orald
3407
Neither are Ukrainian grandfathers. Mine was a tough SOB. Anyone that has been to a Ukrainian wedding, or wake, or party knows that Ukies love to fight.
Brave, foolhardy and full of piss and vinegar.
My heart is heavy for them.
Dejin
3408
UK Ministry of Defense Update:
India abstains in the Security Council voting.
Fairly large transport aircraft
Janster
3411
I hope that intelligence thing is correct…brave souls…
Djscman
3412
Did Russia set or abide by any rules of engagement when they invaded Crimea? Would blowing up a captured power station that provides power to a hospital be as much of a war crime as blowing up a hospital?
One of the saddest casualties of COVID, alas…
abrandt
3414
The UK MOD update? I think the releases the UK and US intelligence communities are making are probably the most trustworthy sources we’ll have for awhile as they would have the best mix of information but distance from the fight.
I understand that there is a risk of things escalating, but the idea that any direct confrontation between the US or NATO and Russia guarantees a nuclear exchange is I think a gross exaggeration. We planned for a massive conventional war in Europe during the Cold War, and most analysts believed that there was a good chance it would stay conventional, albeit with increasing risks of escalation depending on how long it went on. It’s possible that Putin is so rash that the calculus is different now, I suppose, but it seems highly likely there is an area between “do nothing” and “immolate the world” where fighting would happen.
Then again, I am also not eager to test that hypothesis unless absolutely necessary, either.
Dejin
3416
I hope this isn’t a repost — I didn’t see it upthread. President Zelenskyy’s evening speech. Includes explicit thank you to President Biden.
If you haven’t seen GLOW you might want to check it out.
newbrof
3418
I think it is safe to say that the russian public image is already fucked, they are despised in most parts of the world (Putin and his gang of criminals), Duma etc…
RichVR
3419
I watched the original. Never saw the new version.
Tim_N
3420
I was wondering why US/EU can’t convince some random country that isn’t in Russia’s direct orbit to offer Ukraine military support and troops, and then ferry them over using nato resources and arm them with nato weapons, and of course give the country significant rewards and protection from blowback. Then it isn’t directly NATO v Russia.
Looking like Poland might be volunteering for that. They’re a NATO member, though, so that’s challenging.
MikeJ
3422
Someone earlier linked the ACOUP take on this, but I found this paragraph a bit more interesting:
Moreover, as Caitlin Talmadge describes in the Taiwan/China context here, the very nature of the way modern militaries fight means that efforts by a NATO military to shield its own ground troops or fighters from enemy fire – essential for their survival – would involve strikes in Russia which might be effectively indistinguishable to Russian eyes from efforts to blind Russian eyes in preparation for a NATO nuclear first-strike. Some of those strikes would be using dual-purpose weapon-systems and the entire point of NATO doctrine in these sorts of instances is to paralyze and confuse enemy command and control, which of course makes a mistake more likely. The same would of course be true in the other direction, so both the tired, confused Russian commanders and the tired, confused NATO commanders would be squinting at their intelligence reports always wondering if the next missile might be the beginning of a nuclear war. The potential for catastrophic miscalculation leading to a nuclear exchange is far, far too high (and that is before one accounts for what one side in that fight might do if it became clear they were losing the conventional war but might salvage the issue by upgrading it to a ‘limited’ nuclear war).
jsnell
3423
I doubt that you’ll find many countries where such a naked mercenary use of the army would be popular. Sending your boys to die in a foreign war just because the US paid for it doesn’t have great optics.
The sort of Tom Clancy view that I was raised on was that the war would start conventionally, NATO would lose the conventional war and be forced to resort to tactical nukes, and then things would escalate from there. After the USSR fell though, some of their battle plans came out:
And it looks like the actual USSR plan was for a nuclear blitzkrieg, where they would kick off the war with hundreds of tactical and strategic nukes, and then roll their tanks through the irradiated rubble of Europe.
Right?! I swear to god, the wholesomeness of that show helped me get through the Trump presidency.
Maybe I’ve been reading the wrong things, but I always saw the talk of conventional war as a way for the Pentagon to get more money for toys.
The official simulations I’ve heard of have resulted in first, a defensive tactical nuclear strike on own soil, and then spiraled into nuclear war within the first two weeks of a conflict.
To me, the idea that either side would somehow be open to suffering a conventional military defeat without launching a nuke at some point is complete and utter poppycock. Not in this world.
