This series from Krugman casts some doubt on whether the Russians will be able to lean on China for economic help and what that will mean.
Tl;dr: their economies aren’t particularly complementary, geography works against it, Russia’s economy is a tiny fraction of China’s, Russia has very little to offer to China anyway, and the best they could hope for would be to become a very junior partner / vassal of China.
Grifman
6073
An counter narrative here - overall the Russian plan is working and the Russians are going to win:
It’s a useful and decent analysis, but nearly undone by the poster’s hostility to other views, by his strawmanning their claims, and by his insistence that everything Russian has gone to plan. It seems very likely that Russia will win, and even that some things have gone to plan; but manifestly they haven’t achieved what they meant to yet, and denying that seems, well, churlish.
Just looking at his Twitter profile makes me hesitant to take anything he says to heart.
edit to add: I haven’t read any analysis that says there is an “imminent defeat of Russia”.
Territory held. Inconsistent with what we’ve seen. Ukrainian resistance seems effective. Also assumes that somehow Ukrainians are militarily foolish, which appears inaccurate.
But yeah, I just don’t want to believe it.
Canuck
6077
I think that depends on what “win” means. If you saw Beau’s video posted above, Russia has lost already on basically every metric, even if they do eventually, inevitably, end up taking Kyiv.
This is via Vindman, so treat with caution. Other tweets at least confirm the translation.
Aceris
6079
From the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
A totally reliable and sound source I’m sure.
Quaro
6080
BREAKING BREAKING RUSSIA RUNS OUT OF LONG EMPTY TABLES. I miss them already.
To be fair, they probably do need an encouraging speech right about now. And retraining.
Great song:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=890z0skXQzI&feature=youtu.be&bpctr=1646488861
Also, it’s been flagged as offensive. I’m guessing Russians don’t like it…
Historically, Ukrainians praising Turkish anything is an improbable event, no?
KevinC
6084
The fact his Twitter page has a banner with him and Tucker Carlson is what made me give the guy the side eye.
This makes me think that the clamoring for a no-fly-zone is really not very much in synch with the situation on the ground and in the air, even if you ignore the larger strategic danger of a no-fly-zone. The Ukrainians don’t seem to need a no-fly-zone as much as they need air strikes on the artillery shelling their cities. They’re doing a decent enough job themselves of limiting Russian control of the air and thereby limiting Russian attempts to use the air effectively to strike ground targets.
Aceris
6086
It’s almost like Russian propaganda outfits are intricately connected with the US far-right movement somehow.
Analysis has some merits - but the map shown is wrong, and ignores the reality on the ground. There are multiple campaigns occurring - North, East, and South (from UA perspective). The Russians are making steady progress in the south (except that weather conditions have postpones seaborn invasion of Odessa at least 3-4 days), are stalemated in the east, and then there is the north.
In the north there is a column of units that bypassed some Ukrainian cities, and is maneuvering to attack Kyiv to the east. That is a success. BUT - the HUGE invasion force to the N/W of Kyiv is out of fuel and food (the famed traffic jam) and is being actively pushed back by UA forces. This can be confirmed by footage showing combat occurring steadily further from Kyiv. It IS possible for the UA to have some spectacular successes against Russia outside of Kyiv and Kharkiv as a result - these are the places where Russian unit annihilations are possible - even while losing ground in other areas.
Looking at what the oil companies are doing with gas prices — profiteering, I would call it — I think it is time for some Democrats in the Senate to propose the Ban Russian Oil and Anti Gas Price Profiteering Emergency Act of 2022. Propose to cap gas prices for an emergency period of time. It can’t possibly pass, but debating the bill and shouting to the media that American oil companies should be absorbing some of the oil price increases rather than screwing the American people for more profits ought to do some good with public opinion. Everyone hates oil companies.
This is a great idea (from my vantage point, which is one consisting primarily of equal parts “oil companies are gonna max their profits and fuck everyone else” and “trust Scott”).
Dog sled over the Pole? Or maybe a troika, pursued by wolves?
