4074

I think if Russia goes medieval then you’re going to see the peaceful resistance seen (people standing in front of tanks) replaced with a lot more guerilla attacks on Russian supply lines and their rear areas. And it’s going to get nasty. Like no prisoners taken.

4075

Kyiv has been encircled.

The siege of Zelenskygrad begins.

4076

Well this is pretty humiliating:

4077

Danes in on the anti-tank missile bandwagon.

There will soon be more anti-tank missiles than russian armored vehicles in theater.

4078

I wonder whether Putin is one of those people like the ones I ran into back in the 1980s, mid-level defense or intelligence functionaries who were deeply immersed in the minutia of the Cold War, followed all of the zigs and zags changing balances of forces, and knew every weapon system’s capabilities by heart. These folks often occupied that middle ground where they could obsess on this stuff in their day to day jobs but where they had zero influence on what happened and zero role to play if anything did happen. Consequently, they were the most vocal and insistent about the sorts of policies or actions that would likely result in war–they really, deep down and without much actual reflection, wanted to see “what would happen” if the balloon went up.

Putin acts like that sometimes, in that he seems to me sort of like someone who came of age watching the USSR go from a colossus that never got to use its power, to a shell off its former self that no one was respecting. To him, maybe, this is his one chance to ride the lightning, unleash the power he reveled in for so long but which to him was unfairly snatched away. Or something. Truth is, I have zero idea what the hell goes on in that man’s head.

4079

As for Russian airspace control…

This is an Ukrainian drone (Turkish origin) hitting a Russian SAM

4080

We don’t have a lot of research on minds of people who were absolute rulers for more than 10 years. He might be completely insane. He might be absolutely rational but misinformed in some places. He might be a case of madman theory gone wrong.

4081

Pull your socks up, McMurdo station!

4082

I’m not 100% this is yet true. Haven’t seen any official source except the mayor saying the city is “surrounded”. Which might imply encirclement or it might be a figure of speech. Certainly there have been no reported clashes near Kyiv today except from the North.

Might be, but I would wait before assuming it’s happened so fast after such slow developments the last 4 days.

4083

Some of those twitter hot takes from yesterday about how economic sanctions were too full of loopholes to do any good don’t seem to have aged well.

4084

Yeah, probably more that fighting is too widespread for large civilian evacuation than the deployment phase of a Total War siege battle. Still not good.

4085

According to Ukrainians I’ve been following on Twitter, Klitschko has a tendency to say a lot of outlandish stuff. They may not literally be “encircled”, seems to be the upshot.

4086

Based on the wiki, he was a cloak and dagger man, running ops and agents.

I don’t think he’s one of those, although he certainly was a true believer in the party. And is, apparently.

4087

[Update: unverified by other news sources and posters down thread say that unfortunately Vindman is proving to be an unreliable source of information.]

4088

I have reached the conclusion that Ukraine is populated entirely by honey badgers.

4089

Yeah, I wouldn’t want to be trying a mass civilian evacuation through areas that maybe have Russian troops or have had them sporadically.

I also can’t help but think with all of the struggles the Russians have had just in reaching Ukraine that their encirclement has to be incredibly vulnerable to getting cut off, especially with the Dnieper cutting through the middle.

4090

Some footage from yesterday. Looks like vehicles were ambushed and what we’re seeing is attacking the troops that fled them.

Note the how the Ukrainian forces appear to have RPGs to spare.

(I have this image in my mind of the guy firing yelling "call it a noob tube one more time motherfucker).

4091

From Washington Post reporter Pentagon Briefing this morning:

I’ve seen a lot of other people on CNN Fact Checker Daniel Dale’s list of “good reporters focusing on Ukraine” concerned that things are going to get worse as Russia gets increasingly frustrated with their lack of progress. So you are not alone in your concerns.

Here’s some more from the Pentagon Briefing:

This one is not good, and will likely increase the chances of blue-on-blue fighting:

And here’s some better news:

4092

Official Russian rhetoric getting further out of control:

4093

My brain can’t get past the dichotomy of both knowing that this type of tactic likely completely shuts the door to Putin ever achieving whatever his goals in Ukraine were but also absolutely horrified by what it means for all of the innocent civilians in the city and any other city where they do this.