4214

Take this for what you will, but it sounds like Belarus is incoming (the times were about an hour ago)

4215

Yeah. As horrible as this situation is, it is a lesson. While the USSR might have been a formidable foe, Russia is less so.

4216

Surely the lesson is that this isn’t about technology? The Russians have all sorts cool military tech, and they are definitely better than the West at some things (e.g. air defence). But the tech is secondary to the ability to build, train and motivate a human organisation that can use the tech effectively.

4217

Well there doesn’t have to be one lesson… If we wanted that one, we could just look at the US in say, Afghanistan among other places.

But some of this drone and satellite footage would lead to a very bad day indeed if you were facing a modern military.

4218

I hesitate to link this here, but there is a telegram channel that posts pics/videos and english updates from someone who is pro-war. It posts alot, and unlike the twitter accounts I have seen shows a fair few videos that were clearly taken by russian soldiers.

Obviously click at your own discretion, and I am not responsible for any material that is posted. Its potential use is to balance the coverage of russian losses and Ukrainian victories you see alot on twitter.

4219

Note they are sending airplanes for the Ukranians to fly. This is an important distinction

EDIT: ERROR. Linked wrong article. fixed now.

A person familiar with the talks later said that discussions are still ongoing. The person said any planes would be supplied directly by EU member states and not funded through an arrangement announced earlier for the EU to finance weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s jet fighters are Soviet-built MiG and Sukhoi models.

4220

Gosh, this all seems so familiar…

(I’m really hoping this situation de-escalates… somehow…)

4221

I dunno. Sending fighter jets seems like a huge escalation to me. Until it’s confirmed by a reputable news agency then I’m skeptical.

4222

How is different than sending any other kind of lethal aid?

4223

The distinction is offensive vs defensive.

4225

Evidently, they have something of an Eagle squadron, former pilots returning to duty, and some Ukraine pilots who’ve immigrated to different countries.

4226

When another country’s soldiers are in your country all fighting is defensive.

4227

I think it is great all the equipment that is being sent to Ukraine - I count Poland, Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and of course the US having announced the sending of supplies and weapons. But I have to wonder if it is just going to be too late. It’s going to take several days to pack/ship this stuff and then it has to be gotten to the UA inside Ukraine,
which will be a whole other set off problems.

The other problem is manpower. I think the Ukrainians made a huge mistake in not mobilizing their reserves earlier. I just think things could have been very different if they had been more prepared and equipped up front.

4228

Uh, I posted a tweet above made by an EU Parliamentary aide who said it was happening. He’s a direct source.

4229

AFP is a legitimate news agency. Unfortunately I couldn’t find a matching article on their website, but this is on their twitter feed:

Also @Grifman’s post upthread is from the Twitter verified account of Senior Advisor to the EU Parliment.

4230

I hear you but none of those are any kind of official confirmation. There is so much information being released it’s difficult to keep up. It might be true - I’m just saying that I’m skeptical.

4231

I’ve been kind of wondering about that too. I’ve seen some claims (from actual military people who undoubtedly know more than I do) who say a pause (as in Putin’s claims he’s going to hold peace talks), helps Russia because it lets him bring up more troops and get his supply chain in order.

But wouldn’t that also let Ukraine finish getting their reserves up and organized and allow NATO to get more supplies in?

I’m just not sure what I’m missing. Maybe Ukraine reserve situation is hopelessly messed up because this reserves are no in cities already engaged as ad hoc troops and not in their normal formations and without their regular equipment?

4232

I hear you, it does sound too good to be true. That was certainly my first response.

4233

😬

4234

This is like when someone asked the Oakland Athletics twitter account for a source when the Oakland Athletics announced a trade a few years ago.

“The source is literally us.”

Or in this case, a verified senior advisor to the EU parliament.