The Russia is getting more evil thread

[ooomalley]

I thought this was a good essay by someone who has been there–30 years ago, in Bosnia:

I had to fight for Bosnia. That’s how I know Ukrainians can win, and they...

[KevinC]

ISW with some info on politicking within the Kremlin, specifically in regards to the rise of Prigozhin (who heads Wagner).

Prigozhin continues to accrue power and is setting up a military structure parallel to the Russian Armed Forces, which may come to pose a threat to Putin’s rule— at least within the information space. Russian milbloggers reported that Prigozhin is sponsoring the formation of a Wagner-based volunteer battalion recruited by a Russian war criminal and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer Igor Girkin.[13] Girkin is an avid critic of the Russian higher military command and a prominent figure among the Russian ultra-nationalists who participated in the annexation of Crimea or the illegal Russian seizures of Ukrainian territory in Donbas in 2014. Milbloggers noted that the structure of the Russian Armed Forces has long prevented Girkin from forming his own volunteer battalion due to lack of supplies and other bureaucratic restrictions, while Prigozhin has the luxury to operate Wagner forces without the direct supervision of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Milbloggers also noted that the Prigozhin-Girkin collaboration is likely making a large nationalist constituency accessible to Prigozhin in support of his maximalist goals for the war in Ukraine.[14]

Prigozhin holds a uniquely advantageous position within the Russian state structure and information space that allows him to expand his constituency in Russia more readily than the disgraced Russian higher military command. Prigozhin can freely promote himself and his forces while criticizing Kremlin officials or the Russian Armed Force without fear of pushback.[15] Putin depends on Wagner forces in Bakhmut and is likely attempting to appease Prigozhin despite the fact that Prigozhin is undermining the conventional Russian military. Prigozhin, for example, sarcastically stated in an interview that he is constructing the “Wagner Line” in an effort to make Russian Armed Forces that “hide behind Wagner’s backs” feel safe.[16] Prigozhin also frequently levies his critiques of the Russian military in interviews with Russian online publications and among Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels, which allow him to reach and interact with audiences inaccessible to the Russian MoD, which is restricted in its public statements and means of communication. Prigozhin also benefits from holding no formal position of responsibility. He is not in command of any axis in Ukraine nor in charge of any major bureaucratic effort. He can critique those who are in positions of authority freely without fear that anyone can point to something he was specifically responsible for that he failed to achieve.

Prigozhin has seemingly distanced himself from a fellow strongman, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, after their joint critiques of the Russian higher military command on October 1 drew much attention.[17] This rhetorical shift may indicate that Kadyrov is losing influence and standing and may fear losing his control over the Republic of Chechnya amid the Chechen public’s growing disapproval of his demands in support of Putin’s war.[18]

[ShivaX]

I feel like if your “mercenary company” works for a single government and is funded by them, they’re not mercenaries.

I get they’re doing it to skirt laws (not that it matters because laws don’t matter in Russia anyway), but it’s weird that Western media calls them mercenaries constantly when they’re not.

Edit: I feel the same way about Blackwater and all PMCs as well when the US does it. Which we shouldn’t.

[TheWombat]

@scottagibson

I thought that, behind the scenes, Kennedy made a deal to quietly remove western missiles aimed at USSR, located in Turkey, in exchange for USSR’s agreement not to put missiles in Cuba. It looked like Kennedy holding firm and USSR backing down, but the reality was more of a bargain than that.

Of course this doesn’t change the larger point, which is that right now, the West’s resolve and commitment to Ukraine is everything.

Indeed, the missiles in Turkey were a quit pro quo. But we didn’t need those missiles, not like the Soviets needed weapons in Cuba. We had lots of places to put weapons near the USSR, in all of those NATO countries around the Soviet Union. They had bupkis, so it was really a win/win. Not to mention that we never went all in on IRBMs anyhow, especially once our SLBM fleet got going.

[TheWombat]

@Mark_Weston

I don’t think any nuclear power has been as close to an existential crisis as Russia is right now (existential for the regime, at least). So my point was, I think it’s pretty reasonable to be concerned. I am.

Oh, no denying that. I’m concerned as well. That doesn’t mean paralyzed with fear, though, just prudently uneasy.

[ddtibbs]

@TheWombat

in all of those NATO countries around the Soviet Union.

/pedantry

Turkey was a member of NATO then and now

/pedantry

[TheWombat]

@ddtibbs

/pedantry

Turkey was a member of NATO then and now

/pedantry

Yeah, of course. My statement was not meant to imply otherwise. Turkey was only one of those countries where missiles could be emplaced. It was (temporarily) valuable because the weapons were very short ranged and from launch sites in Turkey could hit the vulnerable southern part of the USSR I suppose.

[Houngan]

True, though it feels like we used them to skirt our and international law. Russia doesn’t really need black site ops since the atrocities are all the way down.

[Janster]

@abrandt

@Strollen

One thing that Paradox games have taught me, (plus more importantly Russia’s experiences in WWI) is that war exhaustion is a real thing

I worry Putin has been storing away his monarch points in order to keep reducing war exhaustion, though. Thankfully, he kept his army maintenance reduced instead of drilling his troops and increasing his army professionalism. He’s clearly already slackened recruiting standards as low as they’ll go so his options for quickly boosting manpower are pretty much gone. And he clearly doesn’t have the money to hire more mercenaries and his Corruption number is higher than I’ve ever seen and he’s got no money to root it out. Should have focused on building more manufactories in all those fur-producing provinces a few years back when he was bringing in loads of ducats.

I’ve played way too much EU 4, but that was pure awesome.

[triggercut]

With regards to the submitted and then hastily withdrawn letter foofaraw, there’s one thing that I have noticed since even before the start of this war in Ukraine. There are some folks – not a lot, and they seem likely to be a big minority – who are very far leftward on the political spectrum, and who I’ve noticed in the past have championed socialism. Which often is a viewpoint I’m pretty sympathetic to, I’ll add, and which I’ll also mention that in the US it sucks that the term (socialism) has become such a stupid pejorative from the right.

And so I’ve noticed on social media some marginally prominent folks in that space seem to have this weird affinity for Russia. And I wonder why that is.

Is it anti-establishmentism? For example, if the US and NATO are doing a thing, whatever that thing is, the opposite thing must be more virtuous?

Or is it this odd affection for the old Soviet Union? I’ve seen this view and sometimes wondered if it comes from a miscast memory of that state as not an authoritarian government with a secret police and whose people lacked any sort of personal liberty, but instead as this shining socialist beacon undone by insidious capitalism and western imperialism.

And then there’s specific cases, like Max Blumenthal who used to write for mainstream liberal/left publications like Huffington Post, Salon, Washington Monthly, Daily Beast and The Nation, but who appears now to be pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine mostly because the checks from Putin have all cleared. He went to work at RT about 6 years ago, and though he’s no longer there, it seems at least plausible that he may still be on the Kremlin payroll perhaps.

[Mark_Weston]

Russian media asking the important questions. What is political satanism, and how do we defeat it?

Francis Scarr

[KevinC]

@triggercut

Is it anti-establishmentism? For example, if the US and NATO are doing a thing, whatever that thing is, the opposite thing must be more virtuous?

Or is it this odd affection for the old Soviet Union? I’ve seen this view and sometimes wondered if it comes from a miscast memory of that state as not an authoritarian government with a secret police and whose people lacked any sort of personal liberty, but instead as this shining socialist beacon undone by insidious capitalism and western imperialism.

Lost tankies just trying to find their way home.

[KevinC]

@Mark_Weston

What is political satanism, and how do we defeat it?

I’m expecting a Tucker Carlson segment on the same topic by end of the week. :)

[Mark_Asher]

@KevinC

I’m expecting a Tucker Carlson segment on the same topic by end of the week. :)

And I’m expecting a Ben Garrison cartoon of Biden with horns and a pitchfork.

[Janster]

They are commonly refered to as “tankies” these days, socialists with a affinity for anything Russian and Putin.
I get it, they don’t like USA, they have a deep troubled relation to the country and its superpower status, which I actually find quite reasonable, USA has been doing a lot of dumb shit for a long time, there are things to critizise, but the enemy of USA isn’t automatically your friend, Russia is even worse, just like Soviet Russia was just as bad as Nazi Germany. For me as a socialist, I don’t look to countries to find solutions, I look to politics and the things we do to achieve a better world, fuck Russia and fuck Putin, master of 4D chess.

[Mark_Weston]

@triggercut

And so I’ve noticed on social media some marginally prominent folks in that space seem to have this weird affinity for Russia. And I wonder why that is.

Is it anti-establishmentism? For example, if the US and NATO are doing a thing, whatever that thing is, the opposite thing must be more virtuous?

Ever since somebody coined the term Occidentalism, it’s seemed apposite. To people for whom the USA is the avatar of capitalism, and the West in general is the source of all colonialism and racism, there’s a strong bias towards believing that any problem in the world is caused by the West. And that any conflict in which the West is involved, the West is in the wrong.

So I don’t think that, in general, this is about affinity for Russia. It’s just that these people know instinctively who the bad guys are, that the bad guys can never be in the right, and that therefore anyone opposing the bad guys must be justified in some way.

Quite a few of these people managed to find ways to defend and justify Milosevic and Assad.

[alekseivolchok]

Russians moved the remains of prince Grigory Potemkin from Kherson.

Yes, it’s that guy who gave the name to Potemkin village. Which, as we’ve all discovered this year, is a better symbol for Russia than Sputnik or ballet or whatever.

[scottagibson]

@triggercut

And I wonder why that is.

Is it anti-establishmentism? For example, if the US and NATO are doing a thing, whatever that thing is, the opposite thing must be more virtuous?

I think it’s just traditional pacifism / anti-militarism of the left. These people believe both that Russia is wrong to invade Ukraine, and that the Western establishment should be prepared to make concessions rather than expand or even prolong a fight to repel that invasion.

@KevinC

Lost tankies just trying to find their way home.

I don’t get the sense that all these signatories are tankies. I think some of them are just of the “all war is wrong and immoral and should be avoided at almost any price.”

[KevinC]

@scottagibson

I don’t get the sense that all these signatories are tankies. I think some of them are just of the “all war is wrong and immoral and should be avoided at almost any price.”

Oh, sorry, I wasn’t trying to say that the signatories were. I intended to direct it at this group triggercut mentions:

@triggercut

And so I’ve noticed on social media some marginally prominent folks in that space seem to have this weird affinity for Russia. And I wonder why that is.

[soundnfury]

@Janster

like Soviet Russia was just as bad as Nazi Germany.

If y’all haven’t read Vasiliy Grossman’s Life and Fate (which it seems hardly anyone has), he makes the parallel between Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany. Literarily, it’s an evolution of Tolstoy’s theme in War and Peace that the Russian aristocracy and the French are similar and that only the Russia people can defeat Napoleon. But, historically, Grossman was the first reporter to report from the Nazi camps, and he was Ukrainian. Life and Fate is thick, but it’s great.