I’m not sure we’ve found a better option though for trying to encourage good change from such countries. Embargoes and sanctions haven’t worked out any better to change governments and are guaranteed to keep antagonism high.

I generally agree. I imagine that if we’d tried a different approach with even a country like Iran, they might not now be so willing to sell ballistic missiles to Russia.

Yes, and Germany continues to actively pursue this policy today, even though it has clearly failed.

Indeed they are far more exposed to Chinese economic pressure than they ever were to Russian, so having seen how much power Russia held in Germany pre-war it does mnake you wonder how much power China holds today.

I’m not sure this is true. I think the German government finds itself in a difficult spot. They know the policy has failed, but they can’t easily disentangle their economy from the ties they forged to Russia, and they have an electorate which is unusually loathe to embrace militarism and unhappy about the economic and personal costs of doing it. So they’re naturally inclined to try to find some way to cut the baby in half.

The EU parliament just did that a couple days ago.

The US doesn’t do it because it would make a peace deal a lot harder, and basically be a statement that we insist on regime change in Russia, which would make a nuke more likely.

Some things make more sense if the conscripts which get sent to the front are the ones who are not smart or athletic enough to evade the press gangs.

Wow, I didn’t think Kevlar or steel plates are supposed to be that flexible.

High-density unobtanium

No way for me to tell if this is true. Anybody else seen an explanation?

Astra is the only Russian language site that I’m aware of with eye-witness information. Until contradicted, it is probably the most authoritative account of what happened. Certainly more so than State press releases.

BTW - the astrapress release can be google translated, and is very readable.

Translation

“Lieutenant Colonel Lapin said that Allah is a weakling. An hour and a half later they shot him.”

ASTRA journalists were able to talk to a serviceman who claims to have been wounded during a shooting at a firing range in Soloti, Belgorod Region, and saw what happened with his own eyes. At the moment, the military is in a hospital in the city of Valuyki. ASTRA does not publish the name of the soldier, for his safety. IMPORTANT: At the time of publication, we were unable to independently verify the identity of either the narrator or any of the other individuals in the story.

“It all started with the fact that some of our soldiers — a Dagestani, an Azerbaijani and an Adyghe — said that “this is not our war” and tried to write a report that they did not want to serve anymore. Lieutenant Colonel Andrei Lapin, when he learned this through the company commander, gathered everyone and began to say that “this is a holy war.” Everything happened in the morning at the parade ground, where the formation takes place, the anthem is sung. A conflict began, they began to push, including several people from my company.

And the Tajiks told Lapin in response that a holy war is when the war of Muslims with infidels. Lapin said that “Allah means a coward if he does not allow you to fight for the country to which you swore an oath.” I personally think that this is what hurt the most, the phrase that “Allah is a weakling.” The phrase shocked many people - from those who stood on the parade ground there. Because we also have Muslims among the officers - both Bashkirs and Tatars.

After the formation, the Russians and Muslims continued the conflict, after which everyone dispersed and, it seems, calmed down. And after an hour and a half, somewhere in the afternoon, they sent us all together to the shooting range, and three Tajiks who were in contract service, they deployed their machine guns, they had live ammunition, and shot our commander, Lieutenant Colonel Lapin, he died on place. And opened fire indiscriminately. There were both contract soldiers and mobilized at the training ground. The dead, whom only I saw - 29 people. The 30th is Lieutenant Colonel Lapin. This is not counting the two Tajiks who were killed along with them - 32. I don’t know exactly how many wounded, some have already been delivered by helicopter to Belgorod, some are now in Valuyki with me.

Two or three minutes before the shooting started, we Muslims were told to step aside. I remember that the names of the shooters are: Bikzot - he is a senior sergeant, the other is Anushe, and the third is junior sergeant Ami. I don’t remember his last name, junior sergeant Ami ran away. And Ensign Semyonov killed two of the shooters. Semyonov at that moment was in the room where boxes of cartridges are stored, where they are given to us. He has his own combat pistol, he was not present during the shooting itself, he heard what was happening, went out and shot both Tajiks. He hit Ami in the shoulder, but he managed to escape. He shot the wire, where the fence is, there is not even a fence, but a bent wire, this is the place through which some people went to the city when it was impossible to get through at the checkpoint. There is such an embankment, that is, he, roughly speaking, just stepped over. We were told that he was still on the run, he was not caught.

Specifically, these Tajiks (who opened fire - ed. note) - they were ardent supporters of their faith. They constantly cursed because they were not allowed to pray on time, they were not given a room for prayer, ”said the young man.

lol

Welp. Seems “wokism” like respecting the faiths of your soldiers might actually be a good thing, given the consequences of going the other direction…

It’s weird how Germany draws your ire so, whereas the decades-long money laundering and investment in the UK by Russian oligarchs and others doesn’t seem to, despite it’s trails going deep into the current government. I also fail to see how Germany’s government is particularly more corrupt than pretty much any other government. There is literally no place on earth where you can scratch very deep at the highest levels of power without turning up dirt.

I can certainly agree that Germany’s pacifism and generally insular nature has led to some poor foreign policy decisions, and that it’s politicians need to wake up to their place in the world. But there are reasons why German policy has developed the way it has for seven decades now, and there are a lot of European countries - including most of those shouting the loudest for Germany to react more aggressively now - who would not have been equally thrilled about it if Germany had started building up it’s military-industrial complex 8 years ago.

At the end of the day, I suspect Germany will still be the first Western country to send modern MBTs to Ukraine. Both the CDU, the Greens and the FDP have been strongly vocal about this (and could - if they so wanted - hand him a defeat in Parliament), so I doubt Scholz can hold out for very much longer.

Rand Corporation researcher on EMP effects. TLDR: only high-altitude weapons exploded at 30km and higher are likely to have significant effect. Lower yield weapons detonated below 30km can have an effect, but generally only in the region where other effects (e.g., blast) would have already have devastated the region. So Russia couldn’t, for example, use a nuclear weapon to take out electronics in a single Ukrainian City.

FEMA has come to similar conclusions:

None yet. But was reading an article today detailing some of the many, many stories coming out of the mobilization. Like reports of multiple fatalities at the various training centers - this story is no more incredible than many of those others.

  • Soldiers committing suicide rather than serve in the military. Most prolific is the rapper Ivan Petunin who reportedly jumped from the 11th floor rather than serve in the army. Though given this is Russia and a window was involved, who knows…
  • Mobilized soldiers with HIV, diabetes, psychiatric patients and elderly being mobilized with the expected results: people suffering heart attacks and strokes before they even reach the front…
  • Soldiers having to buy their own equipment.
  • Convicts no longer having a choice whether to stay in prison or serve in the army.
  • The continued hunt for people to mobilize literally everywhere (reports of people being hijacked at train stations, workplaces, pretty much anywhere people gather) suggests a certain level of desperation.

The pics in the tweet below allegedly shows recruiting officials checking people’s papers at transit points in major cities.

One key difference is that the UK has done everything in its power to help Ukraine. It has opened up its bases to train Ukrainian soldiers and while the US has contributed more, as a percentage of its economy the UK has done more for Ukraine than anyone outside of the Eastern European countries, which admittedly have been heroic. So while UK might not have been doing a great job regarding Russia prior to the start of the war, they’ve at least been doing their best to help Ukraine since February.

In contrast, Germany has done very little for Ukraine. The fact that the Bundeswehr is so hollowed out it isn’t in great shape to protected Germany itself probably isn’t helping. The Swiss blocking German-owned but Swiss-built weapons transfers to Ukraine didn’t help either. But the general impression is that Scholz is doing the minimum he thinks he can get away with. Certainly some members of the government such as Foreign Minister Baerbock are trying their best, but ultimately Germany’s response has been very poor in comparison to much of the rest of Europe. If the Greens were in charge, Germany’s reputation would be in much better shape.

One can only hope.

That’s because he is. But again - a big driver for this is because he’s dealing with an electorate that really isn’t interested in getting involved in the conflict in Ukraine. If public opinion in Germany was a pro-Ukraine as in the rest of Europe, then the German government would also be doing more.

That support probably isn’t going to become internally politically more palatable as prices soar further this winter. Though who knows - more talk about the war will also lead to more talk about why we (Europe) need to support Ukraine, so Putin’s gambit on winter could also backfire, IMO.

The thing that stood out to me were instances earlier in the year where he announced sending a bunch of stuff to Ukraine that wasn’t actually getting sent. I’m not sure why you’d announce a bunch of support like that if you’re worried about the electorates reaction. But I’m quite ignorant of German politics, just seems weird from the outside.

I hope this is true. It seems that it’s always a crapshoot on whether or not activities undertaken to try to ruin civilian morale/resolve will actually hurt it or strengthen it.

I agree. The UK’s tolerance of oligarchy money laundering was awful. Although, money laundering seems to be endemic throughout the world as is greed.

But once the fighting started the UK has been terrific, really only behind Poland and the Baltic States.
Part of that is because the UK, unlike so many NATO countries actually has armed forces capable of fighting a real war. IIRC, German troops in Afghanistan spent almost all their time, train Afgan soldiers and police, proviing medical and logistic support and precious little at a FBO or patrolling, killing the Taliban.

So while is bad that Germany or Holland has provided such small amounts of military aid to Ukraine, it is understandable, there armies are poorly equiped.

However, it is completely unacceptable for Germany’s failure to provide economic aid as promised. I know that Germany is capable of sending wire transfers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/10/15/ukraine-us-europe-funding/

It ain’t important that Germany has pissed off Strollen or @Dejin. But when you piss off Yellen, who is extremely diplomatic, even-termpered, and practically never disses anyone, that’s saying something.