Russia better like isolation:
I think there is a clear distinction between providing short-range personal anti-tank weaponry (even a lot of short-range personal anti-tank weaponry) vs something that could conceivably attack targets in Russia. As you say it’s not really the who, or the what; it’s the where.
The idea that Ukrainian soldiers couldn’t attack targets in Russia with anti-tank weapons doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. They’re unlikely to be used that way, because Ukraine isn’t really interested in attacking Russia, but nothing prevents them from being used that way.
I agree there’s a line somewhere, e.g. giving Ukraine nuclear weapons is off the table because that would surely be an escalation. I don’t think it’s obvious that a handful of jet fighters is on the wrong side of the line but tens of thousands of anti-tank weapons are not. Just my view.
Aceris
4802
I mean sure, but ultimately China didn’t think Putin would try to play them because trying to play them was incredibly stupid in the medium term. The same way invading Ukraine was incredibly stupid in the medium term. I don’t think it really reflects Chinese naivety or intelligence weakness so much as something going severly wrong, either in Putin’s head or the system by which he recives information about the world.
I mean even Zelensky, looking at all the Western intelligence showing Russian forces moving into place for an invasion and invasion plans being briefed out, thought Putin wouldn’t launch a full scale invasion, that it was all a bluff and an attempt to bring pressure to bear.
vyshka
4803
What has really seemed odd to me about it is if they were doing that I seriously doubt they would be talking about it to the piblic.
I mean, sure it’s not impossible - though of course they’d have to get there first. Currently I don’t see a realistic argument that could happen. Even if there was a commitment to a land-based counterattack into Russia I’ve not seen stories of countries giving Ukraine IFVs and MBTs that would support and enable that sort of action.
Alternatively an air raid into Russia to destroy artillery/airbase/logistical infrastructure would seem far more plausible, and given the apparent underperformance of Russian anti-air efforts so far, probably also hard to resist.
(I’m not actually against the idea of giving Ukraine aircraft).
It’s the same consideration in either case: with so many targets to strike already inside Ukraine, and no political goals other than an end to the invasion and a restoration of the status quo ante, Ukraine is going to use / risk what weapons it has on targets in Ukraine. It has already struck targets in Russia, but only with missiles, where there wasn’t any risk of losing something irreplaceable like a pilot or a jet.
I think the kicker on the aircraft thing is that you’re dealing with a leader who comes off as irrational. Giving them planes may be perfectly reasonable, but that doesn’t mean it will be received as such, and when war between Russia and NATO is on the table, that’s a pretty big risk to take.
We shouldn’t respond to deranged Russian threats, but we do have to think carefully about things that might cause them to escalate further. When you’re facing a lunatic, sometimes you have to have enough calm for the both of you.
Yes, certainly that’s a consideration.
The thing to do is don’t talk about it, just do it. Make planes available without fanfare, slip thin in to the maintenance/replacement queues as it were, and who really is going to figure out where exactly they came from if they are all the same type anyhow?
I suspect that on both sides there is a bunch of stuff going on that is not being reported.
This now from another Politico journo. No accompanying story or source.
Unfortunately things appear to be developing as expected:
I’m not sure, but I think the EU may have gotten ahead of themselves.
First there’s the aircraft threat, which we apparently didn’t vet, which makes us look dumb, and could embolden Putin, who always seems to have a predatory response to weakness.
Then there’s the EU application. What is that gonna do? It certainly isn’t going to make things less complicated. Either we reject Ukraine, which makes it all seem like pretty tame theater (thoughts and prayers Ukraine, good luck!) or we accept Ukraine, and we’re in a situation where an EU country will probably fall to the Russians.
I don’t see the angle. I suspect someone at the EU got caught up in the excitement, and suggested this as a political stunt without really thinking it through. If not, someone should’ve talked to Zelensky and asked him politely not to apply.
Precisely. By going public, we gave the Russians a chance to respond before we even started.
I don’t really know how it came about. Was it the EU’s idea, or Zelenskyy’s idea? Certainly I understand the appeal to Zelenskyy to doing it, since he’s grasping at straws at this point.
Also not sure if the EU can refuse to accept the application.
I suspect we are beginning to see the end game, or will see it soon. The Russians are in Kherson and have Mariopul surrounded, both in the South. After that they will most likely move to take Odessa, the only remaining large city on the coast. After that they can easily drive north, limited only by their logistics. The south is open steppe, very hard to defend, as both the Soviets and Germans found out in WW2.
It is also possible that the Russians may launch a pincer movement in the Donbas, trapping the troops opposing the separatists there. The Ukrainians may be forced to decide whether to stand and fight or withdraw - if that is even a possibility.
Kharkiv is under heavy artillery bombardment as the gloves start to come off. I would not be surprised if that city falls within 3 to 5 days as it is close to being surrounded, if not already. Given the massive reinforcements we’ve all seen the Russians moving in, the same might be said for Kiyv, though I suspect it will take longer there.
The Ukrainians have fought well, helped by poor Russian performance. But in the end, they will be battered and swamped by the Russians - they just had to much territory to defend with too few troops. They did a good job of training and upgrading their army - they just needed more of them.
I still don’t see the end game for the Russians though. They are going to be ruling over a sullen, antagonistic population. There are going to be protests (there already are in occupied areas), maybe even an insurgency. It’s going to require a significant occupation force, so so much for Russian security when thousands of troops are tied up in Ukraine. They can’t shoot down people in the streets any more. It is likely that many of the young and smart Ukrainians will seek to emigrate, draining the country.
At best this will be a Pyrrhic victory for Putin, and that’s before you even consider the impact of sanctions and the unifying effect this has had on NATO, which are a disaster. We now have a new Cold War, and there’s no easy coming back from that now for Putin. There’s not going to be any “reset”.
What’s the problem with accepting EU application? It’s not like a country can join without going through the process, and it can take forever, although I’m sure it would be expedited somewhat, whatever that might mean, at the very least it’ll be easier than for Turkey (that eventually stopped believing it’ll ever happen).
Not only unifying effect on NATO - generally it has had a massively unifying effect on Europe.
I’ve never seen so much positivity around the EU as right now (helps that Ursuala von der Leyen is doing very well). Even the usual Putin apologists from both sides of the political spectrum are for the most part united in condemning the actual invasion.
If Putin’s goal was to isolate himself in European politics, he literally could not have done anything better.
The way I see it, Von Der Leyen has been going around saying “Ukraine belongs with us” before the application. She made it very clear that she saw a future for Ukraine in the EU, so that’s why I suspect it could be a political stunt.
The EU has to respond to the application, but I assume they’ve been keeping in touch on some level, and would have discussed a move like this. I don’t think Zelensky would bamboozle us with an application, given what’s at stake. I could be wrong!
Yeah, I’m not sure what would happen in terms of process if they were accepted, but even if they were just accepted as a prospective EU member, that would still bind us closer together, and make a Russian annexation of Ukraine a more serious problem for us.
It would be a humiliation for the EU to have to watch more or less helplessly, while an applicant is crushed by the Russians. We stand to lose more than we gain by it.
Guap
4817
Can a country join NATO or the EU if they are actively being attacked? That would trigger immediate allied military action. One would think their charter (or the peiple voting on the application) would prohibit that.
