5585

People hope for Foros scenario. Gorbachev went there “for a vacation” and in the meantime, a relatively bloodless coup happened. There’s hope some sort of provisional military junta will take control over the government and deals with this stuff quickly and without much violence. Nobody wants a Russian civil war.

We already see a number of prominent Russian oligarchs realizing that they have opposed the dictatorship all along and proclaiming they support Ukriane, so there’s hope.

5586

I saw some reporting on this, and I think we now have a pretty good idea of what Putin’s initial goals were and I suspect also what the end game will look like.

As I see it, Regime Change in Ukraine has been the plan from Day 1 - ousting or capturing Zelensky, and installing a puppet regime that answers to Putin. No less. That regime would need to be propped up by Russian soldiers, but I doubt a full-scale occupation was envisaged.

Either out of hubris or bad intel, Russia clearly expected that this would proceed in much the same way as the 2014 invasion; Ukrainian forces generally laying down their arms and surrendering, with only limited resistance needing to be overcome.

I think the endgame as Putin sees it remains unchanged I think he’s betting on being able to win the war; i.e., taking Kiev, capturing or killing Zelensky, and opening “negotiations” with some useful tool. This gives him a “victory”, and I suspect we’re eventually going to see the Russian going to any lengths to achieve that victory. Up to and including levelling Kiev.

And while the sanctions are no doubt way harsher than what they expected, I’m very sure he doesn’t intend to back down. Chinese help and the “us vs them” attitude is presumably what he expects will carry Russia through the sanctions.

A military victory - even if costly - allows him to continue to feed the “Strong Man Narrative” (the high losses can be explained by incompetence of generals + perfidious actions of NATO) and Putin clearly doesn’t care if that narrative is built on the corpses of civilians and thousands of Russian troops. I think anything less than such a victory will give the appearance of weakness which he is not willing to accept.

I’m not sure he actually has that many other “good” options from his POV.

5587

I think your comments on China - Russia are mostly wishful thinking. Russia wouldn’t be in Ukraine right now if China had objected to it’s plans one month ago. Xi and Putin are very closely aligned in world view.

5588

Yeah, seems like it. Still, hard to believe they will sustain Russia as it falls.

5589

It is remarkable that China abstained from voting on the UN condemnation of Russia, instead of voting against it.

China is partly shaped by the memory of the world walking soldiers ashore in their ports, and simply calling them their own, but even so, I’m surprised.

The fact that Putin and Xi discussed the invasion means it’s a close relationship, but China refusing to bless the invasion still seems like some kind of message.

5590

How so? What upside is their for China in voting against it? Its not like they need to curry favor with the Russians with a no vote nor would a no vote have changed anything in the West. Abstaining lets them wash their hands of any atrocities or incompetence that happens after the vote.

5591

Interesting thread on some social media activity…

5592

China also abstained from a vote censuring Russia for Crimea in 2014. It’s strategic voting to feign neutrality, not real neutrality. Their actual comments are entirely critical of the West and NATO, not Russia - they refuse to even say the word “invasion”.

Edit: Gady is a China correspondent at the Economist

5593

Russia really leaning into the More Evil. European intelligence officials are saying the Russian FSB has drafted plans for public executions in Ukrainian cities, violent crowd control, and harsh prison for Ukrainian protest organizers.

5594

Another nail in the coffin that was Russian commercial aviation.

I guess maybe if you’re only going to have a handful of flights, you can try to manage schedule and pricing and booking by hand.

5595

If that shit happens then I totally see a new Iron Curtain going up along the NATO frontier with Russia.

5596

Scare tactics I should think. Sorry, I hope.

5597

Also saw reports that leased planes are being repossessed by the owners when they land in the few open destinations, and that the Russian airlines are turning planes back to Russia because of that.

5598

Can you provide the source for that (article, tweet, etc.)? Thanks!

5599

EDIT: From the Bloomberg newsfeed also:

Russia Seeks to Weaken Ukraine Morale: Intelligence Report (2:26 p.m.)

Moscow has drawn up plans for ways to break morale in order to discourage Ukrainian from fighting back as and when cities fall under the Kremlin’s control, a European intelligence official said.

That strategy includes crackdowns on protests, detention of opponents, and potentially carrying out public executions, the official said on the condition of anonymity. So far civilians in Ukraine as well as its military have put up strong resistance, including arming themselves as volunteer forces.

5600

Thanks! Tweeter is a political editor for UK Bloomberg.

5601

Yes, I saw some report that they were going to keep the planes rather than let them be repossessed. This is one of those things — effectively stealing your business partner’s property — that accumulate to meaning that there isn’t any return to normal in the foreseeable future. Nobody will want to invest in Russia for a long, long time.

5602

Yeah I inmeadiately thought “they will just keep the planes” but quickly realized that then they can’t fly them anywhere out of Russia…

5603

Sure, but don’t you think the Russians would rather have had a public show of support?

5604

Soon, probably, they won’t be able to fly them anywhere at all. No parts, and no way to get parts.