sharaleo
4315
Disinformation tactic as well, surely, can’t hurt to make the Russians wonder if additional support is already operational.
There’s no particular reason to think a European Parliament staffer would have material inside info on this unless they’re close to one of the national governments in question. The EP doesn’t really have any role in this
Soma
4317
CCP is probably more Machiavellian than just give Putin blanket support. If it looks like the Russians are losing in the ground invasion, or at least not winning convincing, CCP is going to pull support (e.g. not buy grain/gas from Russia) or maybe even knife Putin in the back with an open support for Ukraine.
I’m pretty sure Biden is trying very hard to convince Xi behind the scene to make a firm stand. What CCP really cares about are a) Taiwan and b) prestige. If supporting Ukraine and ditching Putin will get them closer to either of them, it will do it IMO.
BUT there is a potential backlash in social media, because CCP had been painting NATO and US as the bad guy for so long, ditching Putin is a U-turn and it is not clear how CCP can round that square.
The domestic spread of covid is also pulling focus away from foreign affairs. While most of the world had given up and have to live with the virus, PRC and Taiwan are still sticking with elimination of covid. It is getting very hard to eliminate in PRC because of Omicron, but Taiwan is still pretty good. THAT IMO would be focus of CCP, not Ukraine.
I’ve seen a lot of people talk about how the Russian annexation of Donetsk and Lugansk is a precedent for Ukraine. But it’s also kinda vice versa - Ukraine and Donetsk are like China and Taiwan.
Anyway, I’m glad there’s at least no direct Chinese support for Russia. It stands alone. Well, together with Belarus.
I’m not in charge of anything but I wager someone who is in charge will think that equation is worth it.
Or, put in a less macabre way, why should Ukrainians and Ukraine give up anything?
Anonymous have hacked a lot of the Russian and Belarusian media sites. They either do not work or talk about unjust war and Russian losses. tass.ru, onliner.by.
Aceris
4321
Even now the eight elders are gone (which is the reason Xi has been able to accumulate the power he has) there is still tremendous caution in the upper echelons of the CCP leadership and a fear of a leader losing it as he tries to retain control. Which is exactly what Putin looks like. I expect the CCP will now largely stay out of the situation - obviously there will be the usual anti-NATO and anti-West propaganda, but they have a tremendous aversion to what Putin now represents.
I’ve got to say, AI feel almost bad for the Russians, the soldiers I mean.
As a soldier, I can think of few things worse than fighting a determined enemy that is peer or near peer, in their homeland, in their cities.
On the other hand, I am also feeling some serious schadenfreude.
Soma
4323
IMO the comparison is more like Russia and Crimea vs PRC and Taiwan, except Taiwan will put up more resistance than Crimea and is protected by US’s Taiwan Relations Act.
The best argument right now from Biden is “look if you invade Taiwan by force, US doesn’t even have to do anything, the native population will make it very hard for you to occupy it, let alone hold it long term, just look at Ukraine”. And of course CCP wants Taiwan intact, with all the chip foundries and associated infrastructure intact. Only the diehard nationalists would want Taiwan in rubble.
BUT the situation is very different, Ukraine’s landmass is so much larger compared with Taiwan, it is possible PRC had it all planned out that a rapid, overwhelming invasion can take Taiwan by surprise and relatively intact. But then we have all seen how Russian planning differs so much from reality. And any troop build up would be called out by US just like in Russia, so there would be no element of surprise.
Grad (Multiple rocket launcher) attacks on Kharkiv civilian houses.
schurem
4325
One thing about the MiG-29’s Poland is donating; they have been upgraded with NATO style radios. That means among other things that they can interface with the E-3 (radar air surveillance) and RC-135 (electronic intelligence) in a clear fashion. Both those types are orbiting just outside the Ukraine.
In aerial combat information is everything. Know what is where, moving in what direction. I you know better than your enemy, his fate is sealed. A dogfight is not what good aerial combat looks like, if conducted properly it looks more like a hit & run sealclubbing. (this incidentally is why fast has long been deemed more important than agile in fighter planes and so explains the F-104)
Ghost of Kyiv might just get real!
That’s what expertise I have to offer this thread.
On a completely different note,
I don’t do twitter. I never managed to wrap my head around it and despise it too much to ever do. However in times like these, it is undubitably an extremely valuable source of (dis)information. I want to thank all of the posters here who post snippets of twitter and other news sources. I would like it if y’all kept it up!
And third:
SLAVA UKRAINA! Fuck 'em up you bunch of yellow-blue gopniks!
Soma
4326
IMO Xi’s hold on PRC is almost exactly like Putin on Russia, with additional personality cult to boot. Xi had been purging domestic rivals ever since he rose to power. He is now Emperor Xi more or less. There will surely be people lurking in CCP who hate this concentration of power, but anyone who dare to speak ended in jail or in exile.
TimJames
4327
I was going to complain about how dumb Twitter still is, but it seems petty with Ukrainians dying for their country at the moment. And just like normal times, there are a few gems among the garbage. So carry on, Twitter!
spiffy
4328
Why wouldn’t Russia have put holes in every Ukranian tarmac and a bomb in every hangar by now? Wouldn’t hitting every known military airfield in Ukraine be the highest possible priority? You can’t exactly keep a fighter jet airfield secret nowadays, or launch jets from a grassy field anymore, right?
How? Bombing them would cost a lot of very expensive aircraft.
spiffy
4330
Guided missiles? I thought Russia was good at those.
Hm, maybe a range issue? Not sure.
schurem
4332
It is surprisingly easy to patch up a runway. The MiG-29 has some design features that enable some pretty rough field operations such as a door that closes off the engine intakes while the machine is on the ground, opening louvres on top of the machine to allow them to breathe.
Airfield damage usually is measured in hours to repair. Using regular bombs of about 250 kilos the time to repair is only about two or three hours. Hence, in the cold war, specialised runway denial weapons were thought up and deployed. I could go on and on about them, but suffice to say, they have been pretty much relegated as a thing of the past the last thirty years.
So you can bomb the shit out of an airfield, get some of the airplanes on the ground if you’re lucky, but it should cost you. You fly a very predictable course when bombing a runway, and that is partytime for anybody with a heavy autocannon or shoulder launched heatseeker.
TLDR: Dropping a 300 kilo warhead by cruise missile on a runway will only close it for a couple hours. It is not a very cost-effective way of doing business.
I think what we are seeing, at least in part, is how years of the US and NATO easily achieving air supremacy over vastly inferior target countries doesn’t actually translate very well to a conflict against a country with more capabilities.
Galdred
4334
I don’t think Taiwan is that high on the priority list of the CCP:
They know getting troops ashore would be very difficult. They lack the amphibious capabilities, and Taiwan has a lot of anti ship systems.
I think their immediate concerns are more about contesting the US sphere of influence in the region.
And the invasion of Ukraine gives them an awesome opportunity, as it is likely to get more East European countries to request a stronger US presence (making it harder for the US to deploy more troops in the pacific).
They don’t have any reason to ditch Russia, but they don’t need to support it either to benefit from the situation.
