1919
1920

Dude better stay on the ground floor of buildings and drink Diet Coke instead of tea.

1921

Hmm, while most of the letter seems reasonable, he does seem to think that NATO will defend Ukraine militarily (citing that in an invasion, Russian troops will not only face Ukrainians but military equipment and personnel from NATO countries), which seems odd, since I’ve seen absolutely nothing that suggests NATO will get directly involved. Equipment, yes, that’s already happening. Personnel, not directly. He claims Turkey will invade the Crimea under NATO command. That seems bit much.

1922

Maybe we should provide air cover and say it’s Ukrainians flying and not NATO pilots. You know… like what the Soviet Union did in the Korean and Vietnam wars.

1923

Or NATO troops who are voluntarily in Ukraine with heavy weapons, as tourists.

It’s a lot of Russian lives to put on the line for Putin’s ego, though.

1924

Sometimes one wonders if Putin is sort of waxing nostalgic for the days of the Cold War, and seeing the Ukraine situation as a sort of perhaps unconscious surrogate for the war that never was. His big chance to be part of a great undertaking, whatever. A view his generals, who have to make it all work and live with the consequences, perhaps do not share. After all, those guys more likely realize that they all dodged a bullet by avoiding a full on war with NATO in the 1980s.

1925

I do think Putin is a child of the Soviet empire, and what he actually wants is to restore something like an autocratic / oligarchic Russian empire along the same lines; a second superpower.

1926

Of course he is. He worked for the KGB.

1927

Yes, of course. Forgive my poor phrasing. This part was the ‘I think’ part:

1928

I didn’t mean to be snarky, sorry. Was actually trying to reinforce your point.

1929

His more immediate concern is a neighboring country with a lot of Russian speakers and a media he does not control. Ukrainian democracy is a direct threat to his hold on Russia.

1930

Yeah, me neither. Sorry!

1931

The Ukrainian economy is a big issue indeed.

Belarusian leader for years has promised people an average monthly income of $500 (don’t laugh, a lot of stuff, especially services, is much cheaper in poorer countries, so it’s not the same as your life on $500). Due to dollar inflation today Belarus is farther away from $500 now than it was when it was promised. Up to the last year, Belarus people had better income ever since the fall of the USSR. Last year Ukraine has reached that $500 mark, and today it’s $600. Even people who didn’t like the Belarusian government have always leaned upon the fact that on average Belarusian is better off than an average Ukrainian. Now for some time, it’s no longer true. The average Russian income is $700.

You can probably see where this is going. Russian propaganda heavily leans on Ukrainian political instability and moral decadence, but this isn’t going to work when Ukrainians start living better material lives.

1932

On a related note, though I’m not sure just how it relates, there’s a YouTube channel by some guy in Moscow, I think it’s called Forever Manual. It’s a car channel, focusing on (duh) cars with manual transmissions. I watched one of his English videos on his experiences with a base model Porsche 718 (Cayman). Most of it was shot while he drove around Moscow and the surrounding area in various weather conditions. I’ve also seen a fair number of videos showing driving in other parts of Russia, and the differences are striking. Seeing Moscow, you’d say, wow, this is just like any other modern European city, with a lot of affluent people, etc. Seeing the other videos, you would have a very different experience. It’s more like “holy crap, that’s a European country???”

Now, any country as vast as Russia is going to have a lot of variance across its whole swath, but it sure does seem to an outsider that there is a real gap between certain places and certain groups. Look from one angle, and you see modern, affluent, hip; look from another, you see chaotic, erratic, eroded.

1933

I mean, we can play that game in the US too.

But you want to really see peak disparity, go around New Delhi. Its pretty stark. Fancy high rises and parks blocks from slums with people making shelters from discarded corrugated siding and vinyl posters.

1934

@TheWombat reference to the YouTuber driving around Moscow made me think of something.

I’m not sure there’s any insight into various Russian social groups, but this is my favorite documentary about the wide sweep of Russia and the types of people who live there:

I’m not even joking. It’s alternately hilarious and sobering.

-Tom

1935

The difference between Russian megapolises and the rest of the country is striking and Russians themselves are well aware of it. There’s almost nothing between Moscow or Petersburg and complete wasteland.

1936

Their practice ground is an abandoned, Soviet-era, Young Pioneers children’s camp, whose sagging buildings are being used to practice house-to-house urban combat.

As professional soldiers tutor novices in how to inch forward on their bellies over snow-packed ground, I have the feeling I’m watching a grim reality show. A fully geared soldier in helmet and body armor patiently instructs a woman in a tracksuit holding an ancient rifle held together with string. A barbecue pit smokes in the background, preparing lunch for the volunteers.

But the participants are deadly serious.

“We will fight any invaders like the resistance that fought the Russians in Afghanistan,” insists Vasyl Nikolayevich, a 53-year-old full-time platoon commander in the Territorial Defense Forces, as he rounds up a group of volunteers to practice a rifle attack, twisting to the right and the left, to cover both flanks.

1937

Where were you in Belarus? I think the entirety of my Belarus experience was possibly a train stop in Minsk on the journey back from Lithuania to Moscow. I’d love to make it back that was some day. It’s been about 20 years since I was in Russia, and 25 since I studied in Moscow.

1938

“Sobering,” get it?