
But they will have massive issues keeping the peace. It’s one thing when all their military units are massed together, but eventually they’ll have to scatter throughout the country, just like we did in Iraq. And that’s when the nonstop attrition of guerilla attacks on isolated Russian units begin.
vyshka
3317
Verifying that AFP did report that:
Timex
3318
This is definitely a reality. I’ve had many people in the military over the years, including dudes who are very much the fighters, like fighter pilots, or JTACs on the front lines in Afghanistan, say that the strength of the US military lies in its logistics system, which is easily one of the most impressive systems in the world.
I’m just surprised to see that a country like Russia is so far below our level, if these stories are accurate. I’ve never heard of US troops not having food, or fuel, ever. I can’t even imagine it. On the contrary, the stories I’ve heard of what we were able to deliver to super remote regions in Afghanistan was way beyond what I would have expected.
But then again, I didn’t serve myself, and while I work with guys in the military all the time, it’s still just second hand info.
Did any of you guys who served in Iraq or Afghanistan ever hear about that kind of stuff happening to US forces?
I think US service members might joke about this, but it’s actually a crime in the US military, and I think it’s largely nonexistent. There was quite deliberately no violence visited on trainees when I went through basic, and I can’t think of a single case of superior-on-subordinate violence in my 5 years in the Infantry. And that was decades ago. Maybe the Marines have resurrected this sort of thing, but what a disaster if they have. It’s completely destructive to unit cohesion and morale.
If they’re having logistics issues invading Ukraine from Russia…? What the hell Russian dudes. That’s like invading Indiana from Ohio.
As long as you’re not in the marines.
“If you want logistics, join the army!”
Yeah, I agree. Time to get the NATO Cold War gang back together. stares at Germany
Ukraine is, I think, quite famous as one of the great logistics issues black holes of WW2. Both for the Nazi invaders and for their Soviet ‘rescuers’.
vyshka
3324
Don’t know if this is real, but lol:
It’s definitely not as bad as it was, and it’s not like what the Russians do, but the marines will definitely kick the shit out of each other. There was the yearly pillowfight that was recently banned, because when you turn those guys loose on each other, it just goes out of control and people get hurt.
