Maybe he thought that with Trump it wouldn’t be a problem, maybe he thought that with Covid the West had more to worry about, maybe he eventually bought the idea that Ukraine would welcome Russia, maybe he’s feeling old and thinks there’s no more time, maybe, maybe, maybe.
Future historians will discuss it, assuming there’s any.
This war will continue to make little sense as long as you try to understand it from the strategic and geopolitical point of view instead of the internal Russian one.
Last year Putin’s rating fell below 30% for the first time. Here’s your answer why now.
jpinard
5506
Lol. Putin doesn’t have to worry in the least. Every election is rigged.
Quaro
5507
I think I agree with the approval rating argument, but if I wanted to make a case why this year instead of 2018 it might be:
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The most recent German election seemed to result in more pro Russian, pro gas pipeline leadership. This looked to be true in the very first days: Germany was one of the last blockers of Swift, sending only helmuts, etc. Then Putin escalated and scared the crap out of everyone and Germany did a 180.
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The US leaving Afghanistan and it’s quick recapture by the Taliban. Maybe Putin saw this a sign a general western weakness?
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The EU in general being more dependent on Russian gas now than 2018.
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Possibly COVID threw a wrench in an earlier timeline, not 2018 but later years.
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??? How was Zelenskyy seen initially? Wasn’t he all about restarting peace talks with the seperatists?
In the meantime, heartening counter out of Kyiv last night. Some Russian troops cut off. At least for a while. And I think they were already quite hungry.
jpinard
5509
So if Putin has his eyes on Poland or the Baltic states, or a corridor to Kaliningrad, are we just supposed to let him roll over and take them because we’re scared he might use nukes? That’s the gist I’m hearing from many of you. Russia gets to use any force it wants, and we all just put our military heads in the sand.
Judging by the current performance of the Russian army Poland and the Baltics won’t need outside help to repel such an attack.
Ukraine could certainly do with all the helmuts they can get!
Dejin
5513
[Edit] CNN Correspondent Tweet replacing earlier Reuters Tweet, since this one is clearer
Dejin
5514
UK Ministry of Defence Update:
That seems plausible.
But, If I was Putin, I’d do everything in my power to keep Trump, in power, he is the most destablizing force imaginable. If you are playing the long game, Ukraine can wait. Sure Trump, would have cut off arms sales to Ukraine, and told everybody to welcome Mr. Putin. But I think he would have triggered a revolt, in both Europeand US and maybe even the Republican party.
Not Russian! I think it was from a post on Oryx’s twitter - maybe The Dead District, who I guess probably got it from Ukrainian someones.
They’re encircling the encirclers?
Mate, I’m not a spy satellite. Just clinging to the minutest propaganda-driven hope that’s fed to me.
Lol. I am hoping it is true as well, but if I am reading that map right, it shows the Ukrainian forces pushed out from Kiev.
It is possible and offensive action is part of good defence, but right now I am skeptical.
Encircling the encirclers is a time honored tradition, if true, let’s hope it works better for Ukraine than when the Gauls tried it.
Lurb
5522
Lots of unsubstantiated rumours today (Russian 1st tank army defeated near Kharkhiv, Spetsnaz Lt. General KIA).
Very few actual news.
I saw parts of the propaganda material shown in all Russian schools today… chilling and deranged, North Korea grade.
None of those countries had globalized economies, and none of them faced sanctions this severe except, possibly, North Korea. And that place was a hellhole before sanctions, unlike e.g. Moscow.
