I am not in favor of this version of the Terminator reboot.
I’ve been fan of Tom’s and read his stuff in the Altlantic and various Foreign policy mags for many years
Still, he is definitely arrogant and borderline insufferable at times on Twitter during the war. Tom was far more cautious than Kasparov, Vindman, Petraeus, and Hertling, about arming the Ukrainians, and even more cautious than the administration. With the benefit of hindsight, we could have done more, to provide Ukraine with deadlier weapons faster and saved more Ukrainian lives, because Russia wouldn’t have escalated. It is hard to imagine Putin using nukes if we had sent HiMARS on day 15, since we continue to send more and his response is suicide drones and cruise missiles. He’s been using cruise missiles against civilian targets since the beginning of the war. It is clear that Putin is responding mostly to Ukrainian actions, not NATOs.
So I don’t think Tom’s track record as a forecaster of what Putin will do or the war, in general, has been stellar.
I think David Sacks, Elon Musk, and many others who are expressing concern about how this war ends are expressing an understandable fear of starting a nuclear war. I think their views are wrong for multiply reasons.
- They are focused on the short term, if we let Russia blackmail us with the threat, it encourages not only future bad actions by all nuclear powers, but dramatically increases the appeal of obtaining nuclear weapons by dictators.
- I think Biden is right. Putin’s isn’t crazy he just badly miscalculated. Nothing really has changed since that paper on using tactical nuclear weapons in Vietnam was published. There is minimal military advantage for tactical nukes, and massive political costs. So there is no rational reason for Putin to use them. If Putin’s crazy then there isn’t really anything we can do to stop him.
- It is perfectly logical for Putin to threaten to use nukes, there is virtually no cost to him. We aren’t using nukes first. He is already an international pariah, and threaten to use nukes a 3rd is no different than the last two times he made the threat.
Most American see Putin’s saber-rattling as a bluff.
I’m personally, I’m willing to risk a nuclear war with Russia to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty. This isn’t because I’m particularly brave or selfless. I just think the risk of nuclear is near zero based on my studying. I believe I have a better than 50% chance of surviving a nuclear war despite living 12 miles from Pearl Harbor.
However, if you believe the risk of nuclear war is high, and US/USSR nuclear war, will end humanity on the planet, then there is nothing foolish about seeking an end to this war, even if costs Ukraine some territory. Tom could help the situation by being more educational and less snarky
Except you only postpone the inevitable, don’t you? I guess that is preferrable to certain death, but in the end, you are trading a risk of annihilation for the certainty of being held hostage in perpetuity.
Let’s not accord most of these people calling for us to abandon Ukraine in order to avoid a war with Russia any more gravitas or respect than they deserve. Which is pretty much nil. They aren’t concerned with any high moral ground, nor are they concerned about humanity in general. They are simply unwilling to risk their own very comfortable, even opulent, existences for something as intangible as justice, or the rule of law, or a stable international order. If the cost was, say, literally murdering every man, woman, and child in Ukraine, they’d still say the same thing–“let the Russians do it, better than the chance of a nuclear war.”
It’s the result of centuries of American isolationism, which despite the Cold War era still has deep roots in our country. Deep down, we still feel that no one can hurt us, and we don’t have to pay attention to anywhere else because of that security.
You maybe right, but I prefer to give people the benefit of the doubt. It is not just David Sacks and Elon, I see plenty of folks supporting their position who I think are more like aging hippies, war is bad. without understanding the consequences of Ukrainians living under Putin’,or the long-term risks.
It’s the result of centuries of American isolationism, which despite the Cold War era still has deep roots in our country. Deep down, we still feel that no one can hurt us, and we don’t have to pay attention to anywhere else because of that security
There is a strong case, that Americans are ignorant self-absorbed pricks, who have no clue of how interconnected the world is. But how do you square that with Americans contributing more to charity than other country,. We are hard people to figure out.
By far the best interview I’ve seen on the strategic and diplomatic situation, I’ve read in months.
I was impressed with Fiona Hill during the impeachment trials, but now I’m really impressed.
She makes a great case that Putin is using Elon as a messenger aka a useful idiot.
ShivaX
19504
A little bit of each. It’s partially a shot at blue checks on Twitter and partially a shot at Elon Musk.
I think most of the frustration is from Musk and he just hit his bullshit limit.
Also this is literally his area of expertise and having idiots come in with stupid takes has to take a toll on a guy after a while.
Keep in mind Neil deGrasse Tyson recently downplayed nuclear war as well.
Oh it hasn’t been, I think he’s openly admitted as much.
His issue is that ignorant people are doing actual stuff to fuck with things.
Musk being the prime candidate (using Sacks and other people as inspiration/sources). His point is that Musk doesn’t know shit about shit and that the people Musk is pulling from also know nothing.
Kasparov, I’m sure, he would consider an expert in Russia and the Soviet Union. And experts can disagree on stuff, but there is a difference between experts disagreeing and random fuckos disagreeing and then involving themselves directly in things, like say calling Putin personally.
He’s been educational, but so many people are high off smelling their own farts it ends up being pointless. You see it with Kasparov as well. It’s akin to a heckler at a stand up set, at some point you have to make it stop, but they can’t call security, so the make fun of them or insult them.
It’s usually tankies in my experience, which… I give them no benefit of the doubt.
They think it’s a ticket into Heaven in a lot of cases. Like literally if they give some money they get into Heaven and don’t have to do anything else. Also tax breaks. That said a lot of people who don’t buy into that particular heresy do donate a lot.
I don’t think this at all. I think it’s part of a broader political agenda they’re pushing, particularly Sacks and Thiel. They’re not afraid of nuclear war, they’re using other peoples’ fears to manipulate them into supporting politicians and policies that give people like Musk and Sacks and Thiel what they want.
KevinC
19506
That’s where I am with it. If you surrender territory due to the threat, he’s just going to keep making the threat. Just seems like kicking the can down the road but with a bunch of sacrifices along the way.
Not that I’d want to seek out a confrontation. It’s just been forced on us (and Ukraine more specifically) and I don’t think them surrendering territory is going to gain them anything past the very very short term.
Well this seems pretty damn unhelpful on Tom’s part.
Why make it easier for Trump, Putin’s bitch, to get his message out?
CraigM
19508
I admit, I would forgive Putin the use if he shoved it up that dumb bastards ass before detonating.
Once you let Russia know nuclear blackmail works it will never end.
Dejin
19510
I think that’s Nichols running on his other high horse, which is “Trump is an idiot.” I’m kind of doubtful anyone following Nichols is a Trumper, but that’s him saying to any of his followers: “I’ve been saying for years Trump is an idiot, here’s another example.”
Dejin
19511
More from their report linked in the Tweet
Just came to post this!
Curious what the next stage looks like. Russia seems to have stabilized the front and is heavily fortifying in the east.
Do they try to attack again from the North? Negotiate for peace? Spend winter training conscripts and resupplying? Launch a late fall attack somewhere else?
jpinard
19514
Has this been confirmed anywhere?
There’s that, sure. There’s also a case to be made that philanthropy merely replicates and perpetuates a broken system, by alleviating the guilt of the guilty and giving false hope to the oppressed. Charity in America is often used by those in power as an excuse to avoid public sector actions; the support of philanthropy has been a keystone in the GOP’s hostility towards universal health care, affordable housing, and the like. “Let charitable organizations do those things” is quite the mantra.
ShivaX
19517
A lot of people he used to respect/work with still follow him.
He enjoys throwing these moments in their faces.
