Actually, most game theory research was performed by DARPA and RAND precisely to be able to figure out what to do in this game of nuclear brinksmanship. Most analysts considered that poker was the game of choice for modeling because it depends on imperfect information. The difference between poker and nuclear brinkmanship is if both players put all their chips in the middle, everyone loses.
Putin, is cold warrior and he surely understand how the game is played. Sadly probably better than any western leader.
The analysis that No Fly Zone → NATO and Russian planes start firing at each other → Nukes start flying is much too simplistic.
The game actually starts, with declaring a No Fly Zone a possible option, but let’s skip that and start with
Blue Team Turn 1: NATO declares a No Fly Zone over Ukraine.
Red team Turn 1: Greatly simplified each team, can fold, call, raise, or negotiate.
Putin folds and stops flying fixed and rotary aircraft, except where there is a massive SAM sites. (so basically, 100-200KM from the border.
He calls and challenges the NFZ, with fighter sweeps, and escorting bombing runs.
Putin raises and launches cruise missiile strikes at NATO airbase in Poland, Romania.
He negotiates
Blue Turn 2: Putins call,
NATO can fold, and fail to intercept or attack Russian airplanes, with lots of finger pointing about malfunctioning weapon systems
NATO can call and engage Russian airplane and very likely prevailing in air war over friendly Ukranian
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If the airwar goes badly, NATO can also raise and use cruise missile, and stealth prlane to attack Russian airfields comand&control
NATO can negotiate.
Blue Team Turn 2: Putin Raises
Nato can fold, at the cost of much prestige, and NATO crisis
NATO can call, if the cruise missile don’t cause a big loss, simply continue the air war and likely prevail in establishing air superiority in Ukraine
NATO can raise, launch our own cruise missiles and airbase strikes, or it can invoke article 5 and declare war on Russia
NATO can negotiate.
There way too many possibility to go through all of them.
Putin folds are big wins, it is unlikely that Russia can conquer Ukraine, without air superiority and Ukraine can be supplied by the west.
An air war over Ukraine, is very likely to result in NATO victory, and lot of shot down Russian planes, it will be awful for morale, and humiliating for Putin. I think Putin knows that and it very unlikely will start an air war.
Putin raise and NATO folds, weapons shipment stops, and Ukraine fails quickly. While this is very bad for Ukraine, I’d argue it better than the likely status quo, where Russia pounds the shit out Ukraine with planes and artillery and kills them slowly. Putin is good player and I wouldn’t be shocked if he did this,
A full-scale conventional war erupts, this is bad, like Beau I think it is unlikely to end up, in nuclear war, unless NATO invades Russia proper.
Finally, let’s talk about the most likely option, the parties negotiate. Putin has no reason to negotiate with Zelensky, he doesn’t pose an existential threat, NATO does.
President Zelensky has called for a No Fly Zone, in his latest interview CNN. He is smart to ask but honestly, he doesn’t need them YET. Right now Russian aircraft aren’t a significant factor in the fight, there have been plenty of helicopters shot down, and few fixed wing. Miraculously the Ukranian airforce is still in existence. Most importantly Kyiv is still receiving military aid.
But what happens in a few weeks, when the major cities are surrounded? How do the cities get supplies? There aren’t enough stingers to give every truck or van a stinger crew, if you get strafed by surprise attack it wouldn’t even matter.
That’s where negotiations come in. A reasonable compromise would be a series of humanitarian No Fly Zones, that allow refugees to leave, and supplies to flow into the cities. Perhaps patroled by NATO fighters .
My question for all of you oppose even the discussion of No Fly Zone, is after Russian troops surround Kyiv and other cities. How do you keep those cities from turning into a Grozny, Aleppo, Leningrad?
If someone has a better suggestion than no-fly zones, I’d love to hear it
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