19859

How Russia has failed at every level of strategy:

19860

But what’s his next play after Ukraine gets fresh shipments of shiny new home appliances and all of the ones the Russians pillaged start to break? Invasion isn’t really going to be feasible again.

I’m onboard with the idea Ukraine floated about ATACMs but with US targeting approval. Based on past statements it seems like the US would be okay with making Crimea a really miserable place for the Russian military this winter.

19861

Yeah. But it won’t get better for many years. Putin got there without a long term planning so who says this time it’ll be different? Also as Russian media reminds you daily, they have nukes. They can help with keeping Russia a better place to live.

19862

It seems the answer is always that the propaganda machine can spin any of this to look better for Russia. But if that’s the case, we’re kind of back to why declare war in the first place? Why couldn’t they spin the reality where Russia was strong and Ukraine was NATO puppet better than they can spin walking into a self-inflicted military blunder? They’ve made life shitty for a whole lot of people in Ukraine, but they haven’t exactly left Ukraine looking weak.

Where is the thing that is better for Putin now than it was before the war? That’s what I’m missing. And without that there is nothing that can be perceived as a victory, no matter how much he declares otherwise.

19863

I’m not sure that is true and if it was is crippling oneself in the process worth the effort. A crippled country does not usually retake stolen territory from an aggressor days after they declare it from now and forever part of Mother Russia.

Again not sure that is true (later part) because of the cost Russia has paid and how one values their Democracy. Why are so many people still Fleeing Russia? If things ended right now you would find plenty of people would prefer Ukraine and rebuilding it than staying in Russia. One has the backing of 95% of the world the other is an isolated outcast. Strip away Russian Propaganda and one of these is clearly a better place to be provided all hostilities stopped. Flash forward 5 years from “Peace” and it’s not even close.

19864

Future history books will probably call him one of the most prominent political actors of the first half of 21th century. If not for Putin, Russia could be a boring European country like Poland and Finland, a place where it’s nice to live but that you only hear about when some sitcom needs a white exotic person.

To think that it’s an important motivation for Putin is to show the magic of telepathy, I know. Before the war I thought his talk about history was just populism and he’s just services oligarchy. He still does that but I believe he’s really concerned with his place in history. He makes sure Russia will be crippled in decades, but for now it’s an economy the size of South Korea stealing headlines all over the world.

19865

I’ll agree with that for sure in regards to his Legacy. It’s easy to steal headlines when you use a nuclear powered microphone.

19866

Propaganda is not that important here. But I agree that the goal of making Ukraine less of an ideological threat that demonstrates that you can have a functioning prosperous democracy while speaking Russian is probably less relevant today. Hard to know what happens inside Kremlin but I suppose some people there still hope Europe will freeze, stop supporting Ukraine and it will all be like it was before the war. Others probably see the positive sides of isolation: this way internal unrest is less likely, and Russia is big enough for those people to still live in luxury.

And the more people flee the country the fewer issues with disgruntled people you have domestically. Modern autocracies rarely close borders.

19867

Yes and no. While you may have “less” disgruntled people initially you are showing the others there is a better way free of consequence. The more people that don’t put up with the BS by leaving tends to persuade others to maybe consider not putting up with it as well. There will be a tipping point and Russia will crack down on it like they do.

Good discussion, really enjoy your input and unique perspective from where I am sitting. While I do have some cousins in Poland and more distant Relatives in Romania I am 3 generations into the US at this point.

19868

Plus you’re going to have a lot of unhappy people coming back from the war. But on the bright side for Russia, they already have Alexei Navalny safely behind bars and don’t have to worry about Ukraine shipping him to the border in an armored train car.

19869

Don’t take me wrong, these are all valid points. If Russia collapses within a year I will not be surprised. But for now, it seems like it will slowly sink for decades.

19870

I’d agree with that as I suspect Putin’s successor to be very…Putin like. Unless of course there is some sorta huge people’s revolution. Then I would except him to be only mostly Putin like.

19871

And note that I’m not arguing Putin will be out of power anytime soon. I just don’t think there’s any way he’s in a better position for the rest of his reign than he was in before he started this dumb war. Of course Russia is screwed for decades to come, it seems to always be their fate.

19872

Isn’t Iran selling/giving ballistic missiles to Russia a violation of some form of sanctions on them, as well as sanctions on Russia? Seems it would be pretty justifiable to figure out a way to make sure those missiles never get used…

19873
19874

That can not be true.

19875

I mean, stop those grain shipments or maybe we’ll fire on ships - that are under protection by Turkey, the UN (and I suspect US-flagged vessels) - was already pretty whack.

At least that’s the only threat close to making sense out of withdrawing from the deal.

Kinda like how “omg why you shipping all those arms to Ukraine they’re gonna end up on the black market!” has worked out so well for them.

19876

I particularly like this: ““The Russian Federation believes that the guarantees received at this time are adequate and resumes implementation of the agreement – the initiative for the safe transportation of grain and food from Ukrainian ports (the Black Sea Initiative) – which had been halted following the terrorist attack in Sevastopol.””

When the Ukraine conducts a military operation against their warship fleet, they call it terrorism.

19877
19878

The primary story on TWZ’s update today was worth reading. Discusses Ukrainian partisan attacks and Russia’s lack of security/manpower to stop them.