This is funny. Swiss neutrality amounting to nothing:
orald
3974
Lord I hope that this isn’t a trap. From what I’ve read Zelenskyy has been an inspiration to his people and the international community. What protections could ensure he is not detained?
High stakes
I have seen some (non-govt, non-intel) sentiment that failure here is, in fact, an existential threat to Putin personally (as in “he wins or he swings” and they mean it literally) which could be a problem.
Hopefully soon. But I’ve thought that about Putin and Russia for a long time.
I think that, in the absence of an actual hot war with NATO which creates an existential threat to the country (not simply to Putin), the Russian defense establishment isn’t going to commit global murder/suicide with nuclear weapons. But of course I don’t know that, and I don’t know that anyone can.
Someone needs to offer Putin’s daughters an out. Maybe in Mar Lago. Or New York if they prefer somewhere civilized.
Yeah, it’s hard to see how he could bet any more on this. It’s the whole farm, the tractor and the wife.
antlers
3980
He’s trying to deter further Western aid to Ukraine, in part by saying “look how crazy I am.”. He knows that if he starts inflicting mass civilian casualties there will be huge popular pressure in the West to intervene with a no-fly zone or something, and he is trying to get ahead of that.
Is Zelenskyy himself going to be part of the delegation? I didn’t see that in the announcement, and I do think that is unlikely.
I don’t think Zelensky is leaving Kyiv. Putin wouldn’t be attending, either.
I think it’s just posturing, but maybe Putin wants an out (recognize the breakaway regions and Crimea, refuse NATO…)
On the short term there would be a lot of pressure to accept such a deal. Both parties can spin it as a win.
It leads us back to the starting point, only with Russia isolated.
Russians don’t seem to understand that with this type of urban warfare you have to go block to block and house to house. Which is odd, because surely they studied the US invasion of Iraq.
Airdropping unsupported troops into a city, or striking deep into the city without everything behind just leaves your troops isolated.
That was my initial thought too, it would be the most rational out, but I fear we’ve moved past the point where Putin could realistically stop there. It would be too much of a humiliation, Russia would be reduced to a geopolitical midget (Sorry for the word use).
I think it’s more likely that he will double down and start leveling cities if progress isn’t made.
Alstein
3985
I’m sure the Russians do understand it from the history books, but the Russian leadership might not, and they’re not used to being the aggressor in urban warfare.
Russian conscripts who are not defending their country aren’t going to be very effective. There’s a reason the US military does not want draftees.
If Russia levels cities, they pretty much guarantee their future as a Chinese pariah client state, and even the Chinese might dump them
Seems to be more real this time. This would allow Turkey to block the movement of Russian warships unless they are home ported in the Black Sea and returning there.
May not mean much as a practical matter, but is an indication of further isolation for Putin.
abrandt
3987
It seems whoever is in charge of training in the Russian military is a big fan of how the troops in The Tomorrow War were prepared for their war.
Yes but Turkey is a NATO country and if there’s a hostile reaction to this then that spells trouble.
I was wondering about this. Belarus regime’s grasp already looked tenuous and unsustainable without Russian help. If mood has moved significantly against it now, things could get weird.
As I said earlier, wrt Putin and the war - he has to win. And in the interest of limiting the disaster, Ukraine and the West may have to pretend to give him that win.
I doubt Turkey has any intention of using force to impede the passage of Russian warships. That’s why I said the impact would probably be symbolic rather than practical.
