Miramon
1599
The question is does Putin think there’s anyone in the world who actually believes these deranged speeches, in the Kremlin, in Lubyanka, anywhere at all?
I read an admittedly totally biased anti-Russia article the other day that claimed opinion polls in Russia had swung dramatically from strongly anti-US over to pro-US during the last year. Hard to believe, honestly, but if even somewhat true could be motivating some of this bizarre ranting.
Miramon
1600
Oh yeah, I also read (separate source) the unattested claim that 1% of adults in Russia were “excess mortality” last year, presumably dying of Covid. If true, could also be motivating anti-Putin sentiment. But 1.5 million dead to the disease in a year seems like a lot.
jpinard
1601
Yes that is true. A lot of people died, and it’s going to get so much worse since no one is getting vaccinated there. I feel like they’ve maxed out who will actually take the vaccine.
ShivaX
1602
Alperovitch’s thread is pretty long.
KevinC
1603
The thread might be long but I found it interesting. I don’t know enough about the region to know if he’s right or not, but he explains each of his positions well.
Sharpe
1604
What’s the summary of his analysis?
The level of mobilisation on the Ukrainian border is too expensive to maintain for long, meanwhile Russian diplomacy consists of a mixture of escalation and proposals for “negotiation” that are so implausible that they must intend for them to be rejected.
Djscman
1609
Maybe that guy should stay away from windows for the next few months.
vyshka
1610
Considering the reports were something like 120k on the region, drawing down 10k doesn’t seem like much
Eh, time will tell. The odds are certainly against any actual invasion; there simply isn’t enough of an upside, and way too much potential for things going pear-shaped. Doesn’t mean it could not happen, but historically the safe money has been on lots of smoke, not so much fire.
I did see one website talking about Jan. 6th being Orthodox Christmas, and other parameters that pointed to an early January invasion, but that site turned out to be something from the Heritage Foundation, so, yeah.
Maybe he’s really going to annex the Sudetenland!
What a surprise, what a victory, the Madman theory still works to steal the spotlight!
Meanwhile a funny fact: 20 boats of Russian oligarchs cost more than the whole Russian navy. To your surprise, these boats are not stationed in Vladivostok or Murmansk or even Sochi. People who control Russia prefer to spend time elsewhere.
jpinard
1615
Really? Wow. Where did you get that info?
ShivaX
1616
Presumably surface fleet? Russian subs have always been pretty good and fairly expensive.
