Nobody knows and that’s the disturbing thing. There are probably a few though:
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The low intensity. Demand the arrest of the current Ukrainian cabinet and prosecute them in Russia for imagined crimes. Effectively turn Ukraine into a puppet state of Russia. Demand Ukraine demobilize and permanently station Russian troops there. In some ways this is the ‘best’ because Ukraine will be independent, in a sense. It’s the worst because Ukrainians will have lost their full political independence.
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The “glass is half full”. Take over the ‘left bank’ of the Dnieper, including Kyiv. This probably includes parts of Belarus, because it’s clear Belarus is the model state Putin wants Ukraine to become. This at least lets Ukrainians be independent on the right bank of the Dnieper.
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The “the glass is all mine”. Demands the end of Ukrainian independence. Probably demands Belarus submit and become a province of Russia, which it probably will. Will quickly move and seize Transdniestria from Moldova. Probably won’t take over Moldova, as it’s mostly Romanian speakers. This will lead of course to decades of unrest.
Whatever the outcome it makes Kaliningrad now looks like an unsheathed knife at the heart of the Baltic and Poland. It’s also now clear part of the rationale for seizing Crimea was this very moment, encircling the Ukraine strategically.
From our perspective, yeah. I have no idea what Putin thinks about all of this; he seems capable of a lot of self-delusion. More importantly, in the long run, is what Russians in general think. Is this sort of bumbling, crude demonstration of brute force power sufficiently important to them to justify the very real economic and social costs? Is the mid-level Russian state apparatus willing or able to throw a wrench into the machinations of Putin and his cronies? Are the urban, more cosmopolitan Russians willing or able to push back on what is in effect sending them back to the metaphorical dark ages of the USSR’s isolation (only worse, as they don’t have an empire of sycophants)?
For the West, the crucial thing is, to me, establishing as iron-clad as possible policies, procedures, and preparations to ensure that nothing like this happens again. That may well mean replacing the old east/west border in Germany with one along the lines of Belarus and Ukraine, with similar levels of forward deployed forces and perhaps the addition of Finland to NATO.
Belarusians try to do stuff.
Just as a general heads up: one should expect military and foreign affairs coverage from Politico to be about as useful as, I dunno, videogame coverage from Car and Driver. It’s not what they do.
It takes at least a decade to join the EU after application, even on a fast track.
It seems it was just an opportunity for Von Der Leyen to speak on the crisis, and for Zelensky to give a speech to the EU parliament.
They have “agreed to work towards Ukraine joining the EU.”. Nothingburger.
As far as Putin’s endgame goes, I keep coming back to thinking along these lines:
On ACOUP*, Bret frequently refers to the different types of things rulers had to do to demonstrate the legitimacy of their government. (For example, medieval kings were expected to arbitrate disputes between their vassals, be successful in war, etc.) I think the framing that makes the most sense for this war, for me, is that it’s about Putin’s legitimacy. Did he view presence of a successful(-ish), democratic(-ish), free(-ish) former soviet republic right on Russia’s border a threat to the legitimacy of his regime? I really don’t buy the “legitimate security concerns over NATO’s expansion” line, but potential Ukrainian membership may have been similarly seen as a threat to his government’s legitimacy. This may be especially true if he’s built up his legitimacy through, uh, “adventures” in places like Chechnya, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Crimea, etc.
It seems like the Russian government was expecting a quick conquest, and even if not literally being greeted as liberators (they’re probably not that misinformed), at least the ability to paint it as such to their own people. I’m not sure what kind of face-saving (i.e. legitimacy-bolstering) out Putin has, other than leveling the place and saying, “look at all those dead Nazis in Kyiv/Karkhiv/etc, isn’t it great you have me to do the dirty work.” Perhaps he hopes to spin the unification of Europe against him as, “See, I told you they hated Russia” as another aspect of this.
*I bring this blog up so much it might as well be a drinking game. I apologize.
Why? I’m not trying to be obtuse, it’s an honest question.
Not at all. Zelenskii and other performers from “95 Kvartal” were in Gorlovka and Donetsk in April 2014. The area was under the separatists’ control already. He gave an interview to a local newspaper where he said that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people and that everyone has the right to speak whatever language they choose.
You can say that it’s a fake and that separatists put words into Zelenskii’s mouth, but he stated his position in other places as well. Why did he decide he can’t talk to the same people after he became the president is beyond me. Sorry, I couldn’t find a proper translation into English, but hopefully Google translate can do a decent job.
KevinC
4827
How would Zelensky speaking with the separatists in 2019 prevented Putin wanting to get the band back together?
You’re saying give diplomacy a chance, but what kind of diplomacy do you see averting Putin wanting to rebuild a Russian empire? Aside from capitulation, I mean.
It’s not a nothingburger, it’s a promise that if Ukraine survives and goes through the process, it too can be a member of the EU, and gain the same advantages as the countries in the EU that they border.
And it’s a promise that’s worth enough that it has been historically deployed in other situations to good effect, at least in the sense that countries have done what they can to try and enter.
If Ukraine entering the EU before the EU manages to reform enough that it can fix the problems it faces is a good thing, I have no idea, but it’s not like EU membership hasn’t been used as a carrot for decades to get countries to do stuff.
According to the Minsk agreements, Donbass would get some autonomy rights but would stay within Ukraine. You can say it wouldn’t satisfy Putin, but since Russia together with France and Germany were the mediators, I think it would. Ukraine outright refused to talk to the separatists.
KevinC
4830
If that’s all Putin was interested in, why is his army in Kyiv and why is he putting out essays talking about how Ukraine’s not a real country etc. etc.? I guess we’ll never know, but I just don’t see this as having much to do with the separatist regions at all. It has to do with Putin’s desire for empire.
Thrag
4831
Broadcast tower in Kyiv targeted. News reports Russia is trying to knock out communications so they can spread false story of surrender.
Russian news has a lot more stories about how this is a surgical operation with precision strikes avoiding civilian targets. So you know they are about to shell the shit out of things.
I think that’s how these politicians want you to receive it, but in reality it has absolutely no consequences for anyone. It’s a free round.
This is really well short of the things we could do, like supplying aircraft or armored vehicles, or sending soldiers to help prepare Ukrainian militia on either side of the border. Moral support in a war is fine, but it doesn’t save or kill anyone.
I can see a value in Von Der Leyen getting an opportunity to outline her position, and Zelensky getting an opportunity to drum up support within the EU, but that’s all it is. Words.
We all wanted Ukraine to join the EU before this, so it changes absolutely nothing. We were worried about economy, corruption, oligarchs, basic values and right wing extremists, which were already causing us a lot of trouble in places like Poland, Romania, Malta and Hungary.
Well when the separatists movement is mostly Russia with “volunteers,” I wonder why. The separatist areas split after Russia launched it’s first invasion.
Diplomacy iun this situation is akin to me hitting you on the head, and when you go to retaliate, I berate you for not giving peace a chance.
AND, to further undermine your argument, Ukraine is infact trying to negotiate - a pause which Russia has used to reorganise itself and change tactics. So, really, your question of “why not negotiate?” - ought to be asked of Putin.
Indeed. For Putin, @Valambrian , all of Ukraine is separatist.
I don’t know. Maybe because this way the Ukrainian army in Donbass can be encircled? If he only sent troops to Donetsk and Luhansk, this would be a WWI-style war.
It’s a bad translation. What he is repeatedly saying was that Crimea and Donbass were “gifted” to Ukraine and never belonged to any form of Ukrainian state before 1917. I don’t think it’s an excuse to annex these territories, but in his words it wouldn’t happen if Ukraine wasn’t turned into a Russia’s enemy.
Aleck
4835
I’m not an expert on this area, but even Gorbachev seems to indicate that the “promises” were not about expanding NATO, but about activities in East Germany. There was, simply put, no promise made not to expand NATO.
NATO expansion is also voluntary on the part of the members joining, not coercive. In fact, the reluctance to allow Georgia and Ukraine to join in 2008 (which has been seen as a contributing factor to why Russia invaded Georgia with no consequences later in 2008) shows that NATO is not only non-coercive, but picky about its expansion and membership requirements – something they would not be if it was an offensive alliance designed to destroy or threaten Russia.
All that said, best wishes to your family and I can only imagine the nightmare you’re going through right now. I hope that, rather than just sending thoughts and prayers, the west is able to move diplomacy along in a useful fashion that brings the conflict to and end with minimal casualties on both sides.
It’s just words, sure, but what else can the EU do? How many battalions does it have? How nuke resistant is it?
In any case, I think there’s value in the announcement, since before it, there was always the chance that Ukrainians would be kept out due to whatever reason, probably being too poor / Eastern European / not the right time for EU expansion.
Looks like it’s turning into a bad day today
