The last time I recall seeing a Russian defensive line, it looked much more formidable.
Though it might not have been real, now that I think back.
Gah, that whole “we’re not at war but let’s have our fighter planes “fake intercept” each other” is such a stupid-ass idea.
Dejin
19461
Excerpts from a longer 17-post thread:
Dejin
19463
As far as I know Ukraine is still asking for a media blackout on any information from the area, so all news is coming from Russian sources. No reporting on ground captured by Ukraine.
Mostly it’s just all Russian media sources on Russian TV appear to be making excuses for why they might lose ground. This is taken as a sign that Russia expects to lose Kherson and is preparing Russian citizens to expect it to be lost. Also Russian installed officials in Kherson region are talking about evacuating citizens from the city — also taken as a sign that Russia expects to lose the city, possibly also using citizens as hostages to prevent shelling from Ukrainian forces on Russian units retreating across the river.
I did see one report of fighting within the city from an OSINT account that seemed fairly legitimate (an account that had reasonable followers), but it wasn’t clear if it was partisan or army, and I haven’t seen it reported anywhere else.
schurem
19464
lets do some OSINT ourselves, look at the forest fire satellite:
edit: seems there’s not much firing going on at the moment, but what do I know…
dtolman
19465
If you believe the rumors, Russia is moving its heavy equipment and troops out of Kherson and its positions west of the river, and then will blow up the dam behind them so that Ukrainian forces can’t follow (leaving the city flooded).
Tman
19467
A great in depth interview with Fiona Hill (prominent during the impeachment for providing relevant information on Russia / Ukraine and Rudy the errand boy):
I find the term “deoccupied” that CNN is using in stories from areas liberated by the Ukrainians weird. I mean, retaken, recovered, whatever, but “deoccupied?”
Dejin
19471
Major General Mick Ryan (ret) analysis of the new Russian Commander and what he might do. One key point I thought was particularly interesting was General Ryan points out that the new general was commander of aerospace forces in Syria, and seems to have bought into the idea, which seems ever popular with some air force officers, that a populace can be beaten into submission from the air, which is exactly what he’s trying to do in Ukraine.
Not mentioned by General Ryan, but one thing I found quite odd, according to Wikipedia he started out as an infantry officer serving with the Spetznaz and then as the commander of a Guard Rifle Battalion. But then in 2017 they put him in charge of Aerospace Forces in Syria. Are there any other armed forces that would move someone from ground forces to air forces like that?
Grifman
19472
Ok, here is my totally armchair general plan to breech that new Russian defense line - do to the Russians what the Americans did to the Germans at the beginning of Operation Cobra, the breakout from Normandy. In that attack, the US used hundreds of strategic heavy bombers in a tactical role to bomb the German front line positions, opening a massive hole through which the U.S. troops poured through.
Now the Ukraine doesn’t have an AF capable of this, but they do have HIMARS, and a new “shotgun” style munition which drops tens of thousands of tungsten core “bb’s” on a target. I would mass an attack force of infantry, mobile mechanized troops, mobile AA units, many many drones, and all of my HIMARS. The HIMARS would hit those trenches and blast open a couple of kilometers wide hole. Infantry would advance and seize the trench line while engineers cleared any AT obstacles. While this is happening, the HIMARS are moving and reloading. Then the mechanized forces advance and the area is flooded with drones. The drones and counter battery radar identify any Russian artillery and the reloaded HIMARS hit these. With their infantry dead, artillery destroyed, any Russian tanks would be isolated and destroyed. Use mobile AA and manpads to fend off the Russian AF as best you can and flood into the Russian rear. I’m betting that the Russians don’t have much of a mobile mechanized reserve to respond to such a breakthrough, or at least are incapable of responding in an effective matter if they do. At this point the Russian line collapses as it is outflanked and/or surrounded.
That’s how I would do it.
TimJames
19473
I understand that a guy whose Twitter bio says “defender of experts” and who wrote a book called “The Death of Expertise” is someone who really likes his technocracy. And I acknowledge some of the Twitter takes on this war are too stupid even for me as a contrarian. But this quote telling citizens to be quiet in the face of nuclear war reminds me a lot of how the police tell the public to stop criticizing how they do their job. I think it’s okay for us to voice our concern when the professionals might kill us.
Maybe I’m taking the quote out of context and I know the takes he’s reacting too are terrible. It just sounded really familiar.
Not a piece with deep strategic analysis or anything, but a quick read giving a “day in the life” (if you can call it that) of a drone unit. Nice pictures, too.
Well, he’s nobody in authority, so it isn’t at all like cops trying to shut people up. I think that’s the error you’re making. And if I’d have been around in the late 30s, I would totally have told e.g. Lindbergh to STFU.
TimJames
19476
This is too pedantic for me on a Friday to engage with.
To be clear, it’s perfectly fine to tell any particular individual to shut up. Telling everyone to shut up reads too much like a Facebook post trying to shut down criticism of the police in the summer of 2020. Same energy.
Yes, if you choose to read it that way, ignoring the context of the quote (he’s responding to specific people), then you can decide he’s the problem. I don’t even like the guy, but he’s right here, and you’re wrong. How’s that for pedantic on a Friday?
