I’m not sure that is always true, especially when you take into account disparate military capability. I’m pretty sure it wasn’t true for the Iraq wars, for example, or for the Six Day War.
We’re not necessarily talking a siege of a castle or Thermopylae.
A lot depends on willpower. If people run, casualties are usually lighter. If they stay and fight, casualties are higher. Sometimes a discrepancy in tech/power leads to people throwing in the towel before they die. On the other hand, if morale is high and the lower-tech/less advantaged side stands and fights, casualties on both sides will be higher. In Iraq the Iraqis generally didn’t have the will to stand toe to toe, nor the tech. In Ukraine, it’s a different story.
Houngan
5384
The trick is that if Russia is willing to use its weapons superiority and raze cities, then it becomes the emplaced defender for any Ukrainian response. There was never going to be an infantry campaign into the cities, that’s for mopping up and establishing the new order after the defender’s morale is broken over the cost of continuing resistance.
dtolman
5385
One thing to remember is that the UA is mainly on foot, while the Russian army are in armored vehicles that are easy juicy targets for squads of infantry with shoulder launched anti-tank missiles.
abrandt
5386
In the modern maneuver-heavy world I’d think that recon and coordination ability play a huge role as well.
I was today years old when I learned that Ecuador flower growers export $120m per year in flowers to Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. Apparently they’re currently owed $36m for shipments made already this year to Russia and they will not be paid due to sanctions. This is a lot of money for people who grow flowers in Ecuador. I guess the sanctions impact is going to be felt in lots of places beyond Russia.
Is there a point where the Russians have gone too far in flat out murdering civilians, and other countries have to be more involved in a material way? Or are we doomed to watch from the sidelines and watch Putin dig his own grave economically while he murders thousands of civilians?
I understand why we don’t want to intervene and start WW3, but it makes me sick to my stomach that we have to stand by.
I think it’s B, sadly. I don’t like it much either.
It should, be we do ignore that sort of thing pretty routinely.
One of the things that made my stomach turn recently was watching the Burmese who were so sure that the UN were gonna come and save them, while we were always gonna let them be slaughtered and tortured by the junta.
I’m not sure we even did very much to help in that case, aid or intelligence wise.
I’m not sure what to say about that, except hug someone you love, pet an animal, enjoy nature. Because if you spend too long thinking about that stuff, it will hurt you.
Aceris
5391
I mean, that’s the Syria precedent. And Assad didn’t even have nukes.
Leonid Brezhnev is not walking through that door.
Interesting thread roll up on evidence of systemic very poor maintenance practices for heavy Russian vehicles abandoned / captured in Ukraine. It’s speculation, but you can see why from the videos / photos.
They drank all the antifreeze.
Houngan
5395
Right you are, but everything and anything we could do directly leads to WWIII. Putin is on his last legs both politically and personally, and there’s nothing you can do to control the presumed suicide-bomber aspect of him right now. If we wanted to step in we could wipe the entire Russian force off the map in a long night of air power, but we can’t and we mustn’t.
I’ve seen several reports that there was a Russian parachute drop in Kharkiv today, but not much detail about that. Guardian says it happened, also says that Ukraine is still in control of Kharkiv. Is there any better reporting on that?
I’m amazed that they keep making airborne assaults on what seem to be unsecured drop zones.
Kyiv is getting rocked right now, apparently.
Can anybody speak to this? I found it an interesting observation about the potential fate of commercial flight in Russia, but it’s by Random Internet Dude so not exactly a reliable source (thread):
antlers
5399
Ukrainians in listed categories after the Russians take over.
I’ve seen at least 3 different versions of that commercial air doom story. It rings true to me. Like most of the world, they fly Boeings and Airbuses. They aren’t going to get replacement parts, they aren’t going to get support from non-Russian service providers, etc. They use services like Sabre for bookings, and they’ll probably be booted from those. And as the economy craters, people won’t be spending their money on air travel anyway.
Houngan
5401
My impression is that the sanctions on them right now, nothing further, are a tombstone. Cuba didn’t have it a tenth as bad, they still had most of the rest of the world visiting them and trading with them. Russia has China, maybe the UAE, and that’s it. So playboy trips and big money deals but zero for 99% of their population going forward. I’m honestly worried that it may be so bad they hit the big red button.
