abrandt
19598
I think the US talking to Russia directly for the image of it alone is a bad idea. Basically what Timex said. Even if the negotiation isn’t actually going over Ukraine’s head. I’d rather a more neutral party led this kind of discussion with Russia and could represent what guarantees the US would make for respecting whatever agreement.
vyshka
19599
If nothing else it feeds the Russian narrative that this is about us and them.
Timex
19600
There’s also the simpler element of, “fuck negotiating with Russia”.
Like… What exactly is there to negotiate? They invaded a foreign country with zero provocation.
Here are my terms: get the fuck out and go home.
Are we going to allow them to do something else? Especially in the wake of their military getting it’s ass beat? How’s that play out? They invaded a country, their military sucks balls, and then… They get to keep some of that country?
Even if we abandon any semblance of international law, and fall back on might makes right (which, to be clear, in an international setting is not a totally impractical view), Russia is not mighty. They are weak.
abrandt
19601
What was brought up above was guarantees to Russia on sanctions lifting if they get the fuck out and go home. Of course the issue there is that I think Russia and Ukraine have different ideas of where Russia would need to get out from.
Tim_N
19602
I probably agree, but since both are nuclear powers I am just assuming that the two talk to each other in some capacity as a matter of course. If biden were to say “f off and go home, and we will take a look at the sanctions”, I wouldn’t be opposed.
But it does multiple times?
abrandt
19603
I don’t think Biden has talked to Russia or Putin to the US. The Defense Secretary has talked to his counterpart on several occasions. I assume some other high level officials too. So they certainly have lines of communication, but I don’t think you are casually going to come up with guarantees about a peace deal via those channels.
Have you heard about the Death of the Author? It doesn’t matter what is in the text, just how it makes us feel. Ditto with the tweet.
Another way to look at it is Zelenskyy has drawn his line in the sand, saying he refuses to negotiate with Russia while Putin is still in power. I admired the bravado then and I still do now. But there’s a reason that neutral countries sometimes step in and try to mediate to find a path toward peace. That concept doesn’t change because Russia is asshole.
Dealing with a regime that’s been operating on wishful thinking ever since they decided to invade Ukraine, clarity of communication is vital. Like in that joint statement yesterday; three major NATO powers telling Russia that their claims were transparently false and that nobody was buying their crap.
This thoroughly muddies that clear communication. Anyone in Russia looking for factoids to show that their long-term strategy might work, can now cite evidence that Biden’s own party is fracturing and that Russian threats to world energy and food markets will get them what they want. It’s proof of fundamental American weakness, if you’re someone who already believes in American weakness and just needs a shred of evidence to confirm their prejudices.
And for what? There’s zero evidence that right now, Putin will accept any negotiated settlement that is also acceptable to Ukraine. His position has been hardening then hardening again as he repeatedly doubles down. So talking about negotiations now is just wishing for magic and unicorns.
One would hope that at some point Putin will be desperate enough for a way out that an American offer of sanctions relief would sweeten the pill enough to make a difference. But IMO that point is now further away. Because if Putin’s final gamble is that all he has to do is hold on long enough that Western will falters and they make him an offer, then these people have told him that he’s right.
To play devil’s advocate, this message in combination with Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan does kind of make our foreign policy seem a little rudderless. Do we need to tell Congress to shut the fuck up too, or is that just regular citizens?
Heh, just kidding. It’s always a good time for that.
vyshka
19608
I think this is more about public posturing by the people that signed than any real desire to see a policy change. They could’ve either walked down to the White House, or invited him up to the hill, and told him their views. Instead they sent a letter, and handed off a copy to the Washington Post.
I’m really happy to see you all condemn the progressives.
I agree with Aceris.
While AOC, is far from an aging hippie, I have little doubts she would have been a hippie in the 1960s and aging one for the first Gulf War.
This is extraordinarily dangerous for Ukraine. Even if the GOP wins the house, there is a lot of support for Ukraine in the Republican party. McCarthy isn’t Paul Ryan, much less Nancy Pelosi on keeping the members inline. I think Biden will be able to get through most aid packages. But if the Progressive join with rank-file Republican in voting to cut off funding for Ukraine this would be a disaster.
There is a lot of education that needs to be to done to explain to the progressives why there are really wrong, and if necessary hardball politics and arm twisting.
Janster
19611
Usa as a superpower is vital in negotiations here, as they uphold the sanctions and enforce them, so there can be no talks without US involvement, that said, as it stands now, Zelensky cannot declare peace tomorrow, land is occupied, and not enough blood has been shed(no seriously, Ukraine is not done by far) If he was to try now, he will just find himself in trouble with the military quickly.
I see the best outcome for Ukranie would be loss of Crimea permanently in return for peace and return of their other provinces…however, I don’t see that happening either, its a shit show…Russia won’t tolerate a loss…they will double down for now.
There is still the question of the return of thousands of stolen Ukrainian children. It’s not just a territory discussion. Can Russia return them even if they wanted to? If I were on any negotiation table that would be front and center.
In an ideal world this would be a big thing, along with prosecuting Russians for war crimes. It won’t be, though, and prosecutions on any scale other than for folks captured by the AFU won’t happen, either. We have reached a point in history I think where we are so used to atrocity that we can’t be bothered to hold anyone accountable.
Such an attitude is odious but understandable to an extent when dealing with things that are purely internal within the recognized boundaries of sovereign states, as with China’s horrible acts in its western regions. Westphalian nation state sovereignty and all that. When these things happen as part of an illegal and unjustified invasion of another country, though, one would think there would be wide-spread condemnation and desire to go after the perpetrators. But, really, not so much.
I think the problem is that there is rarely, if ever, the means of holding people accountable. Unless you win an unconditional surrender from someone and occupy their country and govern it, you’re not going to have the legal authority over their citizens, nor the means to enforce that authority.
spiffy
19615
I also imagine Russia isn’t interested in bartering for hostages… they probably want those kids – and Ukranians of all stripes-- integrated into their economy. Russia is not a good prospect for immigration (xenophobic attitudes internally, and who in their right mind would choose that as a destination, though we’ll see when climate change starts forcing mass migration), then these people are ideal to shore up the birthrate… white, most Russian speaking already, the perfect demographic. Second best thing to owning Ukraine is owning it’s people, and trashing the rest.
I see Russians have realized that if you accuse Ukraine of something slightly more realistic than genocidal biolabs it stays in the media for a longer time.
