4698
4699

I understand this and echo what others have said about your family and I appreciate that even in all of that stress you’re willing to engage us here with a view we may not otherwise be getting.

4700
4701

Glad you asked, how about the poor threatened Russians:

4702

They did.

Turns out it wasn’t worth much.

See, they were “assurances” not “guarantees”.

4703

Gotta say, ‘Russian warship, go fuck yourself’ seems to be the correct response from ukraine and the rest of the world. They are young, scrappy, and hungry and we should help them to get their shot, even if we’ve made a mess of it over the last 20 years in the US.

4704

I don’t usually watch his speeches, but I did watch this one. What he said is often misrepresented. He was saying that Russia and Ukraine has the common history and culture. That’s mostly true. He said that that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people. (Note: not the same nation) This is up for a debate. He said that Ukraine in its current borders was created by Soviet Union. This is also true. He never said that Ukraine or Ukrainians don’t have the right to exist. He expressed anger of mistreatment of residents of Donbass that was included into Ukraine for no good reason. He also mentioned that he (they) know who burned people in Odessa on May 2, 2014 and that they will be taken to the court.

The last thing is another strike against the Ukrainian government. How come that in 8 years you couldn’t do it?

Ukraine wanted to go through the process for the last 14 years. Why do you think it would be easier for Russia?

I applaud your dedication, but I don’t think I have the willpower to follow your example.

That’s true, but how can you justify a decision made in 2008 by what happened in 2022?

They didn’t conquer Libya, but they screwed it up. They screwed up Yugoslavia. And when Germany and France didn’t like the idea to invade Iraq, US did it with the coalition of the willing. Please note that many Eastern European states who feared Russian conquest so much were quite happy to join.

When I talk to Ukrainians about corruption, they point out that it exists everywhere, including the United States. They would say that it’s an excuse, not a reason.

I doubt it. When Putin asked whether Russia can join NATO, it was a democracy. A young, imperfect democracy, but a democracy nonetheless. It’s after the Putin’s speech on the Munich Security Conference in 2007 that Russia became the threat and Putin became the masked villain.

I have no idea. Unlike many talking heads, I don’t know what Putin or his generals think.

I don’t think that the decision to invade was forced. I think Putin owns it. But I think that it would be nice for all players to take into account each other’s security concerns.

4705

To avoid breaking it down by point, yes, a lot of the grievances he expressed in that one speech have an element of legitimacy. But to everything he and you said I reply

But then he invaded Ukraine! This wasn’t a TED talk. This wasn’t the opening of a diplomatic negotiation. He invaded a sovereign nation.

(I was mainly posting that speech since it was the easiest one to google on short notice right now. Not to prove any point about his view of his place in history. This speech was his big rationalization of murdering a whole lot of people to take control of a country so it focus grievances no matter how real or imaginary. Still, even in it, you see the elements of his obvious shtick. Not to mention all the “but I had to” crap he’s been falling back on now.)

4706

Did NATO cause the conflict that cause the breakup of Yugoslavia? There’s a little misplacement of the cart and horse here. A whole thread can probably be dedicated to how the conflict was handled by NATO that despite the lack of recent news causing this thread to go off in tangents (sorry) we shouldn’t get into here, but NATO did not exactly “screw up Yugoslavia”.

Edit: Also, thank you for participating and I hope the discussion at least takes your mind off things.

4707

Russia is welcome in NATO. They just have to abide by the terms. One step in the right direction is NOT INVADING YOUR NEIGHBORS.

4708

From the Wikipedia article:
The United States publicly maintains that " the Memorandum is not legally binding "

I guess like those promises to Gorbachev not to expand NATO?

Thanks, I’ll read it!

Indictments that include two Russian nationals (evidence points to that, that they were members of GRU–Military Intelligence Services)…

Have you seen any of the evidence? I’m not saying it doesn’t exist, just curious.

He did, and it was the pre-invasion speech. I’m not trying to justify the invasion. I’m expressing sadness that

  1. the United States outright rejected the idea of not including Ukraine into NATO, and
  2. us conflating the Ukrainian people with the Ukrainian government, which in my honest opinion is a liability, not an asset.

NATO bombed civilian targets in Belgrade in order to stop Milošević. In my opinion, you can’t have innocent victims in one part of the world and collateral damage in another.

Thanks! I’ll shut up, I promise, and will go back to games where I usually lurk.

4709

No, don’t shut up. The entire purpose of P&R is to collectively relieve our anxieties through good natured discussion and humor. At least that’s what I get from it.

4710

So, do you think the US government has direct contact with the elites / Putin’s inner circle in Russia and that we try to persuade them it is in their and the Russian peoples’ best interest to remove Putin from power? And if so, do you think there is any chance of it happening?

4711

So obviously he future is uncertain, but it seems to me that ‘fuck off Russian warships’ has some ‘remember the Alamo’ potential. It has that punchy quality that captures the spirit of the moment.

(also both were ultimately doomed stand offs that galvanized a people)

4712

Of course NATO didn’t cause the conflict in 1990s Yugoslavia, a country cobbled together from a bunch of smaller polities (dominated by Austria-Hungary?) till the end of World War I IIRC, and forcibly brought back together by Tito at the end of WWII. Once the Cold War was history, the old resentments came back and broke out into war in Europe again. There were images of emaciated people in freaking concentration camps again FFS. The only things missing in that picture were gas chambers and crematoria. But Einsatztruppen there were (the Srebrenica Massacre), and they were Serbian.

4713

Biggest value of NATO is not so much as a collective defense alliance, but rather: it ended a civil war in Europe that had been going on since the fall of the western Roman empire.

4714
4715

Wasn’t expecting shrinking convoy…

4716

He talked about it, several times. But there’s no indication that he was every serious about it, and Russia doesn’t get to set the terms (see a trend here?) of admission to an alliance they don’t currently belong to. In the end, Russia never applied for membership, so the conclusion I draw from that is that he was never serious about it.

It wouldn’t be easy. First, Putin would have to give up power and have free and fair elections. Then the elected govt would need to make a number of reforms to strengthen and enhance democratic institutions. None of that is easy. But unless you are admitting Russia is incapable of making those reforms, then there’s no reason to believe that they couldn’t be admitted, like every other nation that has entered. The requirements are the same for everyone. Surely if Romania or Bulgaria can do it, Russia can, right?

As for why Ukraine hasn’t been admitted, I have to believe that you are being intentionally obtuse. Ukraine’s govt/democracy has been anything but stable, and corruption is still a big problem. And perhaps the biggest has been the ongoing dispute in the Donbas. NATO wasn’t going to admit Ukraine until that was solved. All of that has been pretty clear and I can’t believe you don’t know that. And this shows the lack of aggression by NATO - they have excluded both Georgia and Ukraine specifically because they don’t want a war with Russia. If NATO were really all that aggressive, you’d think they admit Ukraine/Georgia regardless of any territorial disputes with Russia.

And you, yourself have complained about the Ukrainian govt, so I’m not sure why you think NATO should think differently than you do about it.

I’m not justifying the 2008 decision by 2022. I’m justifying it by Russian history where they seek to dominate their neighbors, which is why countries like the Baltic States, Poland, etc all wanted to join NATO, and which the 2022 invasion of Ukraine is just further evidence. Ukraine isn’t any different, they don’t want to be under the thumb of Russia, right?

And this explicitly wasn’t a NATO operation. You don’t win any points here.

If they think the level of corruption of in the US and Ukraine is the same, then they aren’t really facing the problem in their country realistically. The US ranks 27 on the global corruption perception index, Ukraine 122.

And they never applied nor did they every seek to undertake the reforms that were needed. In fact Putin took them in other direction, towards authoritarianism. I think it’s pretty clear he was never serious. He wasn’t going to give up power, ever.

I’ll leave you with the last word, as I don’t think further conversation is fruitful.

4717

Difference there being the Budapest Memorandum that got written down and exists. As far as I’m aware the promise to Gorbachev only ever was something he said had happened but was never written down or even acknowledged by the other side. Not saying it didn’t happen in a conversation just that it was never any kind of recognized international agreement, legally binding or not.

Isn’t there some conflating built in when you’re talking about a democratically elected government where the elected officials presumably reflect the people in some way? Now I understand some of the issues with the government of Ukraine post-Maidan but it also seemed from a distance that the people were demanding better from their leaders and moving towards a better place.