Sometimes I think that people forget this because of the Cold War, where we made Russia into “them” and therefore they had to be “not us”, and the meaning of “European” was pushed to just western Europe. But of course Russia has been part of European culture for centuries, having especially strong ties to France for a while, and so on.
And then of course there’s the “no true Scotsman” bit where (much of) Russia is, of course, literally in Europe, so by definition people born in Moscow and St Petersburg are European.
I was thinking the build-up was coming in April, and the actual invasion would come in late May.
Barbarosa was supposed to be launched June 1st.
Hmm, maybe they’ve seen that movie too.
I guess I’m not following…why would the Russians be that interested in that conversation between Biden and the Ukrainian leader? I can’t imagine they said anything that would change whatever decisions the Kremlin might be making.
ShivaX
1825
Because the biggest question for Russia right now is likely: “What are the US and Ukraine planning to do in response to what we do?”
Which is exactly what Biden and Zelensky were talking about on that call.
It’s high level actionable intelligence.
I guess, but there is like a 99% chance it isn’t “actually oppose the Russians if they invade.” I mean, the chances of the US coming to blows with them is about nil.
ShivaX
1827
Opposition can exist in many forms beyond direct military conflict.
The entire Cold War was that sort of thing.
Well, yeah, but there doesn’t seem to be much mystery about what the USA might do, at least, not at the level that would affect a decision to invade or not invade. I’m not disputing that Moscow would like to know what was said, of course. Just thinking that such a lack of knowledge is not likely to play much of a role in deciding what the Kremlin does here.
If I had to guess, I’d bet on there being no invasion, Putin declaring some sort of diplomatic victory, and the troops returning to barracks with a party line of “mission accomplished.” Of course, I could also be dead wrong, but invasion seems to be a dumb move overall.
Timex
1829
Autocrats do dumb things all the time.
ShivaX
1830
Invasion always seems like a bad idea until it works.
So far it’s worked out for him every time he’s done it.
jpinard
1832
It is surprising, and nice. But I just realized it seems like Turkey has had military involvement in nearly every conflict that’s occurred within a 600 mile radius of them.
True enough, though Putin is sort of the cream of the autocrats and you might expect him to be a tad more aware of things. But then, maybe not.
I think the key question is defining what “works” means to the Kremlin. That to me is the big variable. From an outside perspective, they seem to have or be able to get without a war what many would think they would want, but perhaps internally what they would call “works” necessitates actual physical conflict and occupation. Every time you go to the well with this sort of thing your risk escalates; even the meekest doves can eventually turn into desperate hawks.
jpinard
1834
Do you think our military leaders realize this is probably the main hit? If so, will be able to somehow stop Russian subs from tapping or sabotaging the lines?
I’m worried about that as well. Maddow has been covering it for a few days, now.
I gotta believe NATO is aware and taking appropriate steps…
Apparently if someone wants to mess with cables, and has the deep-see capability to do so (which the Russians do) there is not much you can do about it. Unless you are pre-emptively willing to sink ships, which is, ahem, a non-starter, by the time you realize something is wrong it will be hard to prove who is at fault I’m guessing. Not sure what the Russians would gain from such vandalism, as I rather doubt military traffic relevant to the Ukraine situation would be affected much. Unless they were having flashbacks to the Cold War and were going to attack all of NATO for old times’ sake, or something.
I guess though they could muck with it and claim it was an accident or that they didn’t do it, and there probably would be no proof anyone would be willing to share for fear off revealing classified capabilities. And then I guess they Russians could use that as a further way of terrorizing the Germans et al into more subservience. Or something. Who knows?
Timex
1837
Some info about this.
Part of the reason why they would do this, is that the disruption caused would be felt much more by western countries than Russia.
Houngan
1838
The internet isn’t a bunch of trucks, it’s a series of tubes, bud. I can’t really recall that thing the senator or whoever said, but yeah, undersea cables are pretty damned crucial. If you think that satellites have replaced them then you are playing Farmville rather than an FPS. Russia and the US understand it more than any others, China’s submersible fleet is still a bit behind but I would assume catching up or caught up. ln as much as the internet matters it’s pretty trivial for the superpowers to destroy it on a global scale.
