And I’m agreein’ with ya!
Another news blurb on fears about Russia and Ukraine. Not much there other than it claims American officials are pessimistic about the chances that Russia will back off, though it does not provide much evidence one way or another.
There was also some report, can’t find it any more, about Russian special forces in Belarus, but that could well be alarmist misreadings of normal military cooperation or training. I mean, the US has specops in Ukraine as part of training missions I think.
Since the last time I’ve checked Russia moved to 11th place in terms of economic power. Seems will be on 12th place soon. Now it’s below Brazil and Canada.
It’s cool that a country like that can instill fear in the most powerful alliance in history.
Dejin
1701
It is shocking how a country with the GDP the size of Canada can cause so many problems. Throwing the election to Trump by trolling seems likely to have been pretty cheap. But overall, the sorts of activities Putin seems to be pushing, don’t seem like a very good strategy for the long-term economic health of country.
I’d certainly bet on Canada long-term over Russia unless they dump Putin. Brazil seems to have Russia-level governance problems though.
RichVR
1703
They have 6257 nuclear weapons. Not sure how many ICBMs.
True enough. Though, economic power is only relevant in the long term. In the short term, military power on hand is far more significant, but only in the short term. Look at Japan in 1941. Economically, it was clear to everyone that Japan had zero chance against the United States, much less the USA plus allies. In the short term, though, Japan managed to raise a lot of hell in the Pacific until brought to heel.
Luckily, the world today is a different place, so it’s much less likely that a nation like Russia would go that route, knowing the ultimate consequences, but weirder things have happened.
CraigM
1705
I don’t think fear is the right descriptor, at least not in the sense of a direct (non-nuclear) threat.
More off the US foreign policy interests are nominally against direct conquest and annexation of western aligned nations.
It isn’t that the US is afraid of Russia , it is concerned what Russia could do to the Ukraine. And the cost of preventing that in both time, blood, and treasure.
That’s the problem with this sort of instability on the world stage, you can’t predict what will happen very well, and not all of the actors are what one might call rational. It was irrational for the Japanese, bogged down in one war in Asia, to start another one against the potentially the world’s greatest industrial power. It was not rational for Germany to declare war on the USA after Pearl Harbor, when they didn’t need to. Arguably, deciding to invade Kuwait in 1990 wasn’t exactly a well-considered, logical move by Saddam either, had he thought it through.
The single most effective justification for such high levels of military preparedness as the USA maintains is precisely this sort of irrational behavior. The Ukraine situation isn’t one that is likely to engage American power directly, but it follows a similar pattern. Everyone knows that in the long term Russia is not going to be well served by invading Ukraine, but that sort of long-term thinking isn’t the norm. While I think it’s unlikely there will be any overt invasion scenario any time soon, the possibility is definitely there.
Seems the proper course is pretty much what we are doing. Publicly admonishing Moscow’s saber-rattling, working quietly to support Kiev as we can, and working the diplomatic angles for a longer term resolution. Not sure any of it will work, but in these sorts of cases, there are few better options IMO. Bellicosity of our own doesn’t seem to be a winning strategy either.
But this was the story of the USSR for decades. “Upper Volta with rockets”, as the joke went.
It’s really not relevant to their ability to cause short-term damage, or to start something that escalates to the point where everyone loses.
From what I’ve seen of Russian rhetoric - including Putin’s - it becomes increasingly hard to be confident in any fundamental rationality behind the decision-making. Certainly I (admittedly just this guy who follows the news, sometimes) wonder whether Russian government is so corrupted that the Kremlin is o longer operating with information that’s based on anything like reality.
jpinard
1708
It’s absolutely mind blowing a country could have the vast natural resources, massive available space, and large population Russia has, and not be the 3rd or 4th largest economy in the world. You’ve got to really suck to keep dropping in relative economic power with all those gifts.
Russian elites are all extracting the wealth and spend it mostly in the West. From the economic standpoint Russia works like a 19th century European colony somewhere in Africa.
Russian people will live worse while this regime stands. Western powers will be happy with this regime exactly because it allows them to have a boogeyman while at the same time keeps potentially great power weak and submissive in economic terms.
That is probably an accurate assessment, sadly enough. If Russia didn’t exist, we’d have to invent it. Of course, it’s a risky plan, because like the tale of the sorcerer’s apprentice, what you conjure cannot always be controlled.
Scotten
1711
I’m no sociologist (and not sure how to word it), but I have a theory that the Russian people want dictators in charge. From the Romanovs to the communists to Putin: there isn’t much free voting or thinking going on for several hundred years.
I would argue that most humans want governments that enforce a desired social order, and are quite willing to accept authoritarian rule in order to get it. For most folks around the world, much of their history has unfolded in the context of autocratic governments which have differed largely in their specific goals and particular methods of gaining and maintaining power. Most revolutions either happen because autocrats turn to brutality and push folks over a line, or because new power centers emerge that drive different assortments of autocrats to seize power.
The western democracies we like to reference are relatively modern developments, and in the century or less they have been more or less fully implemented they have all gone through arcs that seem to be converging back towards some form of authoritarian practice. This includes the USA.
jpinard
1713
Tucker Carlson sure is pushing Russian propaganda hard.
I get why Trump loves Putin, but between the blackmail, his fantasy of being a tough guy dictator ala Putin, and his hardon for Trump tower Moscow. But it wasn’t that long ago that Tucker was reflexive hard-line anti-commie.
I don’t think it’s the communism that appeals to him. It’s the fascism.
Don’t forget the authoritarianism! (but admittedly that comes with the territory)
Foe those guys, Putin personifies the image they want for the USA–“cross me and die” type machismo.
Djscman
1718
The “call of the void”, but for thee, and assisted by some burly friends of mine if necessary.
