I not saying we should necessarily establish a no-fly zone. I’m saying that we should have a discussion, and calling anyone who suggests it crazy is wrong. Biden should take the necessary steps. (moving planes, mobilizing reserves squadrons) to enable NATO to establish as soon as practical.
If at the end of the day if our leaders decide that the increased risk of WWIII outweighs the benefits to the Ukrainian people, and the deterrence effect it has on other countries thinking that having nuclear weapons gives the free pass to attack, well so be it.
The point of discussion is not only to figure out the best way to help the Ukrainians but to put more time pressure on the Russians to attack or negotiate. If their frontal assault fails to take Kyiv next week. The Russian doctrine will be to roll up many hundreds of their 152 mm howitzers and start shelling turning Kyiv, into Allepo,Idlib, Palmyra, Al-Raqqa.
The Syrian Civil War will be 11 years old next month. I remember when it was the shining new thing, with CNN correspondents, John Kerry making all types of threats and promises, and unprecedented sanctions were applied, protest against Assad in the streets, and pretty colored lights in support of the brave protesters. Hey, it even had its own thread, right here on P&R. the last post was 10 years ago.
I called out Kerry for his happy talk, and predicted Assad would remain in power.
I’m one of the million folks who watch the PBS Newshour, and the Newshour unlike the rest of media, didn’t completely forget about the Syrian Civil War, once every few months they’d do a story showing the destruction, but even they pretty much stopped after Covid and so did my contribution to the Syrian White Helmets. In two years probably less this war will be forgotten in the same way that Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were forgotten until a few months
The reality is sanctions don’t work, the two exceptions were South Africa, and Libya arguably. It took literally decades for them to succeed. Sanctions, are the west’s way of saying, thank you for your service, or putting black lives matter in our Twitter profile. Most of this talk about how devastating this will be to Russia, is wishful thinking. Russia is one of the most self-reliant nations, they are net food exporter and net energy exporter. Trade is only $28 billion out of 1,709 billion economy. They have a rich supply of natural resources, and heavy industry. Sure they’ll have a hard time making smart weapons without chips, but a 152 MM shell only needs about 50KG of steel and explosives.
I’m setting a calendar alarm to bump this thread in 2 years, it won’t be hard to follow then…
