I visited yesterday ukranian/russian friend couple. They are shocked about Putin (my friends are living here in the West, they are having friends/family in south of Ukraine).
They definitely condemn the invasion etc. On the other hand they also have a huge mistrust against NATO. They are not convinced that the West has noble motives in all of this. Also, they blame western media for simplifiying things to the point, that it is useless…
But at the end, this current crisis is Putins fault, he is to completely blame, we all agreed on this.
That’s the sort of question I’d like the EU to really think about. A speech isn’t enough for me :)
I think we can agree that a statement on Ukraine joining the EU isn’t nothing, but I think we can also agree that it isn’t much.
A MiG-29 is utterly unsuited for such work. It lacks the range. They are perfect for bushwhacking invaders in a radius of about 150km from your home plate.
The Su-25 is slightly better for it, but it’s too damn slow. Its the Soviet answer to the A-10, and even if its considerably faster than that, to so deep strike or anything like that its woefully slow.
The Mærsk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and ONE shipping companies have ceased operations to Russia. Even if they could get goods through the sanctions, it’s going to be a lot harder to have them shipped.
vyshka
4842
I hope your family and friends are well and stay safe in whatever is coming in the days ahead.
Because it’s contradictory. If Russia thought (from the stalled process) that Ukraine would not be admitted into NATO, then they did not think that Ukraine was likely to be admitted to NATO.
Right now I see a lot of morbid Russian propaganda along the lines of “Let’s not talk about this invasion, the West would sanction and hate us no matter what we’d do, now we have no choice to unite around the leader”.
Sounds like a pretty good summary of the situation.
In a digression, tangent, today is pancake day. I made some after work, filled them will melted butter, a kind of white nutella I found in Marks and Spencer, and banana.
Delicious.
The pancakes I made are crepes, and it occurred to me that certain heathens, like those heathen who mislabel cider (:P) have different “pancakes” - and then I recalled reading this article, and just like that, I know understand Putin is seeking to control Borsch (and pancakes!)
PS, I am just joking a bit here about serious things, which are often the most in need of jokes.
Getting back on topic:
Ukraine live updates: Russia warns it will hit targets in Kyiv - BBC News
Earlier the Russian defence ministry warned Kyiv residents that it was preparing to hit targets in the capital.
I thought they were already hitting targets?
You see, before that Ukrainians bombed their own cities to discredit Russians.
:(
I’m very, very pessimistic about Putin being removed from power any time soon, regardless of how badly this invasion is bungled. Would love to be wrong.
If by the “first invasion” you mean the occupation of Crimea, then you are right. If you mean an invasion of Donbass region, then you are wrong. Turchinov (Oleksandr Turchynov - Wikipedia) sent troops into Donbass in April 2014. Russia started to send heavy equipment to the separatists in June/July and directly intervened in August 2014 (War in Donbas - Wikipedia).
The separatists took over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but they didn’t try to capture other parts of Ukraine. I’m not sure what do you refer to by “hitting you on the head”. Could you please elaborate?
I’m not talking about negotiations with Putin. Everyone and their dog want to negotiate with him. I’m talking about negotiating with the separatists and finding out what would be a solution acceptable to both sides.
I think it’s a straw man argument. How do you know what he thinks?
Oh, I see. Thanks for the clarification! My understanding is that Putin is worried about US weaponry being deployed in Ukraine at any moment even without Ukraine joining NATO. More cautious NATO members, like France or Germany, would be able to prevent it.
You can say that we are the good guys and have no plans to do this, but I’m afraid that the other side sees it differently.
He has told us? Or was that a bad translation too?
Let’s just say there’s hope that Russian sociology is as impotent as Russian military intelligence. Propaganda worked as long as it didn’t want anything from people apart from nodding for some agreement. Last year Russians were basically in rebellion against COVID regulations and forced the government to back down on that. No amount of propaganda helped because they distrust the government when it comes to government involvement in their own lives. When the government talks about some nation being evil - sure, whatever, I agree, as long as you leave me alone.
Oh man. I have a lot of respect for you based on our prior interactions, but here it looks like we are consistently talking past each other. What do you think is the common ground between us that we can start from?
If it was a direct message, could you please share? If it’s available online, could you please provide a link?
CraigM
4853
So This American Life put together a show about Putin. The reason I mention this is because it is a good mix of old and new, primary source and outside view. It covers his rise replacing Yeltsin, to the view of people within the country.
One particular note is one of the journalists on this episode did a year as a foreign exchange student in Moscow in the late 90’s. He went back to visit his host mother in 2017, and talked to her about Putin. It was fascinating because it showed a genuine affection for Putin, and why.
Anyhow it is worth a listen, if only to get some lesser know (in the west) information. It does help answer how he maintains power, when from the outside it seems so strange
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/763/the-other-mr-president
This seems to me like one of those completely unpredictable variables where what happens to a single individual could completely change history. Something like Lincoln getting shot or Franz Ferdinand’s car taking a wrong turn or Hitler surviving a bomb. Surely the people who could reasonably act against Putin have more of an opportunity now, but it’s likely a bunch of random dice rolls as to where this ends up.
Something is seriously wrong with Russian supply lines/morale/planning or something…
A little more clarity on that “40 mile convoy”
Close analysis of the latest satellite images by McKenzie Intelligence Services reveals the following:
- The convoy is not 40 miles long, it’s a series of logistical ‘packets’ strung out along a major highway from the Belarus border, aiming to link up with Russian units on the northern outskirts of Kyiv.
- The convoy appears to be hampered in several places by broken down vehicles.
- The column consists of some armour (tanks) and infantry fighting vehicles but mainly logistical vehicles, implying plans for more than just a brief battle.
Separately, the imagery examined by McKenzie Intelligence Services shows a Russian parachute battalion dug in to the area of Hostomel airfield - Ukraine’s most important international cargo airport and a key military airbase near Kyiv.
But their artillery is assessed to be outside the range of most of the capital.
The analysts say they have noted very little Russian progress over the past 24 hours.
I’m looking at that muddy field and wondering how badly the spring rings are going to snarl any Russian off-road movement.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/SG4XD3Q465JDHKLDGAQ26DGTVY.jpg)
