19839

I don’t think the payload is all that big. Remember it has to be pushed by basically a commercial jetski engine.

19840

Amazing;

19841
19842

I would say, oh no, Russia is going to do something that will escalate the conflict with this Ukrainian grain shipment.

But, with what Navy?

19843

I still don’t think Russia is dumb enough to directly piss off Turkey on this one. Access to the Black Sea is something Russia needs and Turkey controls.

19844

Has there been confirmation the ‘new’ flagship has been sunk, or just damaged?

But even still I’d imagine they have all of their subs in working order, plus however many other missile cruiser /destroyers / corvettes… haven’t seen reports that Ukraine has made that big a dent in them other than the high profile Moskva.

But yeah, if they want to sink a grain ship, it’s risking the entire fleet. Or you let them get away with it, which again you can’t let them do as it’s a terrible precedent.

19845

What if Putin loses:

19846

He’s already lost. Even in the unlikely event of a military turnaround for Russia that ends up completing at least some of his goals, it’s too late for this ever to work out for him personally.

19847

Just wait until those million troops are mobilized.

19848

They arrive soon, don’t they?

19849

What do you mean he lost? He has successfully prevented Western plan of using Ukraine to turn Russians into transgender slaves and also canceling Dostoyevsky.

19850

That’s just what we want him to think. Once all those men are mobilized and on the front line we’ll unleash our top secret hormone therapy artillery. After that it’s swarms of miniaturized precision guided blade missiles aimed directly at their genitals. Then we activate the secret microchips planted in every copy of Dostoyevsky that replaces all of the content with Gender Queer. Mission Accomplished.

19851

I like it.

19852

Like seriously, for Putin victory is staying in power. It might get hard if this whole affair turns out obvious loss for Russia in every way, but as long as he saved Russia from gay bombs and Russians are not starving he’s probably staying in power for a long time.

19853

I guess if you can keep shifting the definition of victory downwards to match the current state of things, sure. But I’d argue you don’t get to start an unprovoked and unjustified war, have the outcome of that war be that you’re in a worse position in every conceivable way, and call that a victory. It’s not like he was on the cusp of being overthrown and this was his last play to hold on to power. Whatever the real reason he thought this invasion was a good idea, he’s going to come out of at best in a position where his internal grip on power is far less strong(I doubt he’ll manage any real achievement even if he’s in power for another decade), his influence on international matters is shot, his once mighty threats will be laughed at, and his country is going to be left in a far worse place economically and demographically. And while you can argue he doesn’t care about that last one, it will have a real effect on his ability to do any of the things he does care about.

So no, you don’t get to start a fight with someone perceived as weaker then you, have them beat you to a pulp to the point where you’re severely injured for life, and then declare victory because you didn’t die.

19854

Well, watch him. A lot of misunderstanding happens because people equate Putin with Russia and ask how is this or that beneficial to Russia, there must be some complex plan here. It doesn’t seem like Putin’s personal power or his friends power has suffered here. A lot of respectable people had lost money on this affair and Putin was probably in danger of coup, or maybe will be. But for now he has crippled Ukraine which is already good for maintaining Russian regime stability.

19855

I’m not saying he won’t do it. If he’s the one who ends this, he’ll necessarily need to claim it as a victory. But that doesn’t mean it will be so or perceived as one by the people who matter for helping him stay in power. Even with my real lack of understanding of Russian politics/society, I just don’t buy that this disaster somehow leaves him in a better position. Especially not compared to the lightning campaign to reinstall a friendly puppet government that he was seemingly after in the first place.

And has he really crippled Ukraine? The current trend tells me that they’ll end up politically more unified with a military flush with western equipment and full of veteran troops. We’ve also learned that prior to the war they were already ahead of Russia in training and doctrine. Something people wouldn’t have really believed before but can see clearly now.

19856

Before the war there was a clear trend of Ukraine becoming a better place to live than Russia and Belarus, two other Russian-speaking countries. It was a clear danger to Russian autacracy in that regard. And now no matter how worse it became to live in Russia it’s much worse in Ukraine. Great success!

19857

This is not good:

I think the West need to supply Ukraine with appropriate long range weapons - ATACM’s and F-16’s in response.

Though bad, I think this shows how bad off Russia is. A first rate power would not be forced to turn to Iran for long range weapons.

19858

This. We needed to send them those 6 months ago. I’m not sure how well F-16’s can be integrated into the Ukraine air force though,