6637

This is basically impossible. At those level of loses they would be collapsing.

6638

I agree that odds are still strongly in the favor that eventually Russia “wins” but I see even less ability for them to hold the country now and I just don’t see how Russia ends up with any permanent control over most of the country.

And I think there may be an actual difference this time in response to “Russia always starts out looking terrible” in that I don’t see an economic or morale swell to really fix that this time around. They are the aggressors so you can’t lean on defense of the motherland. They still have tons of equipment and manpower left to throw at this, but it may be a slog the whole way.

6639

Remember how we were all convinced that Trump, was crazy after the election. He is still behaving the same way. I have a simple explanation if Trump, had done the normal thing and graciously conceded to Biden, Jan 6th had happened. Trump, would another Al Gore, John Kerry or Mitt Romney pretty much forgotten, until the did something newsworthy like Mitt.

Instead not only is Trump the leading candidate for the Republicans, but the dude has raised hundreds of million of dollars.

There is lots of benefit for Putin to come off as crazy, and paranoid, and virtually no downside, since there isn’t a 25th Amendment in Russia.

6640

But will Russia go for it, is the problem.

6641

Are we essentially considering a Russian ‘win’ taking Kyiv?

6642

I doubt it, unless that’s what Putin uses to declare victory, put a doomed puppet regime in place, and get everyone the fuck out. To me the military “win” state is an end to organized military resistance and the move to full occupation/insurgency. I think the only way the take Kyiv == Victory thing would have been valid was in a world where the Ukrainian army collapsed in the first couple of days and the government with it.

6643

What would you call what we’ve seen in the north? Russia has entire units that have been basically eliminated - so its not like 25% of all units are dead or wounded - its more like for certain units they are 100% dead or wounded, and for many others - perhaps the majority, they are still in OK shape.

6644

I’m also coming around to the notion that for Russia to takeover and hold the country, they are essentially going to have to destroy it… and they won’t have the money to rebuild it so it will be another anchor for their economy

6645

Yep, they got a second General (a 2-star equivalent I think):

(amazing thread with implications for RU OPSEC -or lack of it-)

6646

I have to imagine that Ukraine would really love some Paladin SP artillery. I think they can outrange Russian 152 MM howitzer and be great for counter-battery missions.

6647

While a military ‘victory’ is inevitable if Russia just keeps going, it’s impossible to see how any kind of military victory at this point achieves Russia’s political goals without crippling their capability and economy.

6648

It certainly not looking good for Russia right now. But the Russian have a long history of crushing out the opposition, in brutal but effective ways. It is much too early to declare victory for Ukraine.

6649

I was thinking a bit about this earlier today(not specifically with regards to SP arty) that since the Russians appear to be primarily stuck to main roads there are probably a ton of opportunities to flank them with indirect fire and get the launchers out of the way before the Russians can return fire.

6650

History will remember him as Vladimir Pyrrhus of Rus.

6651

If you are a flag officer in this current situation you are better off going up to the front with your entourage, gold bars and stars, and get shot a hero than what is waiting for you at home.

6652

You are not kidding.

6653

While this is true, if Russia want to turn this into a drawn out brutal slugfest they need to basically redeploy their entire force for a conventional advance rather than this half-arsed inverse deep battle bullshit which seems to be centered around exposing their own operational depth to the enemy.

6654

The Russian victory condition is a pro-Russian government in Kyiv, along with structural changes in the Ukrainian constitution that would guarantee the continuation of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv. They aren’t interested in neutrality or even territorial concessions if that means the continuation of a Western-oriented government. There is basically no basis for a negotiated agreement with the Zelensky government.

I think at this point Putin has written off ties to the West and would be happy to get to the point where there is a government-in-exile and a Western-backed insurgency. He will label the insurgents terrorists to build support at home and start killing Ukrainian-speakers en masse until the insurgency is crushed.

6655

For perspective, the US only lost two, 2-star Generals to enemy fire in all of World War 2…

6656

Cowards jk