I mean, if you look at it from pure Bismarckian or realpolitik perspective, I suppose, it makes sense. Viewing nations like pieces on a game board, you have smaller pieces like Germany and its neighbors, a bigger piece like Russia, and a big piece all of them fear in China. Makes sense to combine those pieces into a common front. Of course, the world is a much more complex place than a game board, not to mention that this officer seems to have forgotten that in post-WWII Germany, the civilian leadership calls the shots, not the guys in uniforms or party arm bands.
And the bit about respect, as dumb as it is to say it that way, it isn’t totally out of left field. I venture that psychologically Putin, and maybe many Russians in general, do have a chip on their shoulder and feel, like Rodney Dangerfield, that they don’t get no respect. Germany of course was in the same position before WWI, and we saw how that turned out. This guy may well be unconsciously thinking that if only the Kaiser had gotten respect from the West, we wouldn’t have had that bit of unpleasantness between 1914 and 1918. Of course, saying it the way this officer did was neither helpful nor realistic. You can’t give respect to a country or a leader that consistently demonstrates its own lack of respect for things like, oh, borders, sovereignty, international agreements, and all that.
Whether or not one also wishes to extend this thinking to the USA and how folks should treat it is up to you, but that’s a different bowl off borscht.
CraigM
1760
If only Uncle Edward had been nicer to poor little Willie about his toy ships…
jpinard
1761
Convincing Russia to align against China is ridiculous. Would never happen since China is a safe bet for Russia economically.
As I said, neither justified nor realistic. But rational, if you grant the assumptions. I suspect there is also a lot of wishful thinking going on too. I would gather there is very little support for armed confrontations of any sort in Germany right now, so imagining a benign Russia led by a stern but fair Putin makes for a reassuring fantasy.
I only just saw this thread, so sorry if this has already been done to death, but here’s a depressing Twitter thread for the topic: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1485241734925897728
TLDR is that Putin invades this winter and it’s a shitshow, but maybe he gets what he wants.
I think you can recycle all the predictions and analytics from the last year.
I remember a very similar twitter thread to the one you’ve posted a year ago, but I can’t find it quickly. Don’t discrad that link of yours, you may need it next year and the year after that and on other occasions when it’s obvious Russia is going to attack in a few days.
abrandt
1765
If you’re referring to my article from The War Zone we apparently read different things. I just read through it again and nowhere did it predict a Russian attack in a matter of days or even at all. It largely gave information about troop movements/build-up with some quotes from US officials and a whole lot of “it’s unclear what Russia’s intentions are”.
I appreciate a lot of the information and insight you can provide on this topic, but get frustrated that half the time you approach it in a very condescending/mocking way that makes you come across like one of the Russian trolls that frequent the comment sections of stories like the one I posted.
The article may be thoughtful and true, but the title is clickbait promising imminent crisis. If you scroll to messages I’m tweeting you’ll see people being sure the invasion is round the corner.
I’m sorry if I sound condescending. I’ll try to do something about it. I’m tired of clickbait alarmism and crying wolf working so well.
CraigM
1767
Which is totally fair!
Unfortunately nobody ever gets called to task for predicting a worst case that never comes true, at least not like missing that would. If Russia actually did invade and there was no discussion of it in advance, they would lose credibility for many.
KevinC
1768
You’re in good company, my friend.
abrandt
1769
This is a completely understandable point and you’re right that the headline is more alarmist than the actual article. I’d love clickbaity headlines to go away across the board as they are just the default for any headline these days.
While all sorts off things are possible I suppose, one would suspect that if Russia was actually going to invade someplace, they would rather it happen as something of a surprise. “The invasion will not be on Twitter” or something.
According to the Twitter thread I posted, a big part of the motivation for invading Ukraine is to prevent other former Soviet states from getting any closer to NATO or the EU. In that case, I think that telegraphing the invasion and “your friends in the west couldn’t help Ukraine even as we moved all these tanks up to the border” is part of the, uh, argument Putin is making.
Among other things, full-scale invasion from several sides is not Russian MO. They’re very ashamed of Georgian operation in 2008 which was a disorganized mess. Crimean annexation was clean and neat, with no casualties (at least no obvious ones). And that was a very limited operation by special forces backed by local support. In Syria, there were very few boots on the ground and losses. Russian government really, really doesn’t want to send police to pacify protests by crying widows and mothers. They want clean victory with happy locals accepting the new rule and no losses, because Russian people are very disillusioned in geopolitical ambitions.
Doesn’t mean they won’t do it. But if they want a cheap popularity boost (which was the main result of Crimean annexation, it took 6-7 years for Russian people to go back to pre-annexation level of support of the government) they can always annex Donetsk and Lugansk or even Belarus.
abrandt
1773
I’ve always kind of figured that the Russian majority areas in Ukraine that are controlled by Russian-backed forces are the thing Russia would be most likely to go after. Attempting full annexation of Ukraine seems like a recipe for a protracted occupation disaster.
Aceris
1774
The counterargument is that they want to get a feel for what the consequences of the invasion are likely to be. Putin gets something he wants by putting the troops there, and also gains more information about likely responses, which may then lead to him ordering an invasion, or not. (And I’m leaning towards not actually being much more likely, although they might create a pretext and grab the disputed areas).
This is great insight, thanks.
It has been the MO in the past. Crimea is like a nice exception to the rule.
As I said, lots off things are possible. My crystal ball is in the shop, though, so you’re on your own.
jpinard
1777
Why don’t they do this shit in their own waters? This is the Irish economic exclusionary zone. Throwing missiles into that area is pretty dickish.
NATO no longer exists prove me wrong dot jpg
