So Tuesday in Russia, they announced this:

Monday in the US, but at a time when it was also Tuesday morning in Moscow, this fire started:

Probably pure coincidence, but it was enough of one to make me pause for a second.

WASHINGTON — The United States has acquired intelligence about a Russian plan to fabricate a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine using a faked video that would build on recent disinformation campaigns, according to senior administration officials and others briefed on the material.

The plan — which the United States hopes to spoil by making public — involves staging and filming a fabricated attack by the Ukrainian military either on Russian territory or against Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine.

Russia, the officials said, intended to use the video to accuse Ukraine of genocide against Russian-speaking people. It would then use the outrage over the video to justify an attack or have separatist leaders in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine invite a Russian intervention.

Officials would not release any direct evidence of the Russian plan or how they learned of it, saying to do so would compromise their sources and methods. But both a recent Russian disinformation campaign focused on false accusations of genocide and the recent political actions being taken in the Russian parliament to recognize breakaway governments in Ukraine lent credence to the intelligence.

They just keep wagging that dog.

By publicizing this thing, assuming it is real, they may prevent the Russians from using it, but all the Russians have to do is…nothing, and it then looks like the US is making shit up. They can’t release the proof, but they’re asking people to believe them. I’m not sure what the best play would be here, really.

U.S. did the smartest thing possible. Don’t forget the FSB apartment bombings.

Russian government involvement theory

According to David Satter, Yuri Felshtinsky, Alexander Litvinenko, Vladimir Pribylovsky and Boris Kagarlitsky, the bombings were a successful coup d’état coordinated by the Russian state security services to win public support for a new full-scale war in Chechnya and to bring Putin to power.[200][18][19][20][62][201][21][202][203] Some of them described the bombings as typical “active measures” practised by the KGB in the past. The war in Chechnya boosted Prime Minister and former FSB Director Vladimir Putin’s popularity, and brought the pro-war Unity Party to the State Duma and Putin to the presidency within a few months.

David Satter stated, during his testimony in the United States House of Representatives, that:

With Yeltsin and his family facing possible criminal prosecution, however, a plan was put into motion to put in place a successor who would guarantee that Yeltsin and his family would be safe from prosecution and the criminal division of property in the country would not be subject to reexamination. For “Operation Successor” to succeed, however, it was necessary to have a massive provocation. In my view, this provocation was the bombing in September 1999 of the apartment building bombings in Moscow, Buinaksk, and Volgodonsk. In the aftermath of these attacks, which claimed 300 lives, a new war was launched against Chechnya. Putin, the newly appointed prime minister who was put in charge of that war, achieved overnight popularity. Yeltsin resigned early. Putin was elected president and his first act was to guarantee Yeltsin immunity from prosecution.[204]

According to a reconstruction of the events by Felshtinsky and Pribylovsky:[205]

  • The bombings in Buynaksk were carried out by a team of twelve GRU officers who were sent to Dagestan and supervised by the head of GRU’s 14th Directorate General Kostechenko. That version was partly based on a testimony by Aleksey Galkin. The bombing in Buynaksk was conducted by the GRU to avoid an “interagency conflict between the FSB and the Ministry of Defense”.
  • In Moscow, Volgodonsk and Ryazan, the attacks were organized by the FSB through a chain of command that included director of the counter-terrorism department General German Ugryumov, FSB operatives Maxim Lazovsky, Vladimir Romanovich, Ramazan Dyshekov and others. Achemez Gochiyayev, Tatyana Korolyeva, and Alexander Karmishin rented warehouses that received shipments of hexogen disguised as sugar and did not know that the explosives were delivered.
  • Adam Dekkushev, Krymshamkhalov, and Timur Batchayev were recruited by FSB agents who presented themselves as “Chechen separatists” to deliver explosives to Volgodonsk and Moscow.
  • Names and the fate of FSB agents who planted the bomb in the city of Ryazan remain unknown.

Support

Historians, journalists and politicians

The view about the bombings being organized and perpetrated by Russian state security services was originally put forward by investigative journalist David Satter and historians Yuri Felshtinsky and Vladimir Pribylovsky, in co-authorship with Alexander Litvinenko. It was later supported by a number of historians. Amy Knight, a historian of the KGB, wrote that it was “abundantly clear” that the FSB was responsible for carrying out the attacks and that Vladimir Putin’s “guilt seems clear,” since it was inconceivable that the FSB would have done so without the sanction of Putin, the agency’s former director and by then Prime Minister of Russia.[16][206] In her book Putin’s Kleptocracy , historian Karen Dawisha summarized evidence related to the bombings and concluded that “to blow up your own innocent and sleeping people in your capital city is an action almost unthinkable. Yet the evidence that the FSB was at least involved in planting a bomb in Ryazan is incontrovertible.”[207] According to Timothy Snyder, “it seemed possible” that the perpetrators of the apartment bombings were FSB officers.[208] David Satter considered the bombings as a political provocation by the Russian secret services that was similar to the burning of the Reichstag.[209]

This view has been also supported by investigative journalists. In 2008, British journalist Edward Lucas concluded in his book The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and the Threat to the West that “The weight of evidence so far supports the grimmest interpretation: that the attacks were a ruthlessly planned stunt to create a climate of panic and fear in which Putin would quickly become the country’s indisputable leader, as indeed he did.”[74] In the September 2009 issue of GQ , veteran war correspondent Scott Anderson wrote about on Putin’s role in the Russian apartment bombings, based in part on his interviews with Mikhail Trepashkin[210] The journal owner, Condé Nast, then took extreme measures to prevent an article by Anderson from appearing in the Russian media, both physically and in translation.[211]

Former Russian State Security Council chief Alexandr Lebed in his 29 September 1999 interview with Le Figaro said he was almost convinced that the government organised the terrorist acts.[212][213][214] Andrei Illarionov, a former key economic adviser to the Russian president, said that FSB involvement “is not a theory, it is a fact. There is no other element that could have organized the bombings except for the FSB.”[215] Later Lebed’s public relations staff claimed that he was quoted out of the context.[212]

Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer noted that “The FSB accused Khattab and Gochiyaev, but oddly they did not point the finger at Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov’s regime, which is what the war was launched against.”[216]

A number of US politicians commented that they consider credible the allegations about Russian state security services as the actual organizers of the bombings. In 2003, U.S. senator John McCain said that “It was during Mr. Putin’s tenure as Prime Minister in 1999 that he launched the Second Chechen War following the Moscow apartment bombings. There remain credible allegations that Russia’s FSB had a hand in carrying out these attacks. Mr. Putin ascended to the presidency in 2000 by pointing a finger at the Chechens for committing these crimes, launching a new military campaign in Chechnya, and riding a frenzy of public anger into office.”[202]

On 11 January 2017, senator Marco Rubio raised the issue of the 1999 bombings during the confirmation hearings for Rex Tillerson.[217] According to senator Rubio, “there’s [an] incredible body of reporting, open source and other, that this was all—all those bombings were part of a black flag operation on the part of the FSB.”[96] On 10 January 2018, senator Ben Cardin of the United States Senate Foreign Relations Committee released a report entitled “Putin’s Asymmetric Assault on Democracy in Russia and Europe: Implications for U.S. National Security”.[96] According to the report, “no credible evidence has been presented by the Russian authorities linking Chechen terrorists, or anyone else, to the Moscow bombings.”

According to Satter, all four bombings that occurred had a similar “signature” which indicated that the explosives had been carefully prepared, a mark of skilled specialists. There is also no explanation as to how the terrorists were able to obtain tons of hexogen explosive and transport it to various locations in Russia; hexogen is produced in one plant in Perm Oblast for which the central FSB is responsible for the security. The culprits would also have needed to organise nine explosions (the four that occurred and the five attempted bombings reported by the authorities) in different cities in a two-week period. Satter’s estimate for the time required for target plan development, site visits, explosives preparation, renting space at the sites and transporting explosives to the sites was four to four and a half months.[99]

I have no doubt Putin is capable of a false flag operation. I’m just wondering whether the release of a priori accusations without evidence is going to help or hinder opposition to Russian plans.

It will make it so Russia can’t execute that plan, which they had invested effort and resources into planning.

Some information about what might motivate Putin to start a war.

One thing that I have not seen anyone really talk about, but which I suspect will in fact occur if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, is this:

Putin will release a ton of information about how Trump and other active members of the government worked with the Russians.

When that happens, it will paralyze America for some non trivial amount of time. There will be anarchy, as the country tears itself up. It won’t be all the Republicans, but it’ll be assume of them, including Trump… Some folks in the GOP will say the information is false… Some will turn on those members. Some will coalesce around trump and the members of government who were owned by the Russians. It’ll be crazy.

And really that’s all Putin needs… Just craziness and anarchy. Because by the time it dies down, he’ll have been in Ukraine for long enough that no one is going to take care anymore.

Russia has this huge Trump card in that they own a bunch of traitors in the American government, and when they play it, shit is going to go crazy.

IMHO invading the Ukraine, bad. Very bad. OTOH Putin outing Trump and the MAGAts. Priceless. You see paralysis. I see comeuppance. Would this be worse than Trump in 2024? Seriously. It could very well be the death knell for the Republican party.

Possibly. If the plan is real, and not itself some form of disinformation. Maybe exposing it is the right play, sure; at worst, you take one option off the table I guess. I’m a little gun-shy though about believing anything our own military and intel folks say these days, much less the Russians.

Why would Putin burn his contact when Trump could very well win a second term and help him even more?

This is a good read.

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has appealed to the people of his country to stay calm, and to Western politicians and media to stop spreading panic. On social media, residents of Kyiv have been trading advice on preparing for the next war: withdraw cash and convert it to dollars; make copies of key documents and laminate them to protect them from the elements.

All that supposed know-how angered Lena Samoilenko, a thirty-six-year-old cultural activist in Kyiv. Samoilenko grew up in Antratsyt, which is now part of the Russian-occupied east. On January 22nd, she wrote a Facebook post debunking the very idea that one can prepare for war. “When my town was occupied, the banks were the first to get plundered,” she wrote. “Then medications vanished from the drug stores. . . . Then the doctors left. . . . Many people stayed in town then. My mother’s colleague stayed and was killed in her own apartment; they tortured her for a long time, trying to find out where she hid her retirement payments. . . . Some people were killed on the highway. Someone was killed for his car. Many people faced demands for ransom for their family members. The former mayor was tortured and died. Hundreds of people vanished. Their go bags, their laminated documents, and their survival kits did not protect them.”

I met with Samoilenko at my hotel in Kyiv; she lives outside the city with her husband, the poet Anton Polunin, their two children, who are five and six, and a motley group of out-of-town relatives. She described her home as “a displaced people’s house,” too chaotic for a stranger to be invited in. Antratsyt, which Samoilenko left in her twenties, is an economically depressed mining town a mere twenty miles from the border with Russia. After leaving her home town, Samoilenko spent several years living in St. Petersburg; in the fall of 2013, she was attending a film festival in Kyiv when Viktor Yanukovych, the President of Ukraine at the time, backed out of signing an association agreement with the European Union. People gathered in Kyiv’s central square, Maidan Nezalezhnosti, and Samoilenko joined. The protest lasted several months, until February, 2014, when Yanukovych was deposed and fled the country for Russia. More than a hundred people died at the hands of the authorities during the protests of 2013-14, which Ukrainians call the Revolution of Dignity, or simply the Maidan. Russia occupied Crimea in March, 2014, and in April it attacked Ukraine from the east, cutting the Donetsk and Luhansk regions off from the rest of the country.

Antratsyt fell without a battle. “There were never any Ukrainian troops there,” Samoilenko told me. This did not mean that there was no bloodshed: people died at the hands of thugs who declared themselves in charge and claimed to be hunting down real and imaginary opponents, and other thugs who robbed, killed, and marauded. Samoilenko, like thousands of other Ukrainians, started organizing aid to people living under the occupation. For the next three years, she raised money for medication and other essentials to be delivered to Antratsyt by a van; the vehicle would then return with families fleeing the region, most often because their members needed medical treatment. (About a million and a half Ukrainians, former residents of Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, are currently registered as internally displaced persons.) Samoilenko estimates that she has helped fifty people move to Kyiv. It took her some time to persuade her family to leave, but eventually six family members, including Samoilenko’s parents, joined her in Kyiv; she still supports them. (She earns money as a marketing consultant.)

“People can’t imagine what occupation is like,” Samoilenko said. “The scariest thing is when the lights go off everywhere and the hospitals have no power, and their generators don’t work because it turns out they were never maintained. I think the current situation is harder for me because I’ve had that experience of helplessness. But I’m not scared. Fear is what you feel when you don’t know what can happen. But I do.” So, even though Samoilenko knows that it’s impossible to prepare fully for war, she is making preparations. She would like to get her parents and kids out of Kyiv, perhaps buy a house in a remote village on the western edge of Ukraine. She liked one online listing in particular. “It’s way up in the Carpathian Mountains. There is clean water coming from the peak. Plus, it’s so beautiful there, like in ‘The Sound of Music.’ ” The house is cheap—just fifteen thousand dollars. Samoilenko doesn’t have fifteen thousand dollars, but if things get bad she will figure out how to get it.

I don’t think Trump can actually win reelection at this point.

The value to Putin lies in the chaos that will be created when Trump’s political faction finally comes to blows with the rest of American society. Political violence, a paralysis of American government, etc.

You have around, what, 15-20% of American society who are essentially a cultish sleeper cell. Finally hammering in the wedge that separates then from the rest of American society will cause widespread chaos that fucks up the entire western world.

I’m pretty sure that’s coming.

That’s what I said in 2016. But I do hope you’re right.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll continue to do everything in my power to prevent it.

I don’t believe there is any chance this will happen.

We’ll see. To be clear, I don’t think Russia is going to come out themselves and release this data. I think they’ll leak it, as that will cause more chaos.

But if they invade Ukraine, I expect to see that data follow almost immediately.

I hope you are very powerful.

Well, I hear @Timex can take a licking and keep on ticking, at least according to John Cameron Swayze!

Putin getting some moral support from China.

China joins Russia in opposing Nato expansion China joins Russia in opposing Nato expansion - BBC News