Seems like the only thing the Russians don’t consider a declaration of war is invading Ukraine. Maybe we should just do that.
“Oh no, Russia, please don’t attack us. You’re so scary with your third world military.”.
Seriously though, a lot of analysts are speculating that the Russians are so inept that this could turn into some kind of frozen conflict. That would be extremely humiliating for Putin, and at least from where I’m sitting, every day it gets harder to imagine an outcome that won’t be.
I am imagining an afterlife of invaders in a pantheon that stretches back millenia, which includes Genghis Khan, Napoleon, and yes, Hitler…and they’re all looking at Putin from whatever hellish afterlife they inhabit, and they’re all saying “My dude, if anyone should know anything about launching an invasion in February in central Asia, it should be you, the Russian guy…”
Blinken said on CBS that Poland has the green light from the US to provide fighter planes to Ukraine, and that the US discussions with Poland now are about how to backfill those jets. I imagine there is also a lot of talking about how, exactly, to deliver them.
It’s not clear to me that he’s saying “this is going to happen” or he’s saying “it’s really up to Poland.”
Video:
It’s eerie seeing these videos and photos of abandoned Russian AFVs. Reminds me of all the German footage from early in Barbarossa. The Soviets had almost identical problems with maintenance and logistics, and the Wehrmacht soldiers were astonished at the hundreds of T-26, BT-7 and other assorted vehicles lying abandoned on the roads and fields. Putin appears to have recreated the USSR in more ways than he expected.
This is beginning to smack of desperation. Per Putin, the economic sanctions are an act of war. Now even supplying jets is an act of war. What’s next - supplies of Javelins, NLAWs and Stingers? I’m not saying he’s bluffing per se, but it seems that by drawing so many lines that are acts of war, he’s beginning to signal weakness.
I mean, he’s really saying “we thought they would have to be crazy to try it, but the Americans knew they were crazy.”
From my misspent youth reading about WWII, I remember the Rasputitsa basically brought both the German and Soviet armies to a complete halt. Do we have any sense of how whether the true “mud season” has started in Ukraine? We’re seeing trucks foundering in mud, but I’m also seeing lots of snow.
Hah, I like it. I guess a good part of intelligence is figuring out just how crazy your opponent is.
Denmark announcement.
Tweeter is Danish university professor. Link to the story is in this tweet.
vyshka
6368
He also staked his reputation on the claim that Russia wouldn’t invade. I’d ignore anything he posts.
The camera angles in that video may be. drone footage, but the whole thing seems game-enginey.
This sort of thing doesn’t seem to make any sense. If Shell can afford to give its profits away, Shell can simply have lower profits.
Yeah, this is now multiple times this crappile’s tweets have been posted. Maybe time to declare a no-Ehrlich zone?
And said now they have invaded, it is all going according to Russia’s 3-D chess plans.
pyrhic
6372
lol, my first immediate thought was “Man, that is such a shitty and inefficient way to transport weapons. Like, can’t you even box them properly?”
Then i realized it was 'shopped. And THEN i realized it was the onion…
Of course, it doesn’t make sense - to you! It is an irrefutable economic maxim and has been historically proven that by lowering profits we will turn the country into a wasteland of gas shortages - Australia in the late 70s has shown that.
I see multiple reports of a large flight of Russian aircraft taking off in Belarus and heading into Ukraine in the last hour.
Count me in as a part of French Intelligence. I’m sorry about talking down to people about how mad it would be for Russia to invade Ukraine, but turns out sometimes mad man shouting on the street is right.
orald
6376
If folks want to also help out @ooomalley started a thread for links to aid projects.
