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Ukrainian source, but looks like Kiev is holding.

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Saw a similar report.

Dawn broke a few minutes ago. We should see a lot of new pictures of destroyed and abandoned vehicles in the next few hours if this is true.

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Open of Russian markets delayed.

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I was reading Russian TASS to see if I could find more direct confirmation of the market open delay and ran across this very Russian story.

Izvestia: scammers began to offer citizens to secure funds from sanctions

Attackers offer to transfer money to a supposedly safe account, the newspaper notes

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The Guardian liveblog has the best typos:

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The The ISW’s latest update describes the weekend as an “operational pause” while Russia tries to re supply and reinforce. That monster convoy might be evidence of that.

Starting off from the assumption that Ukraine was going to lose very quickly (though not in five days), there has been so much evidence that the Russian army is underperforming, and the Ukrainians over performing, that I find myself suffering from optimism. And I don’t trust it.

It still seems to me that this is the very early stages for any war. And if the Russians can manufacture a breakthrough on any front, that will present the Ukrainians with a problem that they probably don’t have the resources to deal with. The current position seems very brittle, and I find it hard to believe that - despite all the clear failings of the Russian army - they can’t keep pounding away for a couple of weeks until something finally breaks.

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To be clear, lasting weeks is the most optimistic scenario. But can Russia last as many weeks under the new sanctions? That’s the question.

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Even if the official Ukrainian government and military fall it’s clear there will be a popular insurgency that is well supported by outside powers with deep pockets. Things are likely to get worse before this ends but there’s little path to anything resembling long term victory for Russia now.

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I too am confused about this. Navigating around Twitter I found some alternate theories. This post is no endorsement - my knowledge of warfare is zero. It’s just random stuff on Twitter I found.

I am conscious that we’re viewing events through a biased lens but perhaps the simple answer is correct and view 1 (bad military, poor logistics etc) is the correct one.

Overview of the competing views:

bazaarofwar gives an overview of view 3:

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Allegedly footage from another TB2 strike

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Maybe…

My nightmare scenario (in terms of long term political implications, not human cost) is that:

  • Putin manages to capture Zelensky and enough top-ranking gov officials / generals in Kyiv to ‘decapitate’ the government which they stated to be their initial plan.
  • Quickly set up a puppet government of pro-russian Ukranians
  • The new puppet government is able to convince/induce/threaten enough police/military personnel to continue serving under them.
  • Russia withdraws military force and keeps a more ‘subtle’ occupation of the country.

Will be much harder for an insurgency if they are throwing molotovs at Ukranians who were serving the Zelensky gov a month prior.

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This seems like it’s impossible for this to happen at this point.

There is zero chance that any Russian installed government will be able to function now. The civilian population will never give up. There’s no way the general population will ever look at some Russian government as legitimate.

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WTF WTF WTF.

So Biden teamed up with Russia and Ukraine to start a war to make people not think about COVID policy decisions here in the U.S.?

She either has head trauma or is speed-lining coke like an elephant sucks water.

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You think that’s a bad take? Our elected officials do much worse.

Which even the dictionary threw shade on.

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Whew, that guy has been hooning it hard on those lines. Laughed my socks off at the elephant-water coke sniffing image.

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I am so angry I want to go there myself and start taking out Russian tanks.

Russian soldiers are also looting and stripping bare anything they can. These jerks need to be wiped out.

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I think it’s highly likely Putin thought subjugating Ukraine would be done swiftly and easily as evinced by this:

Putin invaded Georgia, took the Crimea, radically destabilized Ukraine and suffered nothing. Russian troll farms cracked American democracy and he effectively had a mole in the WH who almost succeeded in fracturing NATO. The reactionary right had their talking points ready to go: Ukraine was nothing more than a corrupt, neo-Nazi globalist Clinton client state that would be liberated by their shining Christian hero. (This was all over conservative media as the invasion commenced. Of course these goons are never held accountable for anything they say or do and switching tone is sufficient evidence that they now support Ukraine. \o/)

And then oops, Zelensky rallied Europe to his side as much as he could (and I’m sure the Biden WH helped though they won’t get credit for it.) Whatever happens, in one fell swoop Putin succeeded in uniting the EU, NATO, ending German pacifism and Swedish neutrality and probably inadvertently saved Taiwan in the process. If the sanctions hold, the Russian economy will be a smoking ruin.

The danger is that Putin still holds power. I think there’s a non-zero chance he tries to take down everyone with him.

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I think there’s a non-zero chance a General, when faced with hitting the nuclear button, instead puts a gun in Putin’s face and pulls the trigger. The last Russian who helped avert nuclear war is hailed as a hero. Putin has laid clear to everyone in his country he’s a thug and an embarrassment. No shame in saving the world from that kind of person.