4235

There is an A-10 pilot somewhere drinking in a corner, that’s for sure.

4236

And right now I’m picturing an A-10 going all Leeroy Jenkins and it amuses me greatly.

4237

So let’s say Belarus joins in. Now we have two nations invading a third, though apparently neither of the aggressors’ militaries is all that enthusiastic about the war. That would seem to one, prove Belarus is merely a Russian satrap, and certainly should be sanctioned exactly the same, and two, offer a plausible reason for increased support and aid to Ukraine, as it would be a serious escalation. It’s pretty clear now that Russia under Putin has zero intention of allowing anything other than a reconstructed Soviet Union to exist in the region, regardless of what the people living there want.

4238
4239
4240

At this point it looks like the solution is going to come internally from Russia, a solution where we make at the end macabre jokes about the last thing to go through Putin’s mind.

In some ways this reflects the EU’s longstanding unwillingness to deal with the states on their borders; Moldova, Belarus, and Ukraine have all had various degrees of unrest, bouts of a return of communism, corruption, market collapses, and general malaise. Belarus remains a tin pot dictatorship, Moldova has finally hammered after 30 years something like a normal country together, and Ukraine right when it appears ready to join nations like Poland in equal “dignity” gets invaded by Russia. It’s also clear that until this moment none of these states have shared in the mind of the EU ‘equal dignity’ as a truly “real” states and not weird leftovers from the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Ukraine at least is paying in blood for that recognition right now.

Any solution here is probably going to have to address a long term solution to the issues facing these nations. I don’t see how you can leave a Putin patsy in charge of a police state after allying himself with an invasion of a neighbor - in fact I can’t really see Belarus remaining independent without an uprising from the people. Whatever the end for Ukraine, Belarus seems like to cede itself to Moscow.

To be honest the scariest thing passing through Putin’s mind is what might happen when a nuclear state nukes a non-nuclear state.

4241

Here’s a question: what can Ukraine give up at the negotiating table to let Putin walk away with at least a bit of face, but not be enough that he ever thinks he can do this again?

I worry that this might be the only path that prevents Ukraine from having total war waged upon its civilian population. I want to see Putin gone, but it’s not worth a pyramid of millions of Ukranian skulls.

That Sun Tzu quote might also apply to Putin right now.

4242

I don’t imagine Putin will willingly walk away with anything less than all of Ukraine.

4243

image

4244

Do they also have a hotshot kid whose father was an Air Force pilot?

4245

Promise to recognize Russia’s annexation of crimea, to setup the Donbas as autonomous provinces, and to hold new elections with international observers.

4246

Definitely a good question, the corollary is what is Zelensky willing to give up? I suspect not very much, Crimea, Donbas? I have my doubts.

4247

“Listen Vlad, you leave my country right now, which includes Crimea, all of it, and the Donbas, and we’ll let you have your economy back.”

4248

Belarus has already “joined in” in the most meaningful way it can by allowing Russia to keep troops in and launch an invasion from their territory. Adding its own tiny amount of troops to that would be minor in comparison.

Belarus has already been sanctioned by the US and the EU for aiding the invasion; this on top of multiple sets of sanctions imposed in the past due to Belarus’s human rights crackdown and rigged 2020 election.

TLDR: Belarus is already in it with Putin up to its neck.

4249

My hope is that this would cause enough instability to collapse the Bellarusian regime.

4250

Posting this mainly for the example he used.

4251

So now 2 countries will be attacking Ukraine?

4252

It seems like it’d at least be worth considering? They haven’t had de-facto control of those areas for years, and regaining control during this war doesn’t feel like a realistic outcome.

Restoring the status quo for at least a few years seems like it’d be incredibly beneficial from them. A democratic Ukraine that emerges from this war will be pulled directly into the EU’s orbit, and get so much military and economic aid that a repeat attempt by Russia becomes implausible.

4253

We need to do this…not that I’m holding my breath.

4254

Right now some Saudi prince is on the phone saying ‘hold the fuck up mate’