The Russia is getting more evil thread

[schurem]

@TheWombat

The Israeli attacks on the Osirak reactor complex arguably did more to help the Iraqi WMD efforts than hinder them

Wait, say wut?! care to elaborate a bit on that Sir?

@scottagibson

it doesn’t really matter how many Rs would vote for it. Remember, Republican rules in the House are that nothing comes up for a vote unless it has the support of a majority of Republicans in the House. Dem votes are irrelevant to the question of advancing any bill.

Ah geez, you guys really can’t call yourself a function democracy anymore with your institutions in such a godawful shambles of gridlocks and paper tigers.

[ooomalley]

@Grifman

Fascinating look at growth in Western assistance to Ukraine - and why they don’t get everything they ask for or in the amounts they ask for:

Inside the U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine | The New Yorker

Great article, thanks for linking.

This is 2/3 of the way through, but I think a key point, and it’s frustrating that we’ll never know:

U.S. military and intelligence circles have debated the reason that Putin has not yet attempted an escalatory move to discourage further arms shipments on Ukraine’s western border. “As we have gotten deeper into the conflict, we realized we could provide more weapons of greater sophistication and at greater scale without provoking a Russian military response against NATO,” the Defense Department official said. “Was it that we were always too cautious, and we could have been more aggressive all along? Or, had we provided these systems right away, would they have indeed been very escalatory?” The official went on, “In that scenario, Russia was the frog, and we boiled the water slowly, and Russia got used to it.”

Also, high-intensity warfare is really expensive:

Each [HIMARS] launcher costs roughly seven million dollars. According to some calculations, Ukraine could fire more than five thousand GMLRS missiles per month, whereas their manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, was only producing nine thousand a year. “We said straightaway, ‘You’re not going to get very many of these systems,’ ” the Defense Department official said. “ ‘Not because we don’t trust you but because there simply isn’t an unlimited quantity of these on planet Earth.’ ”

Ukraine’s early success changed attitudes in Washington. “The Ukrainians were putting up a good fight, which helped open the floodgates for a lot more military assistance,” the Defense Department official said. Even so, the Biden Administration did not give Kyiv everything it wanted. One wish list circulating around Washington said that Ukraine needed five hundred Javelin missiles per day; at the start of the war, the production of Javelins was only around two thousand per year. Other proposals aired in public by Zelensky and top Ukrainian officials, such as a no-fly zone maintained by nato aircraft and air defenses, were non-starters. “Our interests highly overlap, but they are not identical,” the Defense official said. “When we say things like ‘That is escalatory and could draw nato into the fight,’ they are, like, ‘Yeah, good. How could it get any worse for us? It’s already existential.’ Frankly, if I were them, I’d have the same view.”

The piece also does a good job (briefly) tracing the (short) history of the conflict and how US attitudes loosened over time (with Ukrainian successes) and also the Ukrainians came to trust the US more. Not really fit for quoting into this thread, since there’s a lot of it, but I do recommend reading it. Also, it’s interesting how the relatively recent collapse of Afghanistan might have actually helped the Ukrainians in that it caused the US to be much louder about the threat posed by Russia:

Six months earlier, the Taliban had seized power in Afghanistan within days of the U.S. withdrawal. The Biden Administration had wagered that the U.S.-backed Afghan Army could fight the Taliban to a stalemate over the course of several months. When it came to the Russian threat in Ukraine, U.S. defense and security officials erred on the side of alarmism. “I think in some ways we transposed the Afghan experience onto the Ukrainians,” the senior Defense Department official said.

At least it ends on a positive (ish) note:

Reznikov [the Ukrainian guy responsible for asking for arms from the US; the main subject of the article] is certain that such deliveries [F-16s, MBTs, ATACMS, etc] are inevitable. “When I was in D.C. in November, before the invasion, and asked for Stingers, they told me it was impossible,” he said. “Now it’s possible. When I asked for 155-millimetre guns, the answer was no. HIMARS, no. HARM, no. Now all of that is a yes.” He added, “Therefore, I’m certain that tomorrow there will be tanks and ATACMS and F-16s.”

With the help of the U.S. and NATO, he went on, Ukraine’s military has shown that Russia can be confronted. “We are not afraid of Russia,” he said. “And we are asking our partners in the West to also no longer be afraid.” ♦

Also, god bless the New Yorker for their pretentious umlauts and small caps. Never change, buddy, never change.

[Mark_Weston]

Sanctions + logistics = fun

Russian railway is on the verge of collapse

Bearing cassettes for Russia’s fleet (or at least, it’s modern fleet) of rail carriages were almost 100% produced by three foreign companies who withdrew from Russia after the invasion. They were manufactured in Russia, but 100% reliant on parts from international suppliers. Every bearing failure is now an unrepairable reduction in Russian rail transport capacity.

“Verge of collapse“ is clickbait of course. But someone - whose credentials I have no way to validate - suggested a 40% loss of rail transport capacity over the next 12 - 18 months.

[Woolen_Horde]

@ooomalley

Six months earlier, the Taliban had seized power in Afghanistan within days of the U.S. withdrawal. The Biden Administration had wagered that the U.S.-backed Afghan Army could fight the Taliban to a stalemate over the course of several months. When it came to the Russian threat in Ukraine, U.S. defense and security officials erred on the side of alarmism. “I think in some ways we transposed the Afghan experience onto the Ukrainians,” the senior Defense Department official said.

The primary difference is that there really isn’t (and has never been) a singular Afghan nation or identity, and no one over there is apparently willing to die over it. Whereas Ukraine and its citizens are literally fighting for their survival as a people and culture.

[ooomalley]

Oh yeah, I think in hindsight it’s super easy to point out the (vast!) differences between Afghanistan / the Taliban and Ukraine / Russia. But I can see how being thoroughly and completely wrong in your estimates not too long ago would cause you to err on the other side. Especially when you still think Russia is capable of, you know, accomplishing something.

From the article:

The Ukrainians benefitted from another factor that the U.S. had not considered: Russian hubris and disorganization. Putin had planned the invasion with a small circle of trusted advisers, who settled on a lightning-fast raid to overthrow Zelensky and his cabinet. Ukrainians were finding dress uniforms inside the Russian military vehicles that they captured—the invading forces had thought that within a matter of days they would be marching victorious down the streets of central Kyiv. Instead, they found themselves deep in Ukrainian territory without access to basic necessities like food and water. As the Defense Department official put it, “We presumed they had their shit together, but it turns out they didn’t.”

[Beerbelly_Sneetch]

Malwarebytes says the link you have posted here contains a trojan.

[Tin_Wisdom]

@Woolen_Horde

The primary difference is that there really isn’t (and has never been) a singular Afghan nation or identity, and no one over there is apparently willing to die over it. Whereas Ukraine and its citizens are literally fighting for their survival as a people and culture.

I think the US actually had more early faith in the Ukrainians than most other countries. But it would be easy to make parallels with Afghanistan: A country with little or no nationalist identity, no recent history of a professional military, ostensibly split into squabbling ethnic groups, and with a history of rampant corruption.

The fact that all those things turned out to be false has been wonderful.

I’m really looking forward to seeing the Ukraine that emerges from this crucible. The generation of US workers who rose to the challenge of WWII came back and used the discipline and focus they learned in the war to change the planet. I’m betting that the Ukrainian people will undergo a similar transformation if they get the funding and support to rebuild the country.

[Grifman]

Sounds like their rail system is facing the same problem as their air transport sector. If this is true, then Russia is facing economic collapse.

[Grifman]

Connections:

Damage Control

Matthew Luxmoore

Damage Control

That said, this ancient Assyria level of population deportation. Kherson has a population of over 250k - at least pre-war. We are talking about deporting hundreds of thousands of people.

Also, the Russian reasoning is just an excuse, a lie. The right (north) bank is the higher bank. If there is a flood, it is the south side held by Russia that will flood.

Liveuamap

[KevinC]

It sounds like more kidnapping and forced deportation to me.

[abrandt]

@Grifman

Kherson has a population of over 250k - at least pre-war. We are talking about deporting hundreds of thousands of people.

How are they going to get that many people across the river? Make them swim?

And yes, of course it would totally be Ukraine that would severely damage their own infrastructure and flood their lands totally. Although, based on that topographic map I fully expect the Russians to blow the dam and drown themselves.

[ooomalley]

They have blown a dam before: Ukraine blew up dam to save Kyiv. Village races to drain flood before winter : NPR

edit: which is not to say I think the Ukrainians will do anything of the sort here. Just that they have been willing to damage their own infrastructure. War sucks.

[spiffy]

@abrandt

I fully expect the Russians to blow the dam and drown themselves.

I fully expect Russia to blow the dam to prevent any further Ukraine advances. I’d also expect them to drown 250k civilians and blame Ukraine.

[abrandt]

Important to note that was during the very desperate first phase of the war, not the current phase where Ukraine is trying to retake their country(presumably with as little damage as possible). But point taken.

[aeneas]

I fully expect the Russians to force evacuate the city, blow the dam and use a tactical nuke on whats left.

[vyshka]

For fans of the book Snow Crash maybe the drones would listen to REASON (1.0b7).

[vyshka]

@schurem

Ah geez, you guys really can’t call yourself a function democracy anymore with your institutions in such a godawful shambles of gridlocks and paper tigers.

Yes, sucks to be us :(

[strategy]

@KevinC

It sounds like more kidnapping and forced deportation to me.

More of the same old, same old…

I sometimes feel sorry for the hundreds of thousands of Russian conscripts getting sucked into this war to die in Ukraine against their will, but then Russia always makes sure to remind us of the literally hundred of thousands of defenseless children and civilians whose lives they are responsible for helping destroy.

One of the reasons I don’t think Europe will waver in its overall support of Ukraine - many of us are way too close to this. I’m a lot more worried about the consequences of what the American electorate decides in a few weeks.

[KevinC]

@strategy

I’m a lot more worried about the consequences of what the American electorate decides in a few weeks.

Same. Thankfully there has been strong bipartisan support for Ukraine thus far, but we know Russia had been funneling money to the GOP via the NRA. Add to that Trumps bizarre sycophantic behavior towards Putin and it seems clear (or at least likely) to me that the GOP has been compromised. Who knows what they’ll try to do if they’re in power.

Knowing Republican hypocrisy, they’ll probably cut support for Ukraine and then blame Biden for not providing support and their voters will eat it up.

It’s the main reason I hope Europe and the West can step up. Not because I’m grumpy about the US paying “more than our share” or whatever, but because I’m worried about my country and I want to see Europe in a position to defend themselves and carry the torch, so to speak.

[Strollen]

@schurem

@scottagibson

it doesn’t really matter how many Rs would vote for it. Remember, Republican rules in the House are that nothing comes up for a vote unless it has the support of a majority of Republicans in the House. Dem votes are irrelevant to the question of advancing any bill.

Ah geez, you guys really can’t call yourself a function democracy anymore with your institutions in such a godawful shambles of gridlocks and paper tigers.

Poor Ukraine seems to have mostly two types of allies, ones with a boatload of weapons, and mostly dysfunctional governments (not just US, UK also). Or Allies with fully functioning governments but no weapons. The good news is Biden and the Democrats were in charge the first year of the war.